Washington Nationals Fielding in Review 2014

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers, one that closes the book on the 2014 Nationals fielding as monitored on this blog. ('Last time' was a l-o-o-o-n-n-g time ago, the end of July.) My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        8.8     +1.8    0.2
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.8     -2.9   -2.6
Span (CF)          -4.7     -4.3    .924    -.010       .919        8.2     +3.6    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       2.3     +2.2    .784    -.004       .787        5.0     -0.7    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -5.0     -3.1    .793    -.007       .796      -13.2     -5.2    n/a
Harper (LF)         1.5     +2.8    .886    +.014       .881        1.1     +6.6    n/a
Desmond (SS)        0.1     +2.4    .822    +.019       .799      -10.3     +0.5    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.6     +2.9    .931    -.002       .906      -10.0     -1.4    n/a
Rendon (3B)         4.2     +3.8    .683    -.016       .709        4.2     +1.8    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .907    +.002       .881      - 3.0     -3.6    n/a
A. Cabrera (2B)    -2.2     ---     .758     ---        .787      - 1.5     ---     n/a 
minimum 220 innings

I have been tracking fielding in this manner for a few years now, and my only solid conclusion is that by and large outfielders tend to find their RZR level for the season quite quickly, while infielders can be more mercurial. A metric like UZR, by contrast, swings quite wildly over the course of the season at all positions. This is the fundamental problem with metrics that apply a relative standard, which is the approach adopted the most widely accepted fielding metrics. This is to say that most fielding metrics measure a player's performance against an average for the position throughout the league. I find this deeply unsatisfactory. I have been thinking about this problem, and have a solution that I'd like to test; but I make no promises about posting it here at any time.

Moving on to the actual metrics, the most important thing for Nationals fans to note, I think, is just how much Bryce Harper improved as a left-fielder over the course of the season. Nonetheless, he is not much more than an average fielder overall. The defensive star for the Nationals seems to be Anthony Rendon, if one believes UZR, but RZR paints a very different picture. What is strange is that UZR gives him a high range value. One can only throw up one's hands in despair at such a divergent picture. DRA likes Denard Span best, but UZR seems to think he was one of the worse fielders. RZR suggests he was about average. Again, we see a slight divergence between RZR and UZR on Span's ability to range the outfield. Well, at least we can all agree that Adam LaRoche was a bit of a defensive liability, surely. Nope — though UZR and DRA see him as the worst regular on the team, RZR thinks his range was a little bit below league average.

The only person on whom the different metrics reach a consensus is Asdrubal Cabrera, who was got for his bat. Just as well, too. He is seen as a subpar with the glove.

Let me conclude with a note about Jose Lobaton. He was picked up to provide some defensive help, and to be honest he did exactly that. DRA likes his fielding, and his pitch-framing, which last time I checked was -1.7, rose into positive territory. A good acquisition, Mr Rizzo!

Nationals 2014 Game 23: Hoc Quid Sit Sit

Highest Leverage PA:     6.4, PA#78, Espinosa pop-up vs Stauffer, Nationals 9th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .345, PA#101, Lobaton line-out double play vs Street, Nationals 12th.
QMAX rating:             (3,3) for Zimmermann (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Harper         0.149
Werth          0.125
Espinosa       0.073
Span           0.009
Zimmermann    -0.010
LaRoche       -0.014
Frandsen      -0.055
McLouth       -0.065
Walters       -0.068
Moore         -0.116
Desmond       -0.145
Lobaton       -0.265
Rendon        -0.316

In the middle of the eighth inning, I thought 'this game has extra innings written all over it.' I'm not normally a fan of extra innings, but this game held my interest as the innings were filled with a degree of tension that often seems absent from extra innings.

I probably shouldn't credit all the negative value of PA#101 to Jose Lobaton, as it sounded from the radio guys as though Bryce Harper messed up the play. But normally I give full value of a double play to the batter, so I'm going to maintain that here.

I could have awarded both Hero's Palms and a Goat's Head, but in one case the head cancelled out the palm, and the other Hero's Palm didn't seem appropriate in this loss.

