Washington Nationals 2014 Batted Ball Analysis

My batting reviews use types of batted balls to essay an assessment of how much a hitter's statistics might depart from their 'true talent level'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, getting that dying quail, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike-outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.

Ian  Desmond       79    61   +18
Bryce  Harper      51    41   +10
Jayson  Werth     100    94   + 6
Danny  Espinosa    31    26   + 5
Adam  LaRoche      84    80   + 4
Zach  Walters       5     4   + 1
Michael  Taylor     4     3   + 1
Tyler  Moore       11    11     0
Nate  Schierholtz   4     4     0
Ryan  Zimmerman    32    33   - 1
Steven  Souza       2     3   - 1
Anthony  Rendon   100   102   - 2
Greg  Dobbs         1     3   - 2
Jeff  Kobernus      0     2   - 2
Scott  Hairston     5     8   - 3
Sandy  Leon         2     6   - 4
Wilson  Ramos      38    43   - 5
Jose  Lobaton      17    24   - 7
Nate  McLouth       9    17   - 8
Asdrubal  Cabrera  21    30   -11
Kevin  Frandsen    19    32   -13
Denard  Span       88   102   -14

I only did this analysis once for the Nationals in 2014 and, just like last time, Ian Desmond has been the luckiest batter, while poor Denard Span has been poorly rewarded for his efforts at the plate. Although I haven't don't a study of this, I use a rule of thumb that +/-5 is within reasonable expectations. So the main candidates to expect a decline from next year are Bryce Harper and possibly Jayson Werth (and Desmond), while we should expect more from Jose Lobaton, Nate McLouth, Asdrubal Cabrera and Kevin Frandsen (and Span). So it's just as well the Nationals picked up Span's 2015 option.

Washington Nationals Fielding in Review 2014

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers, one that closes the book on the 2014 Nationals fielding as monitored on this blog. ('Last time' was a l-o-o-o-n-n-g time ago, the end of July.) My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        8.8     +1.8    0.2
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.8     -2.9   -2.6
Span (CF)          -4.7     -4.3    .924    -.010       .919        8.2     +3.6    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       2.3     +2.2    .784    -.004       .787        5.0     -0.7    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -5.0     -3.1    .793    -.007       .796      -13.2     -5.2    n/a
Harper (LF)         1.5     +2.8    .886    +.014       .881        1.1     +6.6    n/a
Desmond (SS)        0.1     +2.4    .822    +.019       .799      -10.3     +0.5    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.6     +2.9    .931    -.002       .906      -10.0     -1.4    n/a
Rendon (3B)         4.2     +3.8    .683    -.016       .709        4.2     +1.8    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .907    +.002       .881      - 3.0     -3.6    n/a
A. Cabrera (2B)    -2.2     ---     .758     ---        .787      - 1.5     ---     n/a 
minimum 220 innings

I have been tracking fielding in this manner for a few years now, and my only solid conclusion is that by and large outfielders tend to find their RZR level for the season quite quickly, while infielders can be more mercurial. A metric like UZR, by contrast, swings quite wildly over the course of the season at all positions. This is the fundamental problem with metrics that apply a relative standard, which is the approach adopted the most widely accepted fielding metrics. This is to say that most fielding metrics measure a player's performance against an average for the position throughout the league. I find this deeply unsatisfactory. I have been thinking about this problem, and have a solution that I'd like to test; but I make no promises about posting it here at any time.

Moving on to the actual metrics, the most important thing for Nationals fans to note, I think, is just how much Bryce Harper improved as a left-fielder over the course of the season. Nonetheless, he is not much more than an average fielder overall. The defensive star for the Nationals seems to be Anthony Rendon, if one believes UZR, but RZR paints a very different picture. What is strange is that UZR gives him a high range value. One can only throw up one's hands in despair at such a divergent picture. DRA likes Denard Span best, but UZR seems to think he was one of the worse fielders. RZR suggests he was about average. Again, we see a slight divergence between RZR and UZR on Span's ability to range the outfield. Well, at least we can all agree that Adam LaRoche was a bit of a defensive liability, surely. Nope — though UZR and DRA see him as the worst regular on the team, RZR thinks his range was a little bit below league average.

The only person on whom the different metrics reach a consensus is Asdrubal Cabrera, who was got for his bat. Just as well, too. He is seen as a subpar with the glove.

Let me conclude with a note about Jose Lobaton. He was picked up to provide some defensive help, and to be honest he did exactly that. DRA likes his fielding, and his pitch-framing, which last time I checked was -1.7, rose into positive territory. A good acquisition, Mr Rizzo!

