I was an Expos fan. In 2004, I listened to many of the games during that last season by means of MLB's GameDay audio. Compared to the previous two seasons of the MLB Expos, that demanded a degree of fortitude and loyalty. I still bear a deep grudge towards Brian O'Nora, who during an interleague game called a foul ball fair for a home run. When the Expos were moved to Washington, I was upset and my initial response was to look for an alternative team to follow, settling on the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, as luck would have it, the Diamondbacks were playing in Washington at the start of the 2005 season, and I decided to listen to Charlie Slowes and Dave Shea. I was charmed by Slowes in particular, and gradually my familiarity with the 2005 Nationals' roster holdovers from the Expos, and their division-leading antics, had me sticking by the team.
For younger Nationals' fans, who found that where baseball teams are concerned it is better to receive than to give, the kind of humility required to hang on to fandom of a team that is moved is possibly hard to envisage. Longer-term Washington baseball fans might know the feeling well, especially after the original Nationals/Senators became the Twins and went on to a very successful 1960s while the Replacements really gave meaning to the old saying, 'First in war, &c'. In this case, I was rooting for a bunch of people who had made life very miserable with their taunts on message boards during 2002-4. Not many Expos' rooters followed me to Washington. In fact, many would despise me for sticking with the franchise.
The next four years saw me dividing my fandom between the Nationals and the team that I actually grew up with, the Detroit Tigers. The improbable 2006 World Series run by the Tigers did a lot to draw my interest, but my preference for National League baseball (no DH! — the reason I became a fan of a National League team in the first place) also pulled me back towards the ex-Expos. I was tugged in two directions.
In 2009, I made a conscious decision at the start of spring training to refocus on the Nationals, and I started writing this blog to help with that. The title of this blog is, in fact, a Latin pun on 'D.C.'. I paradoxically enjoyed following that losing 2009 team, despite its problems. But there were also annoyances, such as the horrible Rob Dibble & Bob Carpenter television duo, and the fact that Nationals Park clearly referenced not the Nationals' franchise history, but the history of Washington baseball. Now that's great for Washington baseball fans, but it creates problems outside of the District. And, in fact, there has been a constant tension between the Expos' heritage and the marketing problem of building a new fan-base. I've never really been comfortable with the Nationals borrowing the Twins' past, given that there was an Expos' past that the Nationals had every right to. But I also understood that the Expos' past could not speak with much authority to Washington's baseball fans.
2012, right down to Mr Slowes' outstanding home-run call on Jayson Werth's walk-off in Game #4 of the NLDS against the Cardinals, was for me a culmination. Despite being in Canada, not Washington, despite being nurtured into my baseball fandom in Tiger Stadium, not DC Stadium, my elation was just as great as that of anyone's along the Potomac. And the sadness that followed after the Game #5 loss was equally as great. I had followed the construction of that team from 2009 with interest. Those events hurt a bit more than the Tigers' loss to the Giants in the World Series. But when the 2013 season rolled around, something had changed between me and the Nationals. I still don't know what, but I felt a distance that wasn't there before. Was it the free agency of John Lannan? The acquisition of Denard Span? The trade of Michael Morse? Was it the fact that the bitter loss of the 2012 NLDS had cemented their identity as a Washington team, as opposed to a continuing example of the Expos' futile pursuit of post-season glory? Not even Slowes & Jageler could shift a sensation that something was rotten in the state of my Nationals'fandom. The 2014 season simply reinforced these feelings of distance. Instead I invested considerable emotion in the ups and downs of the Tigers, who literally uglied their way into an AL Central pennant.
Then, last Saturday night, there was the 1924 Flag That Will Fly Forever, marking the Washington team's World Series victory that season. Except that flag belongs to the Twins, who took it with them along with the makings of a competitive team when they left in 1960. Now I gather that something like it may have been flying over Nationals Park since it opened in 2008, but on Saturday the prominence given it in the television coverage rankled with me. First Washington baseball fans took someone else's team, and now they are taking another club's history. That's one way to look at it. One could just as easily argue that the Twins left it there when they moved to another city. But neutral arbiters have assigned it to the Twins. It's one of those areas where one's predisposition will determine what side of the argument one will find oneself on.
