Highest Leverage PA: 3.3, PA#66, W Ramos fly-out vs Cishek, Nationals 9th. Highest LI Win Value: .234, PA#13, LaRoche HR vs Eovaldi, Nationals 6th. QMAX rating: (2,2) for Roark (Elite Square). Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:
LaRoche 0.167 Frandsen -0.015 McLouth -0.030 Roark -0.032 Ramos -0.041 Espinosa -0.045 Rendon -0.050 Werth -0.070 Moore -0.070 Span -0.136 Desmond -0.176
Highest Leverage PA: 4.1, PA#65, Ramos K vs Broxton, Nationals' 8th. Greatest LI Win Value: -.145, PA#16, Roark GDP vs Simon, Nationals' 2nd. QMAX rating: (4,4) for Roark (Uncategorised). Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:
Span 0.181 McLouth 0.056 Dobbs -0.047 Moore -0.059 Roark -0.103 Desmond -0.104 Frandsen -0.111 Werth -0.157 Espinosa -0.158 Ramos -0.185Denard Span's home run filled one with hope, but this was an example of the kind of game the Nationals really need to win on a regular basis if there is to be any hope of post-season baseball for Washington. Tanner Roark's GDP in the 2nd inning signified the true course the contest would take. After the Reds took the lead in the fourth inning, the Nationals went 0 for 3 with runners in scoring position. Nationals' hitters also struck out five times in the ensuing five innings before Aroldis Chapman came in, which works out as a 9 K/9 for a pitcher. That's as if the Nationals were facing 2013's Cliff Lee. But, in fact, they faced Alfredo Simon (5.6 K/9 in 2014 so far) and Jonathan Broxton (6.8 K/9). The Nationals certainly flattered those two last night.
Highest Leverage PA: 5.6, PA#60, Ibanez' double vs Clippard, Angels 8th. Highest LI Win Value: .370, PA#60, Ibanez' double vs Clippard, Angels 8th. QMAX rating: (5,3) for Roark (Uncategorised). Bullpen Award: Goat's Head for Clippard.Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:
Werth 0.078 Desmond 0.046 McLouth 0.017 LaRoche -0.014 Harper -0.019 Walters -0.022 Lobaton -0.031 Roark -0.045 Span -0.091 Espinosa -0.120 Rendon -0.136
It would be easy to say that this game was one that slipped away from the Nationals, but I'm inclined to think it was never there to begin with. The rest of this note was written during the game itself, including the tenses.
When Adam LaRoche walked to the plate in the bottom of the sixth, I felt that the Nationals needed to score in that inning if they wanted to be sure of winning the game. The gap between the two teams in hits suggested that sooner or later the pendulum would swing towards the Angels. The foul pop made me think it was not going to be the Nationals' night.
I was a bit surprised by the applause for Tanner Roark when he left the game in the seventh. He gave up too many hits and must be regarded as lucky not to have found himself leaving a tie game or worse. Good for him to have such luck, of course.
My sense of foreboding was increased when Tyler Clippard came in to start the eighth. Clippard has not been his old self in the games I have followed this season. By the time we had Kendrick at first, Pujols at third and Boesch at the plate, I felt the moment had come to see this game slip away. At that point my 'leveraged win value' for the game had swung into negative for the first time since the 27th PA in the Angels' fourth. Boesch popped up and I breathed a sigh of relief, only for Aybar's single to tie the game. By the time Clippard left the game, win probability had swung from .734 to .092. That's a 64 per cent shift.
Highest Leverage PA: 2.6, PA#56 LaRoche single vs Familia, Nationals 7th. Highest LI Win Value: .111, PA #12, Zimmerman HR vs Wheeler, Nationals 2nd. QMAX rating: (4,4) for Roark (Uncategorised). Bullpen Award: None.Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:
Zimmerman 0.220 Span 0.168 Werth 0.074 Espinosa 0.070 LaRoche 0.055 Rendon 0.042 Hairston 0.042 Frandsen -0.003 Leon -0.023 Roark -0.058 Harper -0.074 Desmond -0.277Zimmerman was the Star, Span continued on a tear, and the game was basically won by the hitters. Roark did not do badly, but his QMAX rating demonstrates a rather nondescript performance, which is still to be applauded.
