EarlyThoughts on Deadline Deals

The trade deadline day proved suitably dramatic. Here is a roundup of my thoughts on the deals involving the teams I keep an eye on.

David Price for Drew Smyly, Austin Jackson and Will Adames I don't think one can analyse this deal properly without taking into account the deal in the offseason that sent Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals, the decline of Justin Verlander and contract negotiations with Max Scherzer. Smyly didn't quite step into Fister's shoes, while the other two elements have put the Tigers in a position of not having more than one plausible candidate for #1 Ace status for 2015, after several years of having two. Trading for Price is a signal to Scherzer that the Tigers are re-tooling for a Scherzer-less future, and puts pressure on Scherzer to think carefully about whether his chances for post-season play may be as good for more dollars elsewhere. But, my goodness, it will take deep pockets to sign both Price and Scherzer.

Having said that, my own impression is that Price may be, as I suggested about Joakim Soria, a player whom the Tigers are getting possibly as he has passed his best. He did not start the season well, although he has come on strong subsequently. Furthermore, I don't like the effect that trading Jackson will have on the Tigers' outfield defence. Verlander, who already has problems, and the newly acquired Price may in particular suffer (although possibly not as much as Scherzer, which further adds to my view that some of this trade is about Scherzer). While Adames was showing promise, the presence of Jose Iglesias and Eugenio Salazar in the organisation meant the Tigers had the depth to deal away a good prospect. Overall, though, I think this trade did not particularly strengthen the team for 2014, but has made it worse in the medium term, if only a little bit. (But a lot if the Tigers cannot sign either of Price or Scherzer.)

Asdrubal Cabrera for Zach Walters This deal is about... well, it is really about hitting. The Nationals have had great difficulty driving in runs for most of the season, and Cabrera ought to make that aspect of their game better. But the deal is really about injuries. I don't think there would be a problem with Anthony Rendon at second base and Ryan Zimmerman at third base and Danny Espinosa on the bench, but the Z-Man can't stay in the field, and the Nationals are really not as good a team without him. I'm not at all convinced that a mid-season shift is going to be as painless for the Nationals' infield defence as some people think. I see the potential for major improvement for 2014 here, at no major cost to the medium-term outlook.

The Marlins' Six-Player Swap with the Astros This is the most appealing trade of the day for me. Jarred Cosart gives the Marlins some depth to the rotation, an area they have been lacking in this season. Enrique Hernandez and Andrew Wates are interesting prospects, and I do wonder if Hernandez is going to move to second base, a la Cabrera with the Nationals. I view both Jake Marisnick and Colin Moran as prospects with busty tendencies. Francis Martes is too far away right now for a team that has an outside chance at something in the immediate future not too gamble on giving away for pieces that might strengthen that chance. I see upgrades for the Marlins all round, here.

Nationals 2014 Games 78, 79, 80, 81: dimidium in Chicago

Dough Fister's rickety start was possibly a lost opportunity, but sometimes it is just not your day. Adam LaRoche could have hit better in that game, but he redeemed himself in Saturday night's affair, virtually winning that with his bat alone (although the pitching helped).

QMAX ratings:   (5,2) for Fister (Soldier of Fortune)
                (7,3) for Roark (Hit Hard)
                (1,3) for Gonzalez (Success Square)
                (3,3) for Treinen (Success Square)

Bullpen Awards: Goat's Head for Stammen

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values: 
Rendon        0.552
Ramos         0.156
Span          0.117
McLouth       0.075
Frandsen      0.070
Zimmerman     0.052
Werth        -0.019
Gonzalez     -0.037
Hairston     -0.039
Treinen      -0.070
LaRoche      -0.103
Lobaton      -0.113
Roark        -0.122
Fister       -0.140
Espinosa     -0.160 
Desmond      -0.682

Nationals 2014 Game 45: Quinque Palmi

Highest Leverage PA:     3.2, PA#42, Heisey 5-3g.o. vs Fister, Reds' 6th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .101, PA#23, e5 allowing Fister to score, Nationals' 3rd.
QMAX rating:             (3,2) for Fister (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.171
Fister         0.023
Moore          0.004
Werth          0.002
Walters        0.000
Frandsen      -0.008
Espinosa      -0.012
Rendon        -0.013
Lobaton       -0.038
Desmond       -0.069

Doug Fister's third start of 2014 was not quite as good as his second start, but still significantly better than his first start, moreso in hit prevention than in command. Denard Span's five-hit game led the Nationals' hitting, which is greatly reflected in the LI Win Values. One is entitled to wonder why the overall values are quite so low after scoring nine runs. Early big leads hurt leverage badly.