As the Tigers crashed out of the ALDS in miserable fashion, I came to a conclusion: the Expo in me has to let go of the Nationals. Unless I wind up living in the Chesapeake Bay area in the future, I will focus my baseball team fandom on the Tigers. Tonight will be the last game I watch as a fan of the Nationals. I will still make the post-season blog posts I intend to make about the 2014 Nationals, but they will be the last gestures towards a team that I have followed, in some fashion or another, since 2005. Whether the Nationals do or die, I say ave atque vale to a part of my life that sought to maintain ties to a dead franchise and a memory of past times.
Showing posts with label 2012 Washington Nationals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Washington Nationals. Show all posts
Monday, 6 October 2014
Tuesday, 29 May 2012
2012 Game 45
Highest Leverage PA: 2.2, PA#35 Minor GDP vs Strasburg, Braves 4th. Highest WPA/LI Value: .255, PA #44, Uggla HR vs Strasburg, Braves 5th. Highest WPA/LI Fldg Play: .068, PA#35 Minor GDP vs Strasburg, Braves 4th. QMAX rating: (5,5) for Strasburg. Bullpen Award: Hero's Palm for Gorzelanny.Batters' WPA/LI Values:
Espinosa 0.156 Harper 0.114 Tracy 0.061 Ankiel 0.036 LaRoche 0.028 Nady 0.007 Strasburg -0.004 Desmond -0.011 Gorzelanny -0.033 Zimmerman -0.043 Moore -0.050 Flores -0.074And this one also belongs to the Nationals' hitting. This looks like Strasburg's worst start of the season so far, but the bullpen did a better job of holding back the Braves than they did on Friday night. Espinosa's and Harper's home runs were supported by crucial extra-base hits from Desmond, Ankiel and Nady. A solid team effort with the bats.
Sunday, 27 May 2012
2012 Game 44
Highest Leverage PA: 3.1, PA#58 Zimmerman 2B vs Hudson, Nationals 7th. Highest WPA/LI Value: .115, PA #7, Ankiel 3B vs Hudson, Nationals 1st QMAX rating: (5,5) for Detwiler. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' WPA/LI Values:
Zimmerman 0.094 Ankiel 0.092 Desmond 0.069 Wang 0.020 Tracy 0.000 Harper -0.013 Flores -0.020 Lombardozzi -0.036 Detwiler -0.045 Espinosa -0.073 LaRoche -0.144And this one belongs to the Nationals' hitting. I don't count this as Detwiler's worst outing, because he didn't give up many hits. His command (or the umpire's strike zone) deserted him in this game as he gave up more walks than innings pitched. Also, is the #5 starter now going to be by committee?
Having lamented the lack of a sequential offense in my last game digest, we were treated to two examples of that in this game, with single, double, single, hit by pitch and triple producing four runs in the first. Then, in the seventh, two walks and two doubles added another three runs. Zimmerman's doubles in both of these innings helped him top the WPA/LI list. And this happened against a good team (although the Reds have been looking a bit better of late)! This game filled me with hope in the way the series against the Orioles triggered some unhappy flashbacks.
Friday, 25 May 2012
2012 Game 43
Highest Leverage PA: 2.3, PA #43, LaRoche 4-3g vs Hamels, Nationals 6th. Highest WPA/LI Value: .204, PA #15, Fontenot 1B vs Jackson, Phillies 2nd. QMAX rating: Success Square (4,3) for Jackson. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' WPA/LI Values:
Harper 0.086 Flores 0.071 Espinosa 0.009 Nady -0.031 Zimmerman -0.041 Ankiel -0.065 Lombardozzi -0.080 Jackson -0.107 Desmond -0.119 LaRoche -0.225Apologies for the week-long AWOL. The absence was partly a consequence of a decision to switch from my own system of 'leveraged win values' to the Baseball-Reference.com method of Win Probability Added/Leverage Index (or WPA/LI for short). I will explain the effect of this change in a subsequent post, but there is one important one. Those games I don't have a chance to listen to in 'real time' can be analysed more quickly with the help of Baseball Reference.
Wednesday's game with the Phillies was another example of those games where the bats let down a decent, rather than good, pitching performance. Edwin Jackson pitched just well enough to have a game that a team will win more often than not, but as WPA/LI shows oh-so-starkly, the Nationals' hitters couldn't hold up their end of the bargain. Three times the Nationals had a runner on third base, but couldn't convert that 'Red Zone' visit into a score. I am growing concerned at the Nationals' difficulty in sustaining a sequential offense, as opposed to the home runs like Adam LaRoche's 9th inning effort. But that's a topic for another post.