Nationals 2014 Game 22: Miraculum die S. Georgii

Highest Leverage PA:     4.8, PA#79, Werth double vs Fieri, Nationals 9th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .317, PA#79, Werth double vs Fieri, Nationals 9th.
QMAX rating:             (3,4) for Gonzalez (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Werth          0.214
LaRoche        0.176
Espinosa       0.090
Span           0.020
Gonzalez       0.015
Rendon         0.010
Lobaton       -0.008
Harper        -0.015
McLouth       -0.042
Walters       -0.054
Desmond       -0.131

So when we got to the ninth inning, I think we all had given up. There was a note of resignation in Charlie Slowes' voice. I was planning to write something about how the Nationals have been a bit disappointing this season. Bryce Harper's two-strike bunt was attracting my ire.

Then, Saint George came to our rescue to slay the... Well, maybe one shouldn't take that too far, but the Angels were certainly Fallen last night. Jayson Werth, who has been my favourite Nationals' position player for some time, and whose Game 4 heroics are possibly the high watermark of this 'generation' of Nationals, came through again. Note that his LevIn Win Value has now exceeded one win. That means one of those Nationals' twelve wins is entirely due to Werth's bat. (Of course, the data is incomplete, so that may fall as I add more past results.) I am getting rather tired of hearing the likes of Carpenter and Santangelo bemoaning his lack of hits Let's look at OBP, chaps.

2014 Game 2: Gio's Day

Highest Leverage PA:     2.1, PA#62 Duda K vs Clippard, Mets 8th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .148, PA #31, Desmond HR vs Colon, Nationals 5th.
QMAX rating:             (2,3) for Gonzalez (Success Square zone).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Desmond        0.108
Werth          0.088
Gonzalez       0.033
Rendon         0.025
LaRoche        0.021
McLouth       -0.005
Lobaton       -0.028
Span          -0.070
Zimmerman     -0.071
Harper        -0.094

There's a higher-leveraged incident than Lucas Duda's PA, which is an event that occurred in the Mets' fifth: Ruben Tejada was thrown out by Bryce Harper at home, trying to score off Juan Lagares' double. That was worth .120 of a win, which compensated for Harper's negative batting performance.

The Highest Leverage PA is low, reflecting the fact that the Nationals took charge of this game with Ian Desmond's home run in the fifth. (How much is he worth now?)

I did not watch the game, following on the radio as is most common for me, but the numbers suggest that Gio Gonzalez was the key to winning this game.

After Tyler Clippard walked Tejada (funny how the name of such an apparently disappointing player appears twice in this report), I was worried that he wasn't quite the Clippard I came to appreciate so deeply in seasons past, but he bounced back quite strongly. But none of the reliever's performances really warranted a Hero's Palm. I have decided retrospectively, however, to award one to Aaron Barrett for his Game #1 outing.

2012 Game 45

Highest Leverage PA:      2.2, PA#35 Minor GDP vs Strasburg, Braves 4th.
Highest WPA/LI Value:     .255, PA #44, Uggla HR vs Strasburg, Braves 5th.
Highest WPA/LI Fldg Play: .068, PA#35 Minor GDP vs Strasburg, Braves 4th.
QMAX rating:             (5,5) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:           Hero's Palm for Gorzelanny.

Batters' WPA/LI Values:

Espinosa       0.156
Harper         0.114
Tracy          0.061
Ankiel         0.036
LaRoche        0.028
Nady           0.007
Strasburg     -0.004
Desmond       -0.011
Gorzelanny    -0.033
Zimmerman     -0.043
Moore         -0.050
Flores        -0.074

And this one also belongs to the Nationals' hitting. This looks like Strasburg's worst start of the season so far, but the bullpen did a better job of holding back the Braves than they did on Friday night. Espinosa's and Harper's home runs were supported by crucial extra-base hits from Desmond, Ankiel and Nady. A solid team effort with the bats.

