Washington Nationals Fielding in Review 2014

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers, one that closes the book on the 2014 Nationals fielding as monitored on this blog. ('Last time' was a l-o-o-o-n-n-g time ago, the end of July.) My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        8.8     +1.8    0.2
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.8     -2.9   -2.6
Span (CF)          -4.7     -4.3    .924    -.010       .919        8.2     +3.6    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       2.3     +2.2    .784    -.004       .787        5.0     -0.7    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -5.0     -3.1    .793    -.007       .796      -13.2     -5.2    n/a
Harper (LF)         1.5     +2.8    .886    +.014       .881        1.1     +6.6    n/a
Desmond (SS)        0.1     +2.4    .822    +.019       .799      -10.3     +0.5    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.6     +2.9    .931    -.002       .906      -10.0     -1.4    n/a
Rendon (3B)         4.2     +3.8    .683    -.016       .709        4.2     +1.8    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .907    +.002       .881      - 3.0     -3.6    n/a
A. Cabrera (2B)    -2.2     ---     .758     ---        .787      - 1.5     ---     n/a 
minimum 220 innings

I have been tracking fielding in this manner for a few years now, and my only solid conclusion is that by and large outfielders tend to find their RZR level for the season quite quickly, while infielders can be more mercurial. A metric like UZR, by contrast, swings quite wildly over the course of the season at all positions. This is the fundamental problem with metrics that apply a relative standard, which is the approach adopted the most widely accepted fielding metrics. This is to say that most fielding metrics measure a player's performance against an average for the position throughout the league. I find this deeply unsatisfactory. I have been thinking about this problem, and have a solution that I'd like to test; but I make no promises about posting it here at any time.

Moving on to the actual metrics, the most important thing for Nationals fans to note, I think, is just how much Bryce Harper improved as a left-fielder over the course of the season. Nonetheless, he is not much more than an average fielder overall. The defensive star for the Nationals seems to be Anthony Rendon, if one believes UZR, but RZR paints a very different picture. What is strange is that UZR gives him a high range value. One can only throw up one's hands in despair at such a divergent picture. DRA likes Denard Span best, but UZR seems to think he was one of the worse fielders. RZR suggests he was about average. Again, we see a slight divergence between RZR and UZR on Span's ability to range the outfield. Well, at least we can all agree that Adam LaRoche was a bit of a defensive liability, surely. Nope — though UZR and DRA see him as the worst regular on the team, RZR thinks his range was a little bit below league average.

The only person on whom the different metrics reach a consensus is Asdrubal Cabrera, who was got for his bat. Just as well, too. He is seen as a subpar with the glove.

Let me conclude with a note about Jose Lobaton. He was picked up to provide some defensive help, and to be honest he did exactly that. DRA likes his fielding, and his pitch-framing, which last time I checked was -1.7, rose into positive territory. A good acquisition, Mr Rizzo!

2014 Nationals' Fielding Review #6

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        7.0     +0.6   -1.7
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        5.7     +1.3   -2.0
Span (CF)          -0.4     +1.5    .934    +.016       .923        2.6     +2.9    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.1     -1.1    .788    +.004       .788        5.7     +2.1    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -1.9     +2.4    .800    +.004       .807      - 8.0      ---    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.3     +0.1    .872    +.023       .871      - 5.5     -2.1    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -2.3     +0.3    .803    +.005       .793      -10.8     -0.4    n/a
Werth (RF)         -4.5     -2.9    .933    +.004       .895      - 8.6     -3.5    n/a
Rendon (3B)         0.4     +0.7    .699    -.006       .708        2.4     +1.4    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .905    +.003       .871        0.6     -1.6    n/a
Rendon (2B)         2.0     ---     .857     ---        .788      - 8.0     ---     n/a 
minimum 180 innings

By UZR Denard Span continues to improve, by exactly the same amount as last time. Danny Espinosa gave back all of his UZR improvement from the last review. Span and Anthony Rendon at third are the two players seen as improving both by the traditional statistics of DRA and by the play-by-play analysis of UZR. The only player losing ground under both systems was Jayson Werth. Rendon is now in the list as a secondbaseman as well as a thirdbaseman. Ryan Zimmerman at third just missed the cut.

Overall, both systems see the Nationals as seemingly having to found their level for the season. UZR adds up to a 0.7 increase, which is probably indicative of random variaton. DRA, including catchers, sees an identical improvement. UZR adds up the Nationals' regular fielders to -7.8, or costing the team about three-quarters of a win. DRA sees matters almost twice as bad, with -16.9 runs, or almost two wins. However, one probably ought to double the UZR total to get a better idea of the team's fielding over an entire season.

Wilson Ramos' pitch framing went down las time by 2.5 runs and this time by 1.4 runs. Jose Lobaton also slipped a bit, losing 0.4 runs, giving back some of his improvement last time. So, overall, the Nationals' catchers haven't been able to get the calls during this past two weeks or so.
____
* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

2014 Nationals Hitters' Batted Balls in Review #1

I have been spending more time on the World Cup than on baseball this past month, but during that I decided to start another regular review of batters' hitting, similar to my fielding reviews. Where the fielding reviews try to compare different systems to gain some sort of sense of just how much fielding is contributing to wins and losses, this review is going to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.