Friday, 18 May 2012
2012 Game 36
Highest Leverage PA: 2.5, PA #7, Baker 1B vs Strasburg, Padres' 1st. Highest Clutch Value: .130, PA #7, Baker 1B vs Strasburg, Padres' 1st. QMAX rating: Hit Hard (6,4) for Strasburg. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche 0.116 Desmond 0.101 Gorzelanny 0.042 Harper 0.041 Lombardozzi 0.010 Strasburg -0.008 Flores -0.031 Ankiel -0.053 Espinosa -0.089 Bernadina -0.126 Zimmerman -0.143A dispiriting game, this was quite the opposite of Monday night's. After this, one can only go home and hope for tomorrow being a better day. I was a bit concerned with Ryan Perry's innings. Either he's not getting enough work to stay sharp, or he's really the seventh man in the bullpen and ought to be looking nervously towards Chien Ming Wang's return. Meanwhile, I find myself thinking more playing time needs to be found for Steve Lombardozzi. He did a decent job in Ryan Zimmerman's absence, and seems to get his hits despite warming the bench for extended periods.
Thursday, 17 May 2012
2012 Game 35
Highest Leverage PA: 4.2, PA #78, Guzman GDP vs Burnett, Padres' 9th. Highest Clutch Value: .165, PA #56, Desmond 2B vs Mikoleas, Nationals' 6th. Lowest Opp. Clutch Val: -.218, PA #78, Guzman GDP vs Burnett, Padres' 9th. QMAX rating: Hit Hard (6,3) for Detwiler. Bullpen Award: Hero's Palm for Burnett.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Desmond 0.234 Zimmerman 0.169 Bernadina 0.135 Flores 0.081 Tracy 0.062 Ankiel 0.041 Nady -0.007 Stammen -0.024 Leon -0.032 Detwiler -0.042 Harper -0.084 Espinosa -0.108 LaRoche -0.149This was a very good result for the Nationals. They turned around from a heartbreaker in Cincinnati, went the next evening with not much rest after a night of travel to play in unpleasant conditions, and hung on in a ding-dong battle until they came out the winners. It speaks a lot of the character of this team. Unlike a lot of sabermetrically minded types, I put some value on what can't be measured, because in results like this, though we can't measure it, we can see it on display. Furthermore, it wasn't just one player who carried the team, but an effort involving the top and the bottom of the lineup, and even the chaps off the bench.
A word, though, about Ross Detwiler. I've been very excited about his start to this season, but it is a bad time for him to suffer a bit of a slump, with Wang's return from the disabled list closer every day. Although he continues to exhibit exemplary control, he has got knocked around a bit in his last two starts. I'm just a little worried.
2012 Game 34
Highest Leverage PA: 10.9, PA #87, Votto HR vs Rodriguez, Reds' 9th. Highest Clutch Value: 1.341, PA #87, Votto HR vs Rodriguez, Reds' 9th. Lowest Opp. Clutch Val: -.130, PA #84, Cairo FL5 vs Rodriguez, Reds' 9th. QMAX rating: Success Square (4,3) for Jackson. Bullpen Award: Goat's Head for Rodriguez.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Ankiel 0.171 Espinosa 0.143 Tracy 0.099 Bernadina 0.079 Flores -0.004 Harper -0.018 Nady -0.026 LaRoche -0.028 Desmond -0.042 Moore -0.038 Zimmerman -0.062 Jackson -0.073Who would want to be a closer? To paraphrase what Ryan Zimmerman says in the advertisements I hear on the radio broadcasts, if you can't handle the stress, maybe you're in the wrong profession. Henry Rodriguez coughed up a home-run ball to Joey Votto, and that was that. The Nationals dropped out of first place.
Tuesday, 15 May 2012
2012 Game 33
Highest Leverage PA: 3.9, PA #39, Harper 4-6 force vs Latos, Nats' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value: .160, PA #33, Ramos HR vs Latos, Nationals' 5th.
.160, PA #45, Espinosa HR vs Arredondo, Nats' 6th.
Lowest Opp. Clutch Val: -.120, PA #50, Phillips L6-3 DP vs Zimmermann, Reds' 6th
QMAX rating: Elite Square (2,2) for Zimmermann.
