Tuesday, 1 May 2012

2012 Game 21

Highest Leverage event: 7.4, PA #74, Uribe scores on wild pitch, Dodgers' 9th.
Highest Leverage PA:    5.7, PA #74, Kennedy FC vs Rodriguez, Dodgers' 9th.
Highest Leveraged Win Value: .363, PA #72, Uribe vs Rodriguez, Dodgers' 9th.
Highest Nats' Lev Win Value: .178, PA #44, LaRoche HR vs Billingsley, Nats' 7th.
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,1) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:               Goat's Horns for Henry Rodriguez.
Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche        0.239
Ramos          0.096
Espinosa       0.069
Strasburg      0.019
Harper         0.013
Tracy          0.003
Ankiel        -0.023
Werth         -0.124
Lombardozzi   -0.181
Desmond       -0.204
An unmitigated disaster. Taking into account the leverage index and the win value of the event, Uribe's scoring on a wild pitch was worth more to the Dodgers than Kemp's game-winning home run. The reason for this is that this event made it more likely that the Dodgers would win the game in the end. That's the way leverage works — it helps identify the turning point of the game. Home teams have the advantage, especially in extra innings. Once the game was tied, the odds favoured the Dodgers.

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