Nationals: Do or Die, My Good-bye

I was an Expos fan. In 2004, I listened to many of the games during that last season by means of MLB's GameDay audio. Compared to the previous two seasons of the MLB Expos, that demanded a degree of fortitude and loyalty. I still bear a deep grudge towards Brian O'Nora, who during an interleague game called a foul ball fair for a home run. When the Expos were moved to Washington, I was upset and my initial response was to look for an alternative team to follow, settling on the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, as luck would have it, the Diamondbacks were playing in Washington at the start of the 2005 season, and I decided to listen to Charlie Slowes and Dave Shea. I was charmed by Slowes in particular, and gradually my familiarity with the 2005 Nationals' roster holdovers from the Expos, and their division-leading antics, had me sticking by the team.

For younger Nationals' fans, who found that where baseball teams are concerned it is better to receive than to give, the kind of humility required to hang on to fandom of a team that is moved is possibly hard to envisage. Longer-term Washington baseball fans might know the feeling well, especially after the original Nationals/Senators became the Twins and went on to a very successful 1960s while the Replacements really gave meaning to the old saying, 'First in war, &c'. In this case, I was rooting for a bunch of people who had made life very miserable with their taunts on message boards during 2002-4. Not many Expos' rooters followed me to Washington. In fact, many would despise me for sticking with the franchise.

The next four years saw me dividing my fandom between the Nationals and the team that I actually grew up with, the Detroit Tigers. The improbable 2006 World Series run by the Tigers did a lot to draw my interest, but my preference for National League baseball (no DH! — the reason I became a fan of a National League team in the first place) also pulled me back towards the ex-Expos. I was tugged in two directions.

In 2009, I made a conscious decision at the start of spring training to refocus on the Nationals, and I started writing this blog to help with that. The title of this blog is, in fact, a Latin pun on 'D.C.'. I paradoxically enjoyed following that losing 2009 team, despite its problems. But there were also annoyances, such as the horrible Rob Dibble & Bob Carpenter television duo, and the fact that Nationals Park clearly referenced not the Nationals' franchise history, but the history of Washington baseball. Now that's great for Washington baseball fans, but it creates problems outside of the District. And, in fact, there has been a constant tension between the Expos' heritage and the marketing problem of building a new fan-base. I've never really been comfortable with the Nationals borrowing the Twins' past, given that there was an Expos' past that the Nationals had every right to. But I also understood that the Expos' past could not speak with much authority to Washington's baseball fans.

2012, right down to Mr Slowes' outstanding home-run call on Jayson Werth's walk-off in Game #4 of the NLDS against the Cardinals, was for me a culmination. Despite being in Canada, not Washington, despite being nurtured into my baseball fandom in Tiger Stadium, not DC Stadium, my elation was just as great as that of anyone's along the Potomac. And the sadness that followed after the Game #5 loss was equally as great. I had followed the construction of that team from 2009 with interest. Those events hurt a bit more than the Tigers' loss to the Giants in the World Series. But when the 2013 season rolled around, something had changed between me and the Nationals. I still don't know what, but I felt a distance that wasn't there before. Was it the free agency of John Lannan? The acquisition of Denard Span? The trade of Michael Morse? Was it the fact that the bitter loss of the 2012 NLDS had cemented their identity as a Washington team, as opposed to a continuing example of the Expos' futile pursuit of post-season glory? Not even Slowes & Jageler could shift a sensation that something was rotten in the state of my Nationals'fandom. The 2014 season simply reinforced these feelings of distance. Instead I invested considerable emotion in the ups and downs of the Tigers, who literally uglied their way into an AL Central pennant.

Then, last Saturday night, there was the 1924 Flag That Will Fly Forever, marking the Washington team's World Series victory that season. Except that flag belongs to the Twins, who took it with them along with the makings of a competitive team when they left in 1960. Now I gather that something like it may have been flying over Nationals Park since it opened in 2008, but on Saturday the prominence given it in the television coverage rankled with me. First Washington baseball fans took someone else's team, and now they are taking another club's history. That's one way to look at it. One could just as easily argue that the Twins left it there when they moved to another city. But neutral arbiters have assigned it to the Twins. It's one of those areas where one's predisposition will determine what side of the argument one will find oneself on.

As the Tigers crashed out of the ALDS in miserable fashion, I came to a conclusion: the Expo in me has to let go of the Nationals. Unless I wind up living in the Chesapeake Bay area in the future, I will focus my baseball team fandom on the Tigers. Tonight will be the last game I watch as a fan of the Nationals. I will still make the post-season blog posts I intend to make about the 2014 Nationals, but they will be the last gestures towards a team that I have followed, in some fashion or another, since 2005. Whether the Nationals do or die, I say ave atque vale to a part of my life that sought to maintain ties to a dead franchise and a memory of past times.