Bullpen Award: Hero's Palm for Rodriguez.Batters' Leveraged Win Values: Espinosa 0.277 Ramos 0.158 LaRoche 0.052 Desmond 0.031 Zimmermann 0.006 Moore -0.016 Bernadina -0.047 Zimmerman -0.108 Ankiel -0.193 Harper -0.196Wilson Ramos' torn ACL marred one of those tense, splendid games that are a joy for fans but probably a bit stressful for the players. Ramos hasn't received a whole lot of notice in the Season of Bryce, but he was putting together a useful season as a key contributor with the bat in clutch situations. The Nationals may well miss him more than the few weeks of Jayson Werth or Michael Morse. Contending teams always feature a couple of chaps like Ramos having career years from the lower reaches of the lineup. At least he went out on a high note with that homer. As far as the game went, on the manager's show the next day Davey Johnson commented on Bryce Harper's current troubles with the bat by highlighting exactly that 4-6 force out singled out as the most leveraged plate appearance of the game. No consolation to Harper that if he was going to be got out in spectacular fashion, it had to be at such a highly-leveraged moment.
CORRECTION
A careless copying error led to Clippard getting a Hero's Palm that should have gone to Henry Rodriguez. The Bullpen Awards table has been modified.
— 17 May 2012
2012 Game 32
Highest Leverage PA: 3.1, PA #73, Heisey F5 vs Mattheus, Reds' 8th. Highest Clutch Value: .172, PA #2, Bernadina HR vs Leake, Nationals' 1st. Lowest Opp. Clutch Value: -.081, PA #73, Heisey F5 vs Mattheus, Reds' 8th. QMAX rating: (4,5) for Gonzalez. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Bernadina 0.190 LaRoche 0.104 Zimmerman 0.052 Desmond 0.036 Espinosa 0.015 Ramos 0.005 Stammen -0.003 Ankiel -0.016 Gonzalez -0.025 Harper -0.069You remember those games earlier in the season, where the Nationals would squeeze out a victory through some timely hitting? This is a through-the-looking-glass version, in which some timely pitching squeezed out a victory. The Nationals did not have a good performance from Gio Gonzalez, but a mediocre one, and Craig Stammen managed to pitch his way into a jam in his third inning of work, following two solid innings. Stammen might have got a Hero's Palm had he not needed to be rescued by Ryan Mattheus. In other words, the pitching did just enough for the victory, in a situation that could easily have turned ugly twice over, in the 5th and again in the 8th.
Sunday, 13 May 2012
2012 Game 31
Highest Leverage PA: 4.9, PA #49, Jones K vs Strasburg, Pirates' 6th. Highest Clutch Value: .283, PA #40, LaRoche HR vs Correia, Nationals' 9th. Lowest Opp. Clutch Value: -.132, PA#49, Jones K vs Strasburg, Pirates' 6th QMAX rating: Success Square (3,4) for Strasburg. Bullpen Award: Hero's Palm for Tyler Clippard.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche 0.318 Bernadina 0.095 Strasburg 0.053 Ankiel 0.019 Zimmerman 0.013 Tracy 0.010 Harper -0.014 Lombardozzi -0.021 Flores -0.081 Desmond -0.112 Espinosa -0.208A game of True Outcomes, with Stephen Strasburg's thirteen strikeouts and the Nationals runs all coming on walks and home runs. Even the Pirates' 6th inning was dominated by True Outcomes, as only Jose Tabata's leadoff 6-3 ground out actually involved any fielders other than the catcher. The rest of the plate appearances were walks or strikeouts. Taking a look at 'the other side of the hill' (to allude to the Iron Duke), one notes that Kevin Correia also pitched into the Success Square, at a 3,3 rate. That means his outing was a little bit better than Strasburg's, for all the strikeouts. The difference is one walk. In QMAX, how you get outs is irrelevant.
Friday, 11 May 2012
2012 Game 30
Highest Leverage PA: 6.8, PA #63, Ankiel K vs Grilli, Nationals' 8th. Highest Clutch Value: .145, PA #70, Desmond 2B vs Hanrahan, Nats' 9th. QMAX rating: Success square (4,2) for Detwiler. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Desmond 0.144 Nady 0.123 LaRoche 0.052 Lombardozzi 0.029 Tracy -0.012 Detwiler -0.027 Ramos -0.031 Moore -0.056 Espinosa -0.081 Zimmerman -0.088 Harper -0.212 Ankiel -0.236Ross Detwiler put in yet another quality quality start, although it was his worst outing since 15 April. Despite that, the Nationals' bats couldn't come through before Detwiler left the game. Indeed, this game was another example of the Nationals lineup being unable to create a league-average number of runs for a game. It might be easy to point a finger at Ian Desmond's brain-cramp in the Pirates' 3rd inning, as being at fault, but then where does that leave McCutchen's home run in the Pirates' 8th? Desmond, in fact, did sterling work with the bat. If I was to point an accusing finger anywhere, it would be at the disaster of the Nationals' 8th inning. Not a single run was scored then. Bad show, chaps.
