Washington Nationals Fielding in Review 2014

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers, one that closes the book on the 2014 Nationals fielding as monitored on this blog. ('Last time' was a l-o-o-o-n-n-g time ago, the end of July.) My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        8.8     +1.8    0.2
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.8     -2.9   -2.6
Span (CF)          -4.7     -4.3    .924    -.010       .919        8.2     +3.6    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       2.3     +2.2    .784    -.004       .787        5.0     -0.7    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -5.0     -3.1    .793    -.007       .796      -13.2     -5.2    n/a
Harper (LF)         1.5     +2.8    .886    +.014       .881        1.1     +6.6    n/a
Desmond (SS)        0.1     +2.4    .822    +.019       .799      -10.3     +0.5    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.6     +2.9    .931    -.002       .906      -10.0     -1.4    n/a
Rendon (3B)         4.2     +3.8    .683    -.016       .709        4.2     +1.8    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .907    +.002       .881      - 3.0     -3.6    n/a
A. Cabrera (2B)    -2.2     ---     .758     ---        .787      - 1.5     ---     n/a 
minimum 220 innings

I have been tracking fielding in this manner for a few years now, and my only solid conclusion is that by and large outfielders tend to find their RZR level for the season quite quickly, while infielders can be more mercurial. A metric like UZR, by contrast, swings quite wildly over the course of the season at all positions. This is the fundamental problem with metrics that apply a relative standard, which is the approach adopted the most widely accepted fielding metrics. This is to say that most fielding metrics measure a player's performance against an