EarlyThoughts on Deadline Deals

The trade deadline day proved suitably dramatic. Here is a roundup of my thoughts on the deals involving the teams I keep an eye on.

David Price for Drew Smyly, Austin Jackson and Will Adames I don't think one can analyse this deal properly without taking into account the deal in the offseason that sent Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals, the decline of Justin Verlander and contract negotiations with Max Scherzer. Smyly didn't quite step into Fister's shoes, while the other two elements have put the Tigers in a position of not having more than one plausible candidate for #1 Ace status for 2015, after several years of having two. Trading for Price is a signal to Scherzer that the Tigers are re-tooling for a Scherzer-less future, and puts pressure on Scherzer to think carefully about whether his chances for post-season play may be as good for more dollars elsewhere. But, my goodness, it will take deep pockets to sign both Price and Scherzer.

Having said that, my own impression is that Price may be, as I suggested about Joakim Soria, a player whom the Tigers are getting possibly as he has passed his best. He did not start the season well, although he has come on strong subsequently. Furthermore, I don't like the effect that trading Jackson will have on the Tigers' outfield defence. Verlander, who already has problems, and the newly acquired Price may in particular suffer (although possibly not as much as Scherzer, which further adds to my view that some of this trade is about Scherzer). While Adames was showing promise, the presence of Jose Iglesias and Eugenio Salazar in the organisation meant the Tigers had the depth to deal away a good prospect. Overall, though, I think this trade did not particularly strengthen the team for 2014, but has made it worse in the medium term, if only a little bit. (But a lot if the Tigers cannot sign either of Price or Scherzer.)

Asdrubal Cabrera for Zach Walters This deal is about... well, it is really about hitting. The Nationals have had great difficulty driving in runs for most of the season, and Cabrera ought to make that aspect of their game better. But the deal is really about injuries. I don't think there would be a problem with Anthony Rendon at second base and Ryan Zimmerman at third base and Danny Espinosa on the bench, but the Z-Man can't stay in the field, and the Nationals are really not as good a team without him. I'm not at all convinced that a mid-season shift is going to be as painless for the Nationals' infield defence as some people think. I see the potential for major improvement for 2014 here, at no major cost to the medium-term outlook.

The Marlins' Six-Player Swap with the Astros This is the most appealing trade of the day for me. Jarred Cosart gives the Marlins some depth to the rotation, an area they have been lacking in this season. Enrique Hernandez and Andrew Wates are interesting prospects, and I do wonder if Hernandez is going to move to second base, a la Cabrera with the Nationals. I view both Jake Marisnick and Colin Moran as prospects with busty tendencies. Francis Martes is too far away right now for a team that has an outside chance at something in the immediate future not too gamble on giving away for pieces that might strengthen that chance. I see upgrades for the Marlins all round, here.

2014 Nationals' Fielding Review #6

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        7.0     +0.6   -1.7
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        5.7     +1.3   -2.0
Span (CF)          -0.4     +1.5    .934    +.016       .923        2.6     +2.9    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.1     -1.1    .788    +.004       .788        5.7     +2.1    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -1.9     +2.4    .800    +.004       .807      - 8.0      ---    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.3     +0.1    .872    +.023       .871      - 5.5     -2.1    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -2.3     +0.3    .803    +.005       .793      -10.8     -0.4    n/a
Werth (RF)         -4.5     -2.9    .933    +.004       .895      - 8.6     -3.5    n/a
Rendon (3B)         0.4     +0.7    .699    -.006       .708        2.4     +1.4    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .905    +.003       .871        0.6     -1.6    n/a
Rendon (2B)         2.0     ---     .857     ---        .788      - 8.0     ---     n/a 
minimum 180 innings

By UZR Denard Span continues to improve, by exactly the same amount as last time. Danny Espinosa gave back all of his UZR improvement from the last review. Span and Anthony Rendon at third are the two players seen as improving both by the traditional statistics of DRA and by the play-by-play analysis of UZR. The only player losing ground under both systems was Jayson Werth. Rendon is now in the list as a secondbaseman as well as a thirdbaseman. Ryan Zimmerman at third just missed the cut.

Overall, both systems see the Nationals as seemingly having to found their level for the season. UZR adds up to a 0.7 increase, which is probably indicative of random variaton. DRA, including catchers, sees an identical improvement. UZR adds up the Nationals' regular fielders to -7.8, or costing the team about three-quarters of a win. DRA sees matters almost twice as bad, with -16.9 runs, or almost two wins. However, one probably ought to double the UZR total to get a better idea of the team's fielding over an entire season.