Wednesday, 9 May 2012
2012 Game 29
I lost this morning to migraine, so the batter numbers are still delayed.
But it wasn't just Rodriguez. Tyler Clippard did fans no favours either, even after deducting the effects of Ian Desmond's misplay. Clippard's win probablity effect wasn't anywhere close to Rodriguez' disastrous number, but it was still in negative territory.
Despite all the disappointment, though, it was a very good game to follow. So thanks to the players for battling hard, even if they came up short.
Highest Leverage PA: 6.1, PA #69, Barajas HR vs Rodriguez, Pirates' 9th. Highest Clutch Value: .750, PA #69, Barajas HR vs Rodriguez, Pirates' 9th. Lowest Opp Clutch Value: -.157, PA #68, Navarro K vs Rodriguez, Pirates' 9th. QMAX rating: Success square (3,2) for Jackson. Bullpen Award: Goat's Horns for Rodriguez.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche 0.624 Zimmerman 0.083 Jackson 0.078 Ramos 0.074 Ankiel 0.027 Harper -0.016 Lombardozzi -0.051 Bernadina -0.095 Espinosa -0.120 Desmond -0.250Now here was a game that took me back to the 2009 season, when the bullpen seemed to be a Fountain of Misery, and the Bullpen Goat of the Day award was a bit of fun to relieve the anguish. This was when I started to keep track of win probability, as in comparing the chance of winning when the reliever came in, and subtracting that from the chance of winning when the reliever left the game. Last night, Henry Rodriguez managed to convert his total for the season from positive to negative territory, which was quite something since when he entered the game in the 9th his win probability contribution was .362 in games between 11 April and 4th May.
But it wasn't just Rodriguez. Tyler Clippard did fans no favours either, even after deducting the effects of Ian Desmond's misplay. Clippard's win probablity effect wasn't anywhere close to Rodriguez' disastrous number, but it was still in negative territory.
Despite all the disappointment, though, it was a very good game to follow. So thanks to the players for battling hard, even if they came up short.
2012 Game 28 NATITUDE series
Work took longer than I anticipated, so the batting ratings will now be published tomorrow, including the results of tonight's stunning game.
Highest Leverage PA: 2.2, PA #19, Rollins 3g vs Zimmermann, Phils' 3rd.
2.2, PA #20, Pierre 43g vs Zimmermann, Phils' 3rd.
Highest Clutch Value: .221, PA #26, Pence HR vs Zimmermann, Phils' 4th.
Lowest Opp Clutch Value: -.074, PA #37, Victorino 463gdp vs Zimmermann, 5th.
QMAX rating: (4,4) for Zimmermann.
Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values: Harper 0.117 Bernadina 0.040 Desmond -0.001 Moore -0.019 Werth -0.020 Tracy -0.036 Ramos -0.042 Zimmermann -0.042 Espinosa -0.068 Nady -0.076 Ankiel -0.086 Lombardozzi -0.122I thought long and hard about awarding a Hero's Palm to Craig Stammen. He did yeoman's work in the 7th, coming in with the bases loaded and getting the team out of the jam. However, the palms are only awarded in victories. Otherwise, this was a thoroughly unremarkable game for the most part, even with Ryan Perry's implosion in the 9th. It came too late to do any real damage, although those two runs in the bottom of the inning would have been considerably more valuable if there had been no implosion.
Tuesday, 8 May 2012
2012 Game 27 NATITUDE Series
Highest Leverage PA: 2.6, PA #41, Harper F7 vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
2.6, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value: .320, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Lowest Opp Clutch Value: -.047, PA #7, Galvis F6 vs Gonzalez, Phillies 2nd.