As my two GIFs show, Fister's 2014 pattern still does not quite match his 2013 one. He's still not getting the ball down quite as much. Is it intentional?

2013 Doug Fister

2014 Doug Fister

Nationals 2014 Game 40: Triumphus Pugilis

Highest Leverage PA:     3.4, PA#58, Rendon double vs Ziegler, Nationals' 9th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .224, PA#58, Rendon double vs Ziegler, Nationals' 9th.
QMAX rating:             (2,1) for Fister (Elite Square).
Bullpen Award:           Hero's Palm for Clippard.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Werth          0.209
Rendon         0.133
Desmond        0.113
McLouth        0.050
Hairston      -0.003
Frandsen      -0.021
Fister        -0.027
Span          -0.037
Moore         -0.051
Lobaton       -0.097
Espinosa      -0.109

Doug Fister put in the kind of performance that restores one's faith in the notion that he has been a criminally undervalued pitcher. It was unfortunate that he did not get the victory, as the Nationals' hitters could not get going until the Diamondbacks' Brad Ziegler got in the game.

I have returned to Brooks Baseball so that you can compare how Fister located pitches in his two starts so far. Note the smaller percentage of pitches in the middle of the zone, and how he works the edges better. I have also included a chart showing all the pitches that ended right-handed hitters' at-bats, and highlighted two in particular, to show just how baseball is a game of fine distinctions. The red one is Aaron Hill's home run in the Diamondbacks' fourth. The blue one is, one batter later, Cody Ross' ground-out to third. (Remember, these are all from the catcher's perspective. Click on the image to enlarge them.)

2014 Fister's Second Start:

2014 Fister's First Start:

Baseball is a game of Fine Distinctions:

Nationals 2014 Game 35: pugnator impugnamur

Highest Leverage PA:     1.3, PA#8, Moss single vs Fister, A's 1st.
Highest LI Win Value:    .098, PA#21, Jaso homer vs Fister, A's' 3rd.
QMAX rating:             (7,3) for Fister (Hit Hard).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Hairston       0.022
Walters        0.000
Werth         -0.023
Rendon        -0.034
Desmond       -0.037
Frandsen      -0.037
Span          -0.042
Ramos         -0.044
Espinosa      -0.047
LaRoche       -0.048

With Doug Fister making his second start of the season today, I thought it was about time to get some analysis of his first start up.

This game was another shellacking for the Nationals. This was the seventh loss by five runs or more during this season, which is not good. The sad-sack Astros have suffered fewer blow-outs than the Nats.

Fister seemed to leave a lot of balls up in the zone, which the Athletics' hitters feasted upon. Let's assume that he'll get this under control. I have posted two images from Brooks Baseball showing Fister's first six weeks in 2013, and one showing his last start. This is from the catcher's perspective As you can see, he's not keeping his pitches down-and-in quite enough. Keep your eye out for that.

2014 Fister:

2013 Fister:

Tigers 2014 Game 28: Radius a Sole?

Highest Leverage PA:     1.8, PA#46, Carter reach on e4 vs Ray, Astros' 6th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .117, PA#52, Dominguez GDP vs Reed, Astros' 7th.
QMAX rating:             (3,3) for Ray (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Worth          0.060
Kinsler        0.049
Cabrera        0.047
V Martinez     0.041
Castellanos    0.018
Avila          0.011
Jackson        0.001
Hunter        -0.002
JD Martinez   -0.060

There was a higher-leveraged event than PA#46, which was when Jason Castro was put out at 2B following Ian Kinsler's drop of Chris Carter's pop-up in the sixth.

The question that arises for Nationals' fans is whether the Nationals will miss Robbie Ray in the long run. Was the trade for Doug Fister really worth it? We are in no position to give any kind of definitive answer after one big-league start. All we can do is assess the effect the trade had on the Nationals' farm system. Without doubt losing Ray weakened the Nationals' farm system. One notes the next two left-handers on the Baseball America prospect list have the following written about them in the Prospect Handbook:

Solis: "Staying healthy has been an issue for Solis since college days...[he] has a chance to be a No 4 starter in the majors."

Purke: Purke has lost prospect lustre...he still has a chance to become a back-end starter if he can harness his command."