Wilson Ramos' pitch framing went down las time by 2.5 runs and this time by 1.4 runs. Jose Lobaton also slipped a bit, losing 0.4 runs, giving back some of his improvement last time. So, overall, the Nationals' catchers haven't been able to get the calls during this past two weeks or so.
____
* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

2014 Nationals Hitters' Batted Balls in Review #1

I have been spending more time on the World Cup than on baseball this past month, but during that I decided to start another regular review of batters' hitting, similar to my fielding reviews. Where the fielding reviews try to compare different systems to gain some sort of sense of just how much fielding is contributing to wins and losses, this review is going to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.

Ian  Desmond             42      33    + 9
Adam  LaRoche            49      43    + 6
Danny  Espinosa          22      20    + 2
Zach  Walters             4       3    + 1 
Anthony  Rendon          56      56      0
Ryan  Zimmerman          24      24      0
Bryce  Harper            12      12      0
Wilson  Ramos            19      20    - 1
Tyler  Moore              8       9    - 1
Scott  Hairston           4       5    - 1
Steven  Souza             0       1    - 1
Jayson  Werth            53      55    - 2
Greg  Dobbs               1       3    - 2
Jose  Lobaton            11      14    - 3
Nate  McLouth            11      15    - 4
Sandy  Leon               2       6    - 4 
Kevin  Frandsen          12      20    - 8
Denard  Span             40      58    -18

Poor Denard Span. He has been poorly rewarded for his efforts at the plate. I don't think any other hitter is wildly out of line with his results, but I do note that Danny Espinosa, whose .214/.282/.343 slash line isn't all that impressive to begin with, has been hitting a little bit above expectations.

Nationals 2014 Games 78, 79, 80, 81: dimidium in Chicago

Dough Fister's rickety start was possibly a lost opportunity, but sometimes it is just not your day. Adam LaRoche could have hit better in that game, but he redeemed himself in Saturday night's affair, virtually winning that with his bat alone (although the pitching helped).

QMAX ratings:   (5,2) for Fister (Soldier of Fortune)
                (7,3) for Roark (Hit Hard)
                (1,3) for Gonzalez (Success Square)
                (3,3) for Treinen (Success Square)

Bullpen Awards: Goat's Head for Stammen

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values: 
Rendon        0.552
Ramos         0.156
Span          0.117
McLouth       0.075
Frandsen      0.070
Zimmerman     0.052
Werth        -0.019
Gonzalez     -0.037
Hairston     -0.039
Treinen      -0.070
LaRoche      -0.103
Lobaton      -0.113
Roark        -0.122
Fister       -0.140
Espinosa     -0.160 
Desmond      -0.682

2014 Nationals Fielding Review #5

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        6.4     -0.2   -1.3
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        4.4     -0.6   -0.6
Span (CF)          -1.9     +1.5    .918    -.001       .923      - 0.3     +3.6    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       1.2     +1.1    .784    -.006       .788        3.6     +2.5    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -4.3     -2.9    .796    -.008       .807      - 8.0     -2.2    n/a
McLouth (LF)       -0.6     +0.1    .880     ---        .871      - 1.2     +0.1    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.4     +0.2    .849    -.029       .871      - 3.4     -0.5    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -2.6     +1.3    .798    -.001       .793      -10.4     -1.7    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.6     +0.7    .929    -.004       .895      - 5.1     -1.1    n/a
Rendon (3B)        -0.3     -0.8    .705    -.008       .708        1.0     +0.6    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     -0.3    .902    -.069       .871        2.2     -1.9    n/a
minimum 170 innings

RZR thinks the Nationals' fielding has decline across the board, although as usual one must also take note of the league averages when using RZR. Comparing individual players with their league peers suggests that overall the Nationals fielding stands comparison, although decline in RZR by Adam LaRoche continues.

UZR and DRA diverge in their opinions of Bryce Harper (UZR up, DRA down), Ian Desmond (ditto), Jaysotops the list of those rising n Werth (ditto again), and Anthony Rendon (UZR down, DRA up). LaRoche leads the declines in both of these systems, while Denard Span is tops on the list of improvers. UZR thinks that overall the Nationals' regulars have improved again, up by 0.9. DRA sees a slight improvement, up by 1.1, but that still leaves the bulk of the Nationals' sharp fall last time weighing them down.