QMAX rating: Elite Square (2,2) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values: Werth 0.245 Lombardozzi 0.189 Ankiel 0.161 Tracy 0.058 Gonzalez 0.056 Desmond -0.031 Espinosa -0.054 Ramos -0.099 Harper -0.129Here's a game where the usefulness of the Leverage Index in assigning value is readily apparent. Jayson Werth's 5th inning home run boosted the Nationals' chances of winning by 64 per cent. Ian Desmond's and Chad Tracy's homers only by 5 per cent each. The difference is context. Werth's fence-clearer came with the Nationals down by a run in the 5th. The Nationals were up by three in the bottom of the 6th when Desmond's blast occurred. Tracy's came with the Nationals up by four in the 7th. Basically, leverage tells us that a home team with a three-run lead after six innings, is very likely to win the game already. There just aren't enough PAs left for the visitors to get the two or three rallies they need to make up the difference.
Monday, 7 May 2012
2012 Game 26 NATITUDE Series
A busy weekend got in the way of my being able to blog. By the time the Nationals play again, de civitate sabermetricarum will be caught up PLUS with the long-promised batting rankings in place.
Highest Leverage PA: 6.4, PA #91, Ramos 1B vs Schwimmer, Nationals' 11th. Highest Clutch Value: .357, PA #66, Flores 2B vs Qualls, Nationals' 8th. Lowest Clutch Value: -.096, PA #73, Galvez F7 vs Rodriguez, Phillies 9th. QMAX rating: Success Square (2,3) for Strasburg. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Ramos 0.333 Flores 0.236 Tracy 0.230 Ankiel 0.164 Bernadina 0.058 Nady 0.030 Harper 0.028 Strasburg -0.016 Espinosa -0.032 Lombardozzi -0.044 Moore -0.060 Werth -0.172 Desmond -0.354ALL HAIL PINCH HITTERS! They earned a .421 Leveraged Win Value (a/k/a 'clutch hitting') for the Nationals in this game, with Ramos, Bernadina and Nady all contributing. A team only needs a .500 value to win a game, at least on paper, so the pinch hitters basically did it all themselves. It may come as a surprise that Flores' double in the sixth out-clutched Bernadina's game-winning blow in the 11th, but it goes back to what I was saying about how when the home team ties the game in late innings, it puts home-field advantage into play. The bullpen also played an important role, but no individual stood out. Poor Ian Desmond's recent surge was unceremoniously halted in a long game. Those fielder's choices in the 6th and 8th really hurt
Friday, 4 May 2012
2012 Game 25
Highest Leverage PA: 2.9, PA #59, Upton F8 vs Rodriguez, D'backs' 9th. Highest Clutch Value: .139, PA #43, Harper 2B vs Kennedy, Nationals' 6th. Lowest Clutch Value: -.114, PA #31, Pollock GDP vs Detilwer, D'backs' 5th. QMAX rating: Success Square (2,4) for Detwiler. Bullpen Award: Hero's Palm for Rodriguez.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Harper 0.105 Desmond 0.061 Ankiel 0.027 Werth 0.013 Tracy -0.013 Bernadina -0.016 Detwiler -0.053 Espinosa -0.094 Ramos -0.094 Lombardozzi -0.096This game was a pitching victory. Not only did Ross Detwiler put in another above-average start for a FIFTH STARTER (who normally are the dregs of the starting rotation), but three successive pitchers came out of the bullpen in highish-leverage situations and navigated to successful conclusions. Ryan Mattheus broke new ground by being brought in with the Leverage Index registering 2.3. this is his highest reading of the season so far, and suggests that Davey Johnson has developed a lot of confidence in him. Henry Rodriguez faced the highest leverage of any reliever, and acquitted himself nicely.
Will Rodriguez get an outing if a save situation arises tonight? He has pitched two days in a row.
Thursday, 3 May 2012
2012 Game 24
Highest Leverage PA: 5.2, PA #71, Desmond HR vs Putz, Nationals' 9th. Highest Clutch Value: .640, PA #71, Desmond HR vs Putz, Nationals' 9th. QMAX rating: None (5,3) for Jackson. Bullpen Award: Hero's Palm for Stammen.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Desmond 0.594 Harper 0.310 Werth 0.126 Lombardozzi 0.083 Ramos -0.025 Jackson -0.041 Moore -0.068 Nady -0.075 Espinosa -0.133 Ankiel -0.135 LaRoche -0.197Pity poor Ian Desmond, who has bust out of a slump. The last two days his Leveraged Win (or 'Clutch') Values with the bat have been in positive territory for the first time in a while. Yet all the headline attention has gone to Bryce Harper. Well, he's taking it for the team, I'm sure.