2012 Game 33

Highest Leverage PA:     3.9, PA #39, Harper 4-6 force vs Latos, Nats' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value:    .160, PA #33, Ramos HR vs Latos, Nationals' 5th.
                         .160, PA #45, Espinosa HR vs Arredondo, Nats' 6th.
Lowest Opp. Clutch Val:  -.120, PA #50, Phillips L6-3 DP vs Zimmermann, Reds' 6th
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,2) for Zimmermann.
Bullpen Award:               Hero's Palm for Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Espinosa       0.277
Ramos          0.158
LaRoche        0.052
Desmond        0.031
Zimmermann     0.006
Moore         -0.016
Bernadina     -0.047
Zimmerman     -0.108
Ankiel        -0.193
Harper        -0.196

Wilson Ramos' torn ACL marred one of those tense, splendid games that are a joy for fans but probably a bit stressful for the players. Ramos hasn't received a whole lot of notice in the Season of Bryce, but he was putting together a useful season as a key contributor with the bat in clutch situations. The Nationals may well miss him more than the few weeks of Jayson Werth or Michael Morse. Contending teams always feature a couple of chaps like Ramos having career years from the lower reaches of the lineup. At least he went out on a high note with that homer. As far as the game went, on the manager's show the next day Davey Johnson commented on Bryce Harper's current troubles with the bat by highlighting exactly that 4-6 force out singled out as the most leveraged plate appearance of the game. No consolation to Harper that if he was going to be got out in spectacular fashion, it had to be at such a highly-leveraged moment.

CORRECTION
A careless copying error led to Clippard getting a Hero's Palm that should have gone to Henry Rodriguez. The Bullpen Awards table has been modified.
— 17 May 2012

2012 Game 24

Highest Leverage PA:         5.2, PA #71, Desmond HR vs Putz, Nationals' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .640, PA #71, Desmond HR vs Putz, Nationals' 9th.
QMAX rating:                 None (5,3) for Jackson.
Bullpen Award:               Hero's Palm for Stammen.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Desmond        0.594
Harper         0.310
Werth          0.126
Lombardozzi    0.083
Ramos         -0.025
Jackson       -0.041
Moore         -0.068
Nady          -0.075
Espinosa      -0.133
Ankiel        -0.135
LaRoche       -0.197

Pity poor Ian Desmond, who has bust out of a slump. The last two days his Leveraged Win (or 'Clutch') Values with the bat have been in positive territory for the first time in a while. Yet all the headline attention has gone to Bryce Harper. Well, he's taking it for the team, I'm sure.

As you can see, the game was won by the bats for a change. The only thing I'd point out is that Stammen's fine two-inning stint produced a good chunk of value, too. So he gets a Hero's Palm.

2012 Game 22

Highest Leverage PA:         3.3, PA #46, Loney 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .172, PA #46, Londy 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th.
Highest Nats' Clutch Value:  .073, PA #21, Desmond 2B vs Capuano, Nationals' 4th.
QMAX rating:                 Power Precipice (2,5) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

LaRoche        0.032
Moore          0.026
Harper        -0.007
Desmond       -0.014
Lombardozzi   -0.024
Ankiel        -0.041
Gonzalez      -0.043
Tracy         -0.059
Espinosa      -0.068
Flores        -0.170
Nady          -0.190

So the Nationals finished a six-game western road trip going 2-4. We have got a better measure of the team after this, as we can see that the problem is that they do not have enough offense to carry a playoff-calibre pitching staff into the post-season. It could be a team-wide slump, but for this particular game I question Davey Johnson's lineup. migraine led to Jayson Werth being a late scratch, which is the sort of thing that can't be helped, but Danny Espinosa is not the player I would have put in his place at #3. I would have gone with either "Country" (as opposed to "Mary") Tyler Moore or Bryce Harper, and probably Moore. The fact is, though Gio Gonzalez fell off the Power Precipice in the sixth, he still pitched well enough for a win, if he had the hitters to back him up.

The Bryce Is Right

Here comes Bryce Harper.

With Ryan Zimmerman going on the disabled list, the already-lightweight Nationals' batting lineup faced the loss of a key player, at least in terms of potential. (Zimmerman's slash line was not exactly helping, at 224/324/345, and my concerns were mounting.) NadyRosa are being pushed beyond legitimate expectations of two players who look satisfactory down at 6 or 7 in the batting order, but not so hot going in at #3.

The Nationals are having a great start, and now face an opponent having almost an equally great start. If Harper was going to be promoted at some point this season, this is as good a time as any, no matter how well he is doing at AAA. If he can keep the momentum going, it will add to the Mystique and Aura of Harper. If not, he's got a taste, and maybe will work harder for the next opportunity.