tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.comments2022-11-12T14:43:27.362+00:00De civitate sabermetricarumPaul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-74995389290414452572014-02-21T15:50:30.698+00:002014-02-21T15:50:30.698+00:00I think Desmond is worth even more than that. His...I think Desmond is worth even more than that. His contract and positional comparable is simple: Elvis Andrus. 8yrs/$120M. I believe Desmond is nearly Andrus' equal defensively but clearly a superior hitter, both for average and power. <br /><br />I wrote about this in April 2013 (http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=6370) before Desmond put up another 20/20 season with plus defense. And before the normal year over year escalation of salary values.<br /><br />I could see him demanding a Jayson Werth contract now. 7/$126 for $17 AAV.Todd Bosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02588001750834983356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-5997340388719014172012-05-27T21:17:53.854+01:002012-05-27T21:17:53.854+01:00It certainly is difficult. The question I am hidin...It certainly is difficult. The question I am hiding is whether this lack of OBP is a matter of luck or whether some of the signings in the past (particularly Ankiel) have shown that SLG is valued more than OBP by Mike Rizzo. All this is grist for the mill of a blog post.Paul Brewerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-73685341562601588832012-05-25T17:06:21.757+01:002012-05-25T17:06:21.757+01:00When you have 4 bats in the lineup at or below a ....When you have 4 bats in the lineup at or below a .300 OBP -- 5, if you count the pitcher -- is it really possible to have a sequential offense?Chris Needhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10455692848328638937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-52825641954168912572010-08-03T07:24:07.762+01:002010-08-03T07:24:07.762+01:00Hi Paul, I left a comment at the Sabermetric Crick...Hi Paul, I left a comment at the Sabermetric Cricket blog site too - I'm interested in the raw data for win expectancy in cricket. Could you email me at davewilson_us@yahoo.com?<br />Thanks!ChasingTheDonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07042078484254993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-13589656826175655022010-05-28T16:12:41.254+01:002010-05-28T16:12:41.254+01:00I've always heard that fielding stats are not ...I've always heard that fielding stats are not very useful on the single year level and that one season of batting stats equates to roughly 3 seasons of fielding stats. If that's the case wouldn't this be similar to looking at hitting stats sometime before the end of April? Not to say Morgan isn't in decline (he sure appears to be everywhere else) but don't we need a little more time before praise and shame can be doled out.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-32445081588740202902010-05-10T22:45:04.645+01:002010-05-10T22:45:04.645+01:00Please forgive the off-topic comment, but I don...Please forgive the off-topic comment, but I don't see any contact information anywhere on the site, so this seems to be the only way I can contact you.<br /><br />I'm a community host for TBD, a yet-to-be-launched website that'll cover local news and sports in DC, and I've been reaching out to Nationals bloggers over the past week. We're creating a network of bloggers that we think will be mutually beneficial -- we'll direct traffic to you via links on our site (but won't steal your content), and we'll also help sell ads for your blog so the majority of the money goes to you. That's the short, confusing version, but I can explain more.<br /><br />Please e-mail me at dvictor@tbd.com so I can give you a better explanation. As a bit of a stathead myself, I'm going to make it somewhat of a personal quest to get you involved. I'd love to be able to feature links to your posts right alongside the standard game recaps, hopefully exposing this side of the game to a wider audience. <br /><br />Thanks for hearing me out, and I hope to hear from you soon.Daniel Victorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12061840348694221456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-70016790228815955162010-04-18T19:29:17.858+01:002010-04-18T19:29:17.858+01:00This was already one of my favorite blogs, but now...This was already one of my favorite blogs, but now that you've pulled out a QMAX reference/analysis .... good stuff! I knew I had boxed up my old copies of (the late and lamented) BBBA for a reason!Basilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10346481140960787459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-69264445099250656832010-04-12T13:05:26.876+01:002010-04-12T13:05:26.876+01:00If Mock has the stuff to challenge hitters in the ...If Mock has the stuff to challenge hitters in the zone, someone needs to tell him that. 30 pitch innings (even if they end up scoreless) aren't going to get him into a major league rotation.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03967066946860270813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-78675614451023665552010-03-04T19:58:14.513+00:002010-03-04T19:58:14.513+00:00instructive. thanks.instructive. thanks.Dave Nicholshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05310191107811609232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-28962520107714888842010-03-03T22:20:15.490+00:002010-03-03T22:20:15.490+00:00July 25 was a rain delay game. That's why J.D....July 25 was a rain delay game. That's why J.D. came out.