Ramos' pitch framing went down quite a bit, by 2.5 runs. Lobaton improved slightly, by 1.4. So, overall, the Nationals' catchers haven't been able to get the calls during this past two weeks or so.
____
* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

2014 Nationals Game 75: omnes salve basipilus ex Earl Weaver!

All hail the three-run homer! Adam LaRoche's bat pretty much carried the team to victory, with his home run in the third inning. I was not particularly confident after the bases-loaded flop in the second inning, but my pessimism proved unwarranted, even after Gio Gonzalez pitched himself into a jam in the Brewers' third. The bullpen never looked worried, either. The ideal game for aficionados of Earl Weaver baseball, with a quality pitching performance and enough offense to bring home the 'W'.

Highest Leverage PA:     3.1, Gomez fly out vs Gonzalez, Brewers 3rd. 
Highest LI Win Value:   .554 LaRoche homer vs Garza, Nationals 3rd.
QMAX rating:             (3,4) for Gonzalez (SS).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

LaRoche        0.601
Desmond        0.214
Werth          0.113
Zimmerman      0.043
Rendon        -0.004
Dobbs         -0.005
Hairston      -0.010
Span          -0.068
Espinosa      -0.243
Gonzalez      -0.291
Lobaton       -0.296

2014 Nationals Fielding Review #4

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. The last is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. DRA is added to these two, while I have dropped Dewan's Defensive Runs Saved. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        6.6     +0.3   -1.7
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.5     -0.2   -0.6
Span (CF)          -3.4     -2.0    .925    -.004       .923      - 3.9     -0.3    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.1     +0.1    .790    +.011       .784        1.1     -1.2    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -1.4     +0.9    .807    -.065       .812      - 5.8     -4.7    n/a
McLouth (LF)       -0.7     +0.3    .880     ---        .873      - 1.3     -0.5    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.6     +0.1    .875     ---        .873      - 2.9     -0.3    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -3.9     +0.7    .799    +.004       .793      - 8.7     +2.0    n/a
Werth (RF)         -2.3     -1.0    .933    +.001       .900      - 4.0     -3.2    n/a
Rendon (3B)         0.5     +1.5    .713    +.006       .706        0.4     -0.6    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.7      --     .971     ---        .873        2.2      --     n/a
minimum 160 innings

Let's start by looking at where the systems agree. UZR, RZR and DRA all think that Denard Span's fielding declined, with UZR seeing the decline as quite sharp. All three are also of the opinion that Ian Desmond's fielding has improved, with DRA seeing a substantial improvement. All other indicators are mixed, but RZR and DRA think Adam LaRoche's fielding has suffered in the past couple of weeks. DRA and UZR think Jayson Werth's fielding has declined. The interesting thing here is that in the last review DRA thought these same two players improved. I am of the opinion that this might well reflect the influence of Werth's counterparts on other teams pushing the league averages up. LaRoche's sharp RZR decline makes me think the falls in UZR and DRA are more meaningful.

Looking at overall sums, UZR sees a slight improvement of +0.6, which might have been a lot better except for the bad scores from Werth and Span. DRA, by contrast, sees a -8.7-run decline, which is almost an entire win. RZR sees all the regulars performing around league average, with the exceptions of Werth and Ryan Zimmerman. Owing to family issues, I haven't been able to follow the games over this time, so I can't comment about which I think better matches my impressions.

Both catchers saw their pitch-framing runs saved decline by 0.3.
____
* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

2014 Nationals Fielding Review #3

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. The last is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. DRA is added to these two, while I have dropped Dewan's Defensive Runs Saved. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    MLBaverage     DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        6.3     +0.2   -1.2
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.7     --     -0.3
Span (CF)          -1.4     +1.2    .929    -.003       .914      - 3.6     +0.4    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.0     +0.3    .779    +.013       .789        2.3     -2.2    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -2.3     -2.1    .868    +.022       .812      - 1.1     +2.9    n/a
McLouth (LF)       -1.0      --     .880     ---        .872      - 0.8     --      n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.7     -0.2    .875     ---        .872      - 2.6     +0.8    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -4.6     -0.1    .795    +.033       .775      -10.7     +0.8    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.3     -3.5    .932    -.023       .895      - 0.8     +2.0    n/a
Rendon (3B)        -1.2     +2.8    .707    +.009       .709        1.0     +1.5    n/a
minimum 130 innings

The abysmal Nationals' fielding of the early season now seems to have done a little bit of 'regression to the mean, no matter what particular statistic one looks at. We see some extreme results, with DRA, the method using traditional fielding statistics, seeing improvement from Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth, while UZR takes a remarkably opposed view. RZR splits the difference, with one up and one down. Interestingly, RZR now sees Ian Desmond as an above-average shortstop, while DRA and RZR think he is improved but still the worst regular on the team. Anthony Rendon has improved quite dramatically with more time at third base.