As you can see, the game was won by the bats for a change. The only thing I'd point out is that Stammen's fine two-inning stint produced a good chunk of value, too. So he gets a Hero's Palm.
Wednesday, 2 May 2012
2012 Game 23
Highest Leverage PA: 3.1, PA #45, Ankiel GDP vs Cahill, Nationals' 6th.
3.1, PA #61, Cahill GDP vs Mattheus, D'backs' 8th.
Highest Clutch Value: .120, PA #44, Lombardozzi 1B vs Cahill, Nats' 6th.
QMAX rating: Soldier of Fortune (6,2) for Zimmermann.
Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values: Lombardozzi 0.099 Desmond 0.073 Bernadina 0.026 Werth 0.025 Zimmermann -0.043 Harper -0.071 Espinosa -0.074 Ramos -0.077 LaRoche -0.104 Ankiel -0.293This loss was the most disconcerting one of the season so far, at least for me. As the Leveraged PA and 'Clutch' Value numbers indicate, the Nationals lost the game in the sixth inning, when Cahill induced Ankiel's double play ball. (Ankiel's horrible Leveraged Win Value is largely made up of the -.208 value accrued in this single plate appearance.) That was followed by the disastrous Diamondbacks' 7th, when an intentional walk came back to bite the Nationals in the nether parts. At the moment, four runs is an insurmountable lead for the level of offense the Nationals are achieving.
A note on Zimmermann's QMAX rating — To quote the fabled Big Bad Baseball Annual, the Soldier of Fortune outing is the kind 'where pitchers with exceptional control can work effectively despite giving up more hits than innings pitched'. That is to say, Zimmermann pitched well enough to entertain the possiblity of a win, although not the likelihood. It is, as it were, the geographical antipode of the Power Precipice.
Tuesday, 1 May 2012
2012 Game 22
Highest Leverage PA: 3.3, PA #46, Loney 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th. Highest Clutch Value: .172, PA #46, Londy 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th. Highest Nats' Clutch Value: .073, PA #21, Desmond 2B vs Capuano, Nationals' 4th. QMAX rating: Power Precipice (2,5) for Gonzalez. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche 0.032 Moore 0.026 Harper -0.007 Desmond -0.014 Lombardozzi -0.024 Ankiel -0.041 Gonzalez -0.043 Tracy -0.059 Espinosa -0.068 Flores -0.170 Nady -0.190So the Nationals finished a six-game western road trip going 2-4. We have got a better measure of the team after this, as we can see that the problem is that they do not have enough offense to carry a playoff-calibre pitching staff into the post-season. It could be a team-wide slump, but for this particular game I question Davey Johnson's lineup. migraine led to Jayson Werth being a late scratch, which is the sort of thing that can't be helped, but Danny Espinosa is not the player I would have put in his place at #3. I would have gone with either "Country" (as opposed to "Mary") Tyler Moore or Bryce Harper, and probably Moore. The fact is, though Gio Gonzalez fell off the Power Precipice in the sixth, he still pitched well enough for a win, if he had the hitters to back him up.
2012 Game 21
Highest Leverage event: 7.4, PA #74, Uribe scores on wild pitch, Dodgers' 9th. Highest Leverage PA: 5.7, PA #74, Kennedy FC vs Rodriguez, Dodgers' 9th. Highest Leveraged Win Value: .363, PA #72, Uribe vs Rodriguez, Dodgers' 9th. Highest Nats' Lev Win Value: .178, PA #44, LaRoche HR vs Billingsley, Nats' 7th. QMAX rating: Elite Square (2,1) for Strasburg. Bullpen Award: Goat's Horns for Henry Rodriguez.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche 0.239 Ramos 0.096 Espinosa 0.069 Strasburg 0.019 Harper 0.013 Tracy 0.003 Ankiel -0.023 Werth -0.124 Lombardozzi -0.181 Desmond -0.204An unmitigated disaster. Taking into account the leverage index and the win value of the event, Uribe's scoring on a wild pitch was worth more to the Dodgers than Kemp's game-winning home run. The reason for this is that this event made it more likely that the Dodgers would win the game in the end. That's the way leverage works — it helps identify the turning point of the game. Home teams have the advantage, especially in extra innings. Once the game was tied, the odds favoured the Dodgers.
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