Sammy Solis is showing on MiLB.com as on the disabled list still, having suffered a back injury. The most recent report on his health I can find is an early April Baseball America report. Matt Purke's ERA in AA currently stands at 7.18. QMAXing his AA starts this season produces 3 Uncategorised, 2 Hit Hard and 1 Success Square outing. The Success Square credit was earned in his last start, on 7 May, so perhaps we can take some heart from that.

If you haven't already seen it, there is a good article about Ray's outing on Fangraphs. What's really interesting is that author Jeff Sullivan notes that Ray has scrapped plans for a slider and is working on a curve ball. The Tigers under Dave Dombrowski have put a lot of emphasis on power fastball-slider pitching. Ray currently represents a departure from that. Also, if you missed the Tigers' radio broadcast of the game, we learned that Ray popped up on the Tigers' radar after an outing against their AA farm club at Erie last season. The Ray trade looks like one that was planned for a long time which, given the Dombrowski's track record, is not necessarily bad news for the Nationals.

Late Thoughts About the Fister Trade

Last week, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com published lists of the ten best and ten worst trades of the past off-season. It probably comes as no surprise to find the trade between the Tigers and the Nationals that sent Doug Fister to Washington in return for a prospect with possibilities and roster filler that addressed some key issues within the Tigers' likely 25-men topped both lists. There was a lot of head-scratching at Baseball Think Factory to the amount of 309 comments. It was nearly the transaction that relaunched this blog, even. (In fact, I came closer to writing about the Mets' signing Curtis Granderson.)

Cast your mind back eleven-and-a-half years ago, to June 2002. Dave Dombrowski had a few months earlier fired Randy Smith and become general manager. The Expos were still in Montréal. That horrible Tigers' 2003 season was still in the future. At that time, Dombrowski sent a key member of the Tigers' pitching rotation in a three-way trade that netted him a prospect pitcher, a reliever and a prospect slugger. It was a better return than he got for Fister, but Jeff Weaver was a better-paid pitcher. The players the Tigers got were all relative disappointments in that Jeremy Bonderman did not quite live up to expectations, while Franklyn German and Carlos Peña fell well short.

The thing is, at the time rumours swirled around that Weaver was being exiled from Detroit. A month later, we were able to read more detailed allegations of the kind of behaviour that Dombrowski (or possibly Mr Ilitch) found unwelcome in a member of the Tigers' team. (Note the name of one of the players allegedly using profanity on that occasion was the Tigers' rookie manager for 2014, Brad Ausmus, back then the team's catcher.) The question is whether Fister created some kind of issues in the clubhouse. The answer is that I haven't been able to find any, despite a vague memory of him saying or doing something I thought was a bit much during 2013. (No, as much as I would like to, I am not going to wade through all the 2013 Tigers' broadcasts using my MLB GameDay Audio subscription.)

Using the 2002 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, the Tigers' got back for Weaver the #1 (Peña) and #9 (German) prospects for the Athletics, plus the Athletics' #1 pick in the draft. In 2011, in trading for Fister, the Tigers sent their BA-ranked #4 (Francisco Martinez), #7 (Chance Ruffin), #19 (Casper Wells) and #26 (Charlie Furbush) prospects, and got lefty David Pauley as well. At the time those who knew their baseball knew that Fister was doing an excellent job for the Mariners, so the question becomes how does the haul the Mariners got in 2011 compare with the Tigers who came over from the Nationals? In 2013, the Nationals sent #18 (Ray) plus their #10 from 2012 (Lombardozzi) and the Athletics' #29 (Krol). Ray, however, jumped to #5 in the 2014 list, compiled before the trade.

Looking back over that Baseball Think Factory thread, the analysis of the trade by fans falls into two broad camps. On one side are those who agreed with Fangraphs' Cameron that the Tigers got fleeced ('the Fleecers'). On the other are those who think Dombrowski knows something we don't. Looking at the Weaver trade and the two trades of Fister, I'm inclined to think that Mike Rizzo got a good deal, but more of the '15 per cent off' kind, than a 30 per cent or 50 per cent deal that the Fleecers believe. Dombrowski may have decided to take the deal in order to crack on with other moves, rather than holding out for something that was closer to Fister's WAR value. That seems to be the underlying message in this article. The overall point is that it appears the fans don't judge the value of players available in trade in quite the same way that real-life executives do. It may be that in a couple of years we'll come back to this trade as the moment when the Decline and Fall of the Dombrowski Empire began. But at the moment, I think the Fleecers are being a bit overenthusiastic.