If one sums the UZR changes, the Nationals' regulars have deteriorated by about -1.6 runs, and locates the problem on the right side of the field, with Werth and LaRoche dampening the improvement elsewhere. DRA sees a 6.1-run improvement, which is half a win. The Nationals are winning more, too. Once again, my own impression aligns more with DRA.

As a side note, the pitch-framing data for the catchers shows some improvement for Lobaton, who scored -2.1 last time.
____
* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

Nationals 2014 Game 52 and Tigers 2014 Game 49: illi contigit et tunc mea felis moriut

The Nationals went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position, and Anthony Rendon managed to be at the plate for three of those. More and more I think I want to see him switch with Span and move into to the leadoff position. He walks a bit more than Denard Span, and maybe he'll do a better job of setting the table than coming up with men on. (Not that it makes a lot of difference after the first time through the lineup.) The problem, though, is that Span hits a lot more ground balls than Rendon, and certainly the tenth would have ended more quickly if they had been swapped yesterday, as it seems like Span would have grounded into a double play.

Despite my worries about Jordan Zimmermann, yesterday he put in a fringy quality start, at the limit of the QMAX Success Square despite giving up eight hits. He threw more fastballs, more breaking balls and fewer sliders. His fastballs look like they had a bit more velocity, but at some cost in movement.

Highest Leverage PA:     6.1, McGehee single vs Barrett, Marlins 10th. 
Highest LI Win Value:   -.773 McGehee single vs Barrett, Marlins 10th.
QMAX rating:             (4,3) for Zimmermann (SS).
Bullpen Award:           Barrett, Goat's Head.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.876
McLouth        0.837
Desmond        0.163
Hairston       0.097
Espinosa       0.069
Ramos         -0.010
Zimmermann    -0.022
Moore         -0.032
Dobbs         -0.289
Frandsen      -0.466
LaRoche       -0.496
Werth         -0.511
Rendon        -0.810

vs Mets

vs Marlins

Having met disappointment in DC, I headed across country via the magic of the Internet and was entranced by a eminently watchable pitching duel between Anibal Sanchez and Scott Kazmir in Oakland. Kazmir's amazing 'fall off the table' pitch time and again fooled Tiger batters. Sanchez met him pitch for pitch, working the zone in such a way that gained the umpire's approval but left the Athletics to stalk away shaking their heads with grimaces of disgust. Sanchez was pulled in the ninth after giving up a double and then the ghost of Jose Valverde, disguised as Joe Nathan, took the mound. 'Oimoi', as they used to say in Ancient Greek tragedy.

Highest Leverage PA:     7.5, Donaldson HR vs Nathan, Athletics 9th. 
Highest LI Win Value:   -1.819, Donaldson HR vs Nathan, Athletics 9th.
QMAX rating:             (1,1) for Sanchez (ES).
Bullpen Award:           Nathan, Goat's Head.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Rajai          0.026
V-Mart         0.004
A-Jax         -0.014
Worth         -0.020
JD-Mart       -0.039
Cabrera       -0.038
Castellanos   -0.044
Hunter        -0.047
Avila         -0.085
Kinsler       -0.188

Nationals 2014 Game 51: virtutus non semper est praemium

Tanner Roark pitched like an elite pitcher yesterday, and was rewarded with an 'L' in the box score. The relievers held up their end, too. No Marlins hitter reached on an error. So, if we blame anyone for the loss, it has to be the hitters. Either Santangelo or Carpenter was saying at one point in the game that the Nationals needed to get on base. Perhaps they do, but I count them going 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position. Ian Desmond has been hitting well of late, but yesterday he struck out twice with a runner in scoring position. My abiding image of the game, however, will be his third and final K, when he was absolutely fooled by the kind of swing-back action from a Steve Cishek pitch that would fool an All-Star.

