Highest Leverage PA: 3.1, Gomez fly out vs Gonzalez, Brewers 3rd. Highest LI Win Value: .554 LaRoche homer vs Garza, Nationals 3rd. QMAX rating: (3,4) for Gonzalez (SS). Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:
LaRoche 0.601 Desmond 0.214 Werth 0.113 Zimmerman 0.043 Rendon -0.004 Dobbs -0.005 Hairston -0.010 Span -0.068 Espinosa -0.243 Gonzalez -0.291 Lobaton -0.296
Highest Leverage PA: 2.4, PA#5, Campbell single vs Gonzalez, Mets' 1st. Highest LI Win Value: -.138, PA#19, Moore GDP vs Colon, Nationals' 2nd. QMAX rating: (7,5) for Gonzalez (Hit Hard). Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:
Desmond 0.079 Stammen 0.046 Werth 0.020 McLouth 0.007 Espinosa -0.014 Gonzalez -0.029 Walters -0.029 Rendon -0.079 Span -0.100 Ramos -0.129 Moore -0.170Craig Stammen arguable deserves a Hero's Palm for his relief effort in this game, but I am reluctant to award
Highest Leverage PA: 2.3, PA#51 Johnson bunt vs Storen, Marlins 7th. Highest LI Win Value: .073, PA #19, Hechavarria caught stealing, Marlins 3rd. QMAX rating: (2,3) for Gonzalez (Success Square). Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:
LaRoche 0.075 Rendon 0.029 Harper 0.001 Moore -0.005 Werth -0.023 Espinosa -0.026 Gonzalez -0.032 Desmond -0.035 Lobaton -0.042 Span -0.066Beating the Marlins 5-0 did not do many people any favours, in terms of the kind of statistics I like to keep track of. The LI Win values are unspectacular, Gio Gonzalez' shutout wasn't quite good enough to make the 'Elite Square' and no-one came out of the bullpen to earn a Hero's Palm. Still, if you're the 'safe investor' kind of person, this was exactly what you came to the ballpark to see.
Highest Leverage PA: 2.1, PA#62 Duda K vs Clippard, Mets 8th. Highest LI Win Value: .148, PA #31, Desmond HR vs Colon, Nationals 5th. QMAX rating: (2,3) for Gonzalez (Success Square zone). Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:
Desmond 0.108 Werth 0.088 Gonzalez 0.033 Rendon 0.025 LaRoche 0.021 McLouth -0.005 Lobaton -0.028 Span -0.070 Zimmerman -0.071 Harper -0.094There's a higher-leveraged incident than Lucas Duda's PA, which is an event that occurred in the Mets' fifth: Ruben Tejada was thrown out by Bryce Harper at home, trying to score off Juan Lagares' double. That was worth .120 of a win, which compensated for Harper's negative batting performance.
The Highest Leverage PA is low, reflecting the fact that the Nationals took charge of this game with Ian Desmond's home run in the fifth. (How much is he worth now?)
I did not watch the game, following on the radio as is most common for me, but the numbers suggest that Gio Gonzalez was the key to winning this game.
After Tyler Clippard walked Tejada (funny how the name of such an apparently disappointing player appears twice in this report), I was worried that he wasn't quite the Clippard I came to appreciate so deeply in seasons past, but he bounced back quite strongly. But none of the reliever's performances really warranted a Hero's Palm. I have decided retrospectively, however, to award one to Aaron Barrett for his Game #1 outing.
Highest Leverage PA: 3.1, PA #73, Heisey F5 vs Mattheus, Reds' 8th. Highest Clutch Value: .172, PA #2, Bernadina HR vs Leake, Nationals' 1st. Lowest Opp. Clutch Value: -.081, PA #73, Heisey F5 vs Mattheus, Reds' 8th. QMAX rating: (4,5) for Gonzalez. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Bernadina 0.190 LaRoche 0.104 Zimmerman 0.052 Desmond 0.036 Espinosa 0.015 Ramos 0.005 Stammen -0.003 Ankiel -0.016 Gonzalez -0.025 Harper -0.069You remember those games earlier in the season, where the Nationals would squeeze out a victory through some timely hitting? This is a through-the-looking-glass version, in which some timely pitching squeezed out a victory. The Nationals did not have a good performance from Gio Gonzalez, but a mediocre one, and Craig Stammen managed to pitch his way into a jam in his third inning of work, following two solid innings. Stammen might have got a Hero's Palm had he not needed to be rescued by Ryan Mattheus. In other words, the pitching did just enough for the victory, in a situation that could easily have turned ugly twice over, in the 5th and again in the 8th.
Highest Leverage PA: 3.3, PA #46, Loney 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th. Highest Clutch Value: .172, PA #46, Londy 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th. Highest Nats' Clutch Value: .073, PA #21, Desmond 2B vs Capuano, Nationals' 4th. QMAX rating: Power Precipice (2,5) for Gonzalez. Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche 0.032 Moore 0.026 Harper -0.007 Desmond -0.014 Lombardozzi -0.024 Ankiel -0.041 Gonzalez -0.043 Tracy -0.059 Espinosa -0.068 Flores -0.170 Nady -0.190So the Nationals finished a six-game western road trip going 2-4. We have got a better measure of the team after this, as we can see that the problem is that they do not have enough offense to carry a playoff-calibre pitching staff into the post-season. It could be a team-wide slump, but for this particular game I question Davey Johnson's lineup. migraine led to Jayson Werth being a late scratch, which is the sort of thing that can't be helped, but Danny Espinosa is not the player I would have put in his place at #3. I would have gone with either "Country" (as opposed to "Mary") Tyler Moore or Bryce Harper, and probably Moore. The fact is, though Gio Gonzalez fell off the Power Precipice in the sixth, he still pitched well enough for a win, if he had the hitters to back him up.
Highest Leverage PA: 4.3 PA #56, Denorfia vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
Highest Leveraged Win Value: .187, PA #54, Perino vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
Highest Lev Win Val for Nats: .130, PA #49, Tracy vs Richard, Nationals' 7th.
Lowest Lev Win Val for Nats: -.121, PA #3, DeRosa vs Richard, Nationals' 1st.
QMAX rating: Success Square (1,3) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award: Hero's Palm to Clippard, for gaining .142 on Win
Probability
Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Tracy 0.130 Ankiel 0.055 Nady 0.047 Ramos 0.022 Werth -0.015 Bernadina -0.026 Desmond -0.033 Espinosa -0.042 LaRoche -0.05 Lombardozzi -0.068 Gonzalez -0.081 DeRosa -0.141Mark DeRosa's grounding into a double play in the top of first set the tone for this pitcher's duel. The crucial inning on both sides was the seventh, and for both teams the outcome of the game may have turned on bullpen usage. Bud Black may have been too slow in pulling Clayton Richard, while Davey Johnson wasted no time in taking Craig Stammen out when things turned a bit bad for him.