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-63310324154075677692010-03-03T22:17:19.826+00:002010-03-03T22:17:19.826+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-59374276622387200982010-03-03T19:02:16.482+00:002010-03-03T19:02:16.482+00:00Acta appears to have quite a strict 'pitch cou...<b>Acta appears to have quite a strict 'pitch count' mentality, setting a target for a pitcher and pulling him quite quickly once the target is reached, thus being a relatively 'slow hook'.</b><br /><br />Oh yes. Acta is the kind of the 80-99 pitch start (just a convenient way of stating it, since that's how BBRef breaks out pitch counts).<br /><br />Acta is sort of the living embodiment of Bill James's observation that managers today don't go deep with starters, but also don't quickly yank starters who clearly "don't have it today."Basilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10346481140960787459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-55898914774576052562010-03-03T17:04:09.648+00:002010-03-03T17:04:09.648+00:00FIP and ERA tell us different things. The ability ...FIP and ERA tell us different things. The ability of a pitcher to control what happens after a ball is hit is limited, and FIP gives us an idea of what the pitcher has control over. (It includes home runs, which maybe we should exclude nowadays, it seems.)<br /><br />I wouldn't say I value FIP more than ERA, but rather that I like to see the two together. The data used to make a pitcher's projections is going to include the effects of fielders who may very well not be on the same team any more. FIP strips some of that effect out.Paul Brewerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-13412720128459253382010-03-01T12:47:48.751+00:002010-03-01T12:47:48.751+00:00Do you value FIP more than ERA? I am guessing you ...Do you value FIP more than ERA? I am guessing you definitely do. Is there a better measure out there for comparing starting pitchers?Positively Half St.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07048223068323120438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-49981649390342654882010-02-25T00:50:44.566+00:002010-02-25T00:50:44.566+00:00Smitty, I used FIP because
a) it is easy to ca...Smitty, I used FIP because <br /> a) it is easy to calculate; and<br /> b) it is pretty good at predicting ERA.<br /><br />You're absolutely right about the absence of the fielding component, and a better alternative would be to do as I did with Wang, and make some projection of the batted-ball results. However, that would have taken me a lot longer. <br /><br />By showing both the ERA and the FIP projections, I hope that readers can look at someone like Lannan and get an idea of what can be expected. He's an above-average pitcher, but he's probably not quite the ideal #1 guy for a rotation.<br /><br />DIERA is designed for historical purposes, and really is a work in progress at the moment.Paul Brewerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-80206561383893757762010-02-23T18:20:43.820+00:002010-02-23T18:20:43.820+00:00If the Nats got a full season of FIP equal ERA fro...If the Nats got a full season of FIP equal ERA from the guys you pencilled in the ERA would be somewhere in, what? the 4.50 range? Sad thing is that would still be a half-run improvement from the starters last year. <br /><br />Lannan is a magic man, Smitty. Don't try to comprehend him.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-65812149264855691892010-02-23T16:45:29.203+00:002010-02-23T16:45:29.203+00:00I've looked at FIP a little. In theory it see...I've looked at FIP a little. In theory it seems valid but under some scrutiny, it seems to have holes. Maybe I'm clueless and just don't "get it", but is it strikeout centric? By eliminating the fielding component you denigrate groundball/pitch to contact guys like Lannan or Randy Jones (2 examples that pop into my head). Guys who strike out a paltry amount of batters (Lannan 4.6/9ip; Jones 3.3) and hence, Lannan's FIP has been much higher than his ERA. <br /><br />I see the logic in that a pitcher has "control" over the strikeout and trying to measure a pitcher's ability independent of others. But doesn't he also have "control" over making the batter swing at marginal pitches and getting ground balls or popups? It seems FIP ignores that aspect. Is there anything that does? <br /><br />Warning - I tried doing the DIERA thing but lacked the wherewithal to do the league stats. Found your site via Chris at CapPun.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-70292504893704420542010-02-21T17:34:25.992+00:002010-02-21T17:34:25.992+00:00I hope this turns out to be incorrect, obviously. ...I hope this turns out to be incorrect, obviously. However, I'll consider this interesting analysis as a reminder to keep my expectations down when he does return. As bad as your analysis of Wang feels, though, Balester's is brutal. I hadn't gotten my hopes up for him yet, except as a commentator.Positively Half St.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07048223068323120438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-35268741444615216932010-02-21T16:13:42.813+00:002010-02-21T16:13:42.813+00:00Thanks, Brent.