Highest Leverage PA:     3.3, PA#66, W Ramos fly-out vs Cishek, Nationals 9th. 
Highest LI Win Value:    .234, PA#13, LaRoche HR vs Eovaldi, Nationals 6th.
QMAX rating:             (2,2) for Roark (Elite Square).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

LaRoche        0.167
Frandsen      -0.015
McLouth       -0.030
Roark         -0.032
Ramos         -0.041
Espinosa      -0.045
Rendon        -0.050
Werth         -0.070
Moore         -0.070
Span          -0.136
Desmond       -0.176

Nationals 2014 Game 42: Doleo

Game Date 17 May 2014, Mets 5, Nationals 2

Highest Leverage PA:     2.4, PA#5, Campbell single vs Gonzalez, Mets' 1st.
Highest LI Win Value:   -.138, PA#19, Moore GDP vs Colon, Nationals' 2nd.
QMAX rating:             (7,5) for Gonzalez (Hit Hard).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Desmond        0.079
Stammen        0.046
Werth          0.020
McLouth        0.007
Espinosa      -0.014
Gonzalez      -0.029
Walters       -0.029
Rendon        -0.079
Span          -0.100
Ramos         -0.129
Moore         -0.170

Craig Stammen arguable deserves a Hero's Palm for his relief effort in this game, but I am reluctant to award
them in losses. The Nationals failed to take advantage of any of three opportunities with runners in scoring
position, which was the difference in the final score. Gio Gonzalez went on the disabled list after this, nd
in the pre-game chat on the radio the next day, Slowes and Jageler suggested the trouble had started back on
23 April, which in fact was a Success Square start by Gonzalez. Shoulder injuries for pitchers are
particularly worrying.

2014 Nationals' Fielding Review #2

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. The last is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. DRA is added to these two, while I have dropped Dewan's Defensive Runs Saved. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    MLBaverage     DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        6.1     +0.2   -2.1
Span (CF)          -2.6     -2.2    .932    +.010       .915      - 4.0     -1.1    n/a
Espinosa (2B)      -0.3     +0.7    .766    +.009       .786        3.5     -0.9    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -0.2      --     .846     ---        .813      - 4.0     -0.8    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.5     +0.3    .875     ---        .868      - 3.4     -0.5    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -4.5     +0.1    .762    +.042       .772      -11.5     -2.8    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.3     +0.6    .955    -.004       .888      - 2.8     -1.6    n/a
Rendon (3B)        -4.0     +1.0    .696    +.054       .720      - 0.5     +1.9    n/a
minimum 120 innings

Depending on which end of the chart one looks at, it's either good news or bad news. DRA, the method using traditional fielding statistics, thinks the Nationals have been getting worse. UZR and RZR, generally see improvement. A change that the table does not show, which is possibly relevant to this discussion, is in the MLB RZR averages by position. These fluctuate as well. In fact, UZR and DRA are both liable to be affected by the play of the rest of the league, as those plus/minus numbers are compared against the league average, which is constantly changing as games are played.

If one sums the UZR changes, the Nationals' regulars have improved by about +0.5 of a run. That isn't very much, but they are improving slightly in the infield, which is where they need to improve. Doing the same with the DRA numbers nets you a minus 5.6 runs, or almost half a win. My own impression aligns more with DRA I'm afraid. Last night's game turned on Kevin Frandsen's muffed play at third base, although the blame for the loss really belongs to the Nationals' hitters, who should manage to score more than one run a game.
____
* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

Nationals 2014 Game 46: Vibravit, Praeterivit

Highest Leverage PA:     4.1, PA#65, Ramos K vs Broxton, Nationals' 8th.
Greatest LI Win Value:   -.145, PA#16, Roark GDP vs Simon, Nationals' 2nd.
QMAX rating:             (4,4) for Roark (Uncategorised).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.181
McLouth        0.056
Dobbs         -0.047
Moore         -0.059
Roark         -0.103
Desmond       -0.104
Frandsen      -0.111
Werth         -0.157
Espinosa      -0.158
Ramos         -0.185

Denard Span's home run filled one with hope, but this was an example of the kind of game the Nationals really need to win on a regular basis if there is to be any hope of post-season baseball for Washington. Tanner Roark's GDP in the 2nd inning signified the true course the contest would take. After the Reds took the lead in the fourth inning, the Nationals went 0 for 3 with runners in scoring position. Nationals' hitters also struck out five times in the ensuing five innings before Aroldis Chapman came in, which works out as a 9 K/9 for a pitcher. That's as if the Nationals were facing 2013's Cliff Lee. But, in fact, they faced Alfredo Simon (5.6 K/9 in 2014 so far) and Jonathan Broxton (6.8 K/9). The Nationals certainly flattered those two last night.

Nationals 2014 Game 45: Quinque Palmi

Highest Leverage PA:     3.2, PA#42, Heisey 5-3g.o. vs Fister, Reds' 6th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .101, PA#23, e5 allowing Fister to score, Nationals' 3rd.
QMAX rating:             (3,2) for Fister (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.171
Fister         0.023
Moore          0.004
Werth          0.002
Walters        0.000
Frandsen      -0.008
Espinosa      -0.012
Rendon        -0.013
Lobaton       -0.038
Desmond       -0.069

Doug Fister's third start of 2014 was not quite as good as his second start, but still significantly better than his first start, moreso in hit prevention than in command. Denard Span's five-hit game led the Nationals' hitting, which is greatly reflected in the LI Win Values. One is entitled to wonder why the overall values are quite so low after scoring nine runs. Early big leads hurt leverage badly.