Ian  Desmond             42      33    + 9
Adam  LaRoche            49      43    + 6
Danny  Espinosa          22      20    + 2
Zach  Walters             4       3    + 1 
Anthony  Rendon          56      56      0
Ryan  Zimmerman          24      24      0
Bryce  Harper            12      12      0
Wilson  Ramos            19      20    - 1
Tyler  Moore              8       9    - 1
Scott  Hairston           4       5    - 1
Steven  Souza             0       1    - 1
Jayson  Werth            53      55    - 2
Greg  Dobbs               1       3    - 2
Jose  Lobaton            11      14    - 3
Nate  McLouth            11      15    - 4
Sandy  Leon               2       6    - 4 
Kevin  Frandsen          12      20    - 8
Denard  Span             40      58    -18

Poor Denard Span. He has been poorly rewarded for his efforts at the plate. I don't think any other hitter is wildly out of line with his results, but I do note that Danny Espinosa, whose .214/.282/.343 slash line isn't all that impressive to begin with, has been hitting a little bit above expectations.

2012 Game 45

Highest Leverage PA:      2.2, PA#35 Minor GDP vs Strasburg, Braves 4th.
Highest WPA/LI Value:     .255, PA #44, Uggla HR vs Strasburg, Braves 5th.
Highest WPA/LI Fldg Play: .068, PA#35 Minor GDP vs Strasburg, Braves 4th.
QMAX rating:             (5,5) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:           Hero's Palm for Gorzelanny.

Batters' WPA/LI Values:

Espinosa       0.156
Harper         0.114
Tracy          0.061
Ankiel         0.036
LaRoche        0.028
Nady           0.007
Strasburg     -0.004
Desmond       -0.011
Gorzelanny    -0.033
Zimmerman     -0.043
Moore         -0.050
Flores        -0.074

And this one also belongs to the Nationals' hitting. This looks like Strasburg's worst start of the season so far, but the bullpen did a better job of holding back the Braves than they did on Friday night. Espinosa's and Harper's home runs were supported by crucial extra-base hits from Desmond, Ankiel and Nady. A solid team effort with the bats.

Leveraged Win Values for Batters

The sidebar on the left now includes the aggregate Leveraged Win Values of each batter, including all games between 21st April and 8th May. I shall be adding subsequent games and updating the list regularly. It ought to be pointed out that Adam LaRoche's position at the top of the list was not affected by his home run in the 9th inning in the game of 8th May. He only about doubled his total for the season during the period!

The numbers basically capture what percentage of a win each batter has contributed given what he did in a plate appearance in the particular context of the game at that exact moment. I've taken to calling it 'clutch' in the short summaries heading my individual game comments. Thus, LaRoche's accumulated plate appearances during the period covered were worth an entire win, and then some, in themselves.

The most glaring matter requiring comment is Danny Espinosa's situation. Espinosa is clearly well adrift of the impact of most regulars. I confess to not understanding Davey Johnson's persistence in putting him any higher than seventh in the lineup. If it's a case of not having too many left-handed hitters in succession, placing Wilson Ramos behind Chad Tracy (where Espinosa batted on Tuesday night) seems to make far more sense, based on these numbers.

I'd also just like to note that Tracy has been a pleasant surprise so far.

2012 Game 22

Highest Leverage PA:         3.3, PA #46, Loney 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .172, PA #46, Londy 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th.
Highest Nats' Clutch Value:  .073, PA #21, Desmond 2B vs Capuano, Nationals' 4th.
QMAX rating:                 Power Precipice (2,5) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

LaRoche        0.032
Moore          0.026
Harper        -0.007
Desmond       -0.014
Lombardozzi   -0.024
Ankiel        -0.041
Gonzalez      -0.043
Tracy         -0.059
Espinosa      -0.068
Flores        -0.170
Nady          -0.190

So the Nationals finished a six-game western road trip going 2-4. We have got a better measure of the team after this, as we can see that the problem is that they do not have enough offense to carry a playoff-calibre pitching staff into the post-season. It could be a team-wide slump, but for this particular game I question Davey Johnson's lineup. migraine led to Jayson Werth being a late scratch, which is the sort of thing that can't be helped, but Danny Espinosa is not the player I would have put in his place at #3. I would have gone with either "Country" (as opposed to "Mary") Tyler Moore or Bryce Harper, and probably Moore. The fact is, though Gio Gonzalez fell off the Power Precipice in the sixth, he still pitched well enough for a win, if he had the hitters to back him up.

2012 Game 19 Notes

Highest Leverage PA:         5.9, PA #57, Hundley's K vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
                             (Also, Lowest Leveraged Win Value at -.159)
Highest Leveraged Win Value: .337, PA #64, Kotsay's 2B vs Clippard, Padres' 8th.
Nationals' Highest Lev Win:  .148, PA #49, Werth's HR vs Volquez, Nationals' 7th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (3,4) for Jackson.
Bullpen Award:               Goat's Horns for Clippard.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

LaRoche        0.048
Werth          0.030
Ramos          0.027
Bernadina     -0.018
Jackson       -0.055
Ankiel        -0.064
Nady          -0.064
Desmond       -0.104
Tracy         -0.109
Espinosa      -0.147

It is easy to point the finger at poor Tyler Clippard, who saved the day in the 7th inning, for blowing the game in the 8th. But, seriously, as the Batting Leveraged Win Values show, my Finger of Blame for yesterday's loss points squarely at the Nationals' hitters. The top of the order in particular—Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa and Chad Tracy—had a very poor game, as the numbers show. The bullpen's job is to hold a lead, even one as slim as one run, but a couple of years of messing about with Win Probability has taught me that to expect the bullpen to hold such slim leads game after game is a recipe for a .500 season.