I'm confident that the Nationa...Thanks, Brent.<br /><br />I'm confident that the Nationals' RC/27s are correct. It's more likely my 2009 averages are wrong. CHONE might use multiple seasons to calculate its positional averages, which would make a small difference, but not on the order of what you suggest.<br /><br />I'll have a look at some point and report back.Paul Brewerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-29649468491713767862010-02-20T18:49:59.319+00:002010-02-20T18:49:59.319+00:00Paul,
I think you may have a mistake in your form...Paul,<br /><br />I think you may have a mistake in your formula. Looking at the column in the Chone spreadsheet labeled "R150," which I believe stands for runs above/below average per 150 games, I see the following totals:<br /><br />Pudge -26<br />Dunn 19<br />Kennedy -12<br />Zimmerman 24<br />Guzman -13<br />Willingham 11<br />Morgan -9<br />Dukes 11<br /><br />Total 5<br /><br />That is, the Nationals lineup projects to be just about average, with four players above average and four below.Brenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13314391510203279286noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-74051459085955343852009-11-14T13:19:30.115+00:002009-11-14T13:19:30.115+00:00I vote we bring back harris to play 2nd, trade guz...I vote we bring back harris to play 2nd, trade guzman for a shot of expresso, and give either Desmond or Espinoza the job at SS.niggledorkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01810460832832907141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-22441460892759816272009-10-23T05:03:44.785+01:002009-10-23T05:03:44.785+01:00I'd keep Zimmerman at #3. First, assuming the...I'd keep Zimmerman at #3. First, assuming the Nats don't trade Dunn, I think they'd definitely want to leave Dunn in the cleanup spot. So for Zim that leaves the question as #2 vs. #3. I know that <i>The Book</i> says that the #2 slot is more valuable than #3, but that perception isn't widely held by players or the public. And the difference is pretty trivial--I think that Tango et al said it was about 1-1/2 runs per season. Why make your young, star player feel like he's getting a demotion for such a trivial payoff? Plus, who else is better suited for the #3 slot? Outside of Dunn and Zim, the Nats aren't exactly loaded with HR hitters.<br /><br />The bigger issue (and the only real, fundamental problem I see with how the Nats lineup has been structured) will be getting Guzman out of the #2 (or #1) slots. A lot of outs were wasted by giving a player with a .306 OBP more than 500 plate appearances in the top two positions. With the current roster, I'd think about moving Dukes into the #2 slot. With a career .249 batting average, he isn't the prototypical #2 hitter, but he's always been good at drawing walks and his career .349 OBP is above average. Actually, maybe it might make more sense to move Dukes to #1 and Morgan, who hits for a higher average but doesn't draw as many walks, to #2.Brenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13314391510203279286noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-8280211936955825282009-10-18T12:43:48.606+01:002009-10-18T12:43:48.606+01:00I can't say I understand half of what you wrot...I can't say I understand half of what you wrote, but great stuff anyways...<br /><br />I'm kinda surprised that Willie Harris batting 1st though was league average despite the low average.niggledorkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01810460832832907141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-10237063376824533172009-08-11T21:15:13.638+01:002009-08-11T21:15:13.638+01:00hi. i didn't find an email address on your pa...hi. i didn't find an email address on your page, so i wanted to contact you here. please email me (natsnewsnetwork@gmail.com) if you'd like ot participate with a coalition of Nats bloggers voting for post-season awards and other Nats-related stuff.<br /><br />thanks, keep up the good work!<br /><br />p.s. i've already put you in my blogroll, would love if you could add me (http://natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com/)Dave Nicholshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05310191107811609232noreply@blogger.com