As my two GIFs show, Fister's 2014 pattern still does not quite match his 2013 one. He's still not getting the ball down quite as much. Is it intentional?

2013 Doug Fister

2014 Doug Fister

Nationals 2014 Game 41: Captura Preti

Highest Leverage PA:     1.7, PA#7, Werth single vs Niese, Nationals' 1st.
                         1.7, PA#65, Wright K vs Clippard, Mets' 8th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .090, PA#50, Duda GDP vs Detwiler, Mets' 6th.
QMAX rating:             (3,4) for Roark (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           Hero's Palm for Jayson Werth!.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Hairston       0.080
Werth          0.072
Rendon         0.055
Span           0.044
Moore          0.029
Ramos          0.001
Roark         -0.002
Dobbs         -0.005
McLouth       -0.010
Espinosa      -0.029
Desmond       -0.049

Last Friday's defeat of the Mets once again allowed my favourite National, Jayson Werth, to shine. However, it is also a game that demonstrates how quickly baseball contest can turn around with a lead of three runs or less. Had it been up to Rafael Soriano alone, the Mets would have tied the game. In this case, Soriano got a save that should have gone to Werth.

New National Greg Dobbs is perhaps treated unfairly in this game. His timely hit scored him a bit, but being thrown out at home took him into negative territory on my LI Win Values. Was that really his fault?

Nationals 2014 Game 04: Painful Loss

Highest Leverage PA:     5.1, PA#64, Zimmmerman K vs Carpenter, Nationals' 8th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .148, PA#31, Gattis HR vs Zimmermann, Braves' 5th.
QMAX rating:             (3,3) for Zimmermann (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           Goat's Head for Clippard.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Werth          0.150
Rendon         0.146
Zimmermann    -0.026
Lobaton       -0.041
McLouth       -0.047
Frandsen      -0.049
Espinosa      -0.055
Zimmerman     -0.063
Desmond       -0.113
Span          -0.130
LaRoche       -0.215
Harper        -0.221

The data from this game of 3rd April was not yet recorded in the sidebar, so I have finally got round to processing it. The Braves beat the Nationals 2-1, at Nationals' Park. As the LI Win Values data above shows, the defeat owed a lot to a failure to drive in baserunners. When one sees high plus and negative values at the extremes, that marks out baserunners who don't score. Adam LaRoche's numbers were badly damaged when he was thrown out at home in the fourth.

Tracking the Aggregate LI Win Value showed the Nationals with a narrow edge until the eighth inning, when the Braves' Carpenter allowed Anthony Rendon to single and walked Jayson Werth. The next three Nationals' batters, however, struck out. The Aggregate LI Win Value only finally drifted into negative territory then.

A tense game that was a joy to follow, even if it ended in heartbreak.

Nationals 2014 Game 40: Triumphus Pugilis

Highest Leverage PA:     3.4, PA#58, Rendon double vs Ziegler, Nationals' 9th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .224, PA#58, Rendon double vs Ziegler, Nationals' 9th.
QMAX rating:             (2,1) for Fister (Elite Square).
Bullpen Award:           Hero's Palm for Clippard.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Werth          0.209
Rendon         0.133
Desmond        0.113
McLouth        0.050
Hairston      -0.003
Frandsen      -0.021
Fister        -0.027
Span          -0.037
Moore         -0.051
Lobaton       -0.097
Espinosa      -0.109

Doug Fister put in the kind of performance that restores one's faith in the notion that he has been a criminally undervalued pitcher. It was unfortunate that he did not get the victory, as the Nationals' hitters could not get going until the Diamondbacks' Brad Ziegler got in the game.

I have returned to Brooks Baseball so that you can compare how Fister located pitches in his two starts so far. Note the smaller percentage of pitches in the middle of the zone, and how he works the edges better. I have also included a chart showing all the pitches that ended right-handed hitters' at-bats, and highlighted two in particular, to show just how baseball is a game of fine distinctions. The red one is Aaron Hill's home run in the Diamondbacks' fourth. The blue one is, one batter later, Cody Ross' ground-out to third. (Remember, these are all from the catcher's perspective. Click on the image to enlarge them.)

2014 Fister's Second Start:

2014 Fister's First Start:

Baseball is a game of Fine Distinctions: