2012 Game 34

Highest Leverage PA:     10.9, PA #87, Votto HR vs Rodriguez, Reds' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:    1.341, PA #87, Votto HR vs Rodriguez, Reds' 9th.
Lowest Opp. Clutch Val:  -.130, PA #84, Cairo FL5 vs Rodriguez, Reds' 9th.
QMAX rating:             Success Square (4,3) for Jackson.
Bullpen Award:           Goat's Head for Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Ankiel         0.171
Espinosa       0.143
Tracy          0.099
Bernadina      0.079
Flores        -0.004
Harper        -0.018
Nady          -0.026
LaRoche       -0.028
Desmond       -0.042
Moore         -0.038
Zimmerman     -0.062
Jackson       -0.073

Who would want to be a closer? To paraphrase what Ryan Zimmerman says in the advertisements I hear on the radio broadcasts, if you can't handle the stress, maybe you're in the wrong profession. Henry Rodriguez coughed up a home-run ball to Joey Votto, and that was that. The Nationals dropped out of first place.

2012 Game 29

I lost this morning to migraine, so the batter numbers are still delayed.

Highest Leverage PA:         6.1, PA #69, Barajas HR vs Rodriguez, Pirates' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .750, PA #69, Barajas HR vs Rodriguez, Pirates' 9th.
Lowest Opp Clutch Value:    -.157, PA #68, Navarro K vs Rodriguez, Pirates' 9th.
QMAX rating:                 Success square (3,2) for Jackson.
Bullpen Award:               Goat's Horns for Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

LaRoche        0.624
Zimmerman      0.083
Jackson        0.078
Ramos          0.074
Ankiel         0.027
Harper        -0.016
Lombardozzi   -0.051
Bernadina     -0.095
Espinosa      -0.120
Desmond       -0.250

Now here was a game that took me back to the 2009 season, when the bullpen seemed to be a Fountain of Misery, and the Bullpen Goat of the Day award was a bit of fun to relieve the anguish. This was when I started to keep track of win probability, as in comparing the chance of winning when the reliever came in, and subtracting that from the chance of winning when the reliever left the game. Last night, Henry Rodriguez managed to convert his total for the season from positive to negative territory, which was quite something since when he entered the game in the 9th his win probability contribution was .362 in games between 11 April and 4th May.

But it wasn't just Rodriguez. Tyler Clippard did fans no favours either, even after deducting the effects of Ian Desmond's misplay. Clippard's win probablity effect wasn't anywhere close to Rodriguez' disastrous number, but it was still in negative territory.

Despite all the disappointment, though, it was a very good game to follow. So thanks to the players for battling hard, even if they came up short.

2012 Game 25

Highest Leverage PA:         2.9, PA #59, Upton F8 vs Rodriguez, D'backs' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .139, PA #43, Harper 2B vs Kennedy, Nationals' 6th.
Lowest Clutch Value:        -.114, PA #31, Pollock GDP vs Detilwer, D'backs' 5th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (2,4) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:               Hero's Palm for Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Harper         0.105
Desmond        0.061
Ankiel         0.027
Werth          0.013
Tracy         -0.013
Bernadina     -0.016
Detwiler      -0.053
Espinosa      -0.094
Ramos         -0.094
Lombardozzi   -0.096

This game was a pitching victory. Not only did Ross Detwiler put in another above-average start for a FIFTH STARTER (who normally are the dregs of the starting rotation), but three successive pitchers came out of the bullpen in highish-leverage situations and navigated to successful conclusions. Ryan Mattheus broke new ground by being brought in with the Leverage Index registering 2.3. this is his highest reading of the season so far, and suggests that Davey Johnson has developed a lot of confidence in him. Henry Rodriguez faced the highest leverage of any reliever, and acquitted himself nicely.

Will Rodriguez get an outing if a save situation arises tonight? He has pitched two days in a row.