Tuesday, 8 May 2012

2012 Game 27 NATITUDE Series

Highest Leverage PA:         2.6, PA #41, Harper F7 vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
                             2.6, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .320, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Lowest Opp Clutch Value:    -.047, PA #7, Galvis F6 vs Gonzalez, Phillies 2nd.
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,2) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:               None.
Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Werth          0.245
Lombardozzi    0.189
Ankiel         0.161
Tracy          0.058
Gonzalez       0.056
Desmond       -0.031
Espinosa      -0.054
Ramos         -0.099
Harper        -0.129
Here's a game where the usefulness of the Leverage Index in assigning value is readily apparent. Jayson Werth's 5th inning home run boosted the Nationals' chances of winning by 64 per cent. Ian Desmond's and Chad Tracy's homers only by 5 per cent each. The difference is context. Werth's fence-clearer came with the Nationals down by a run in the 5th. The Nationals were up by three in the bottom of the 6th when Desmond's blast occurred. Tracy's came with the Nationals up by four in the 7th. Basically, leverage tells us that a home team with a three-run lead after six innings, is very likely to win the game already. There just aren't enough PAs left for the visitors to get the two or three rallies they need to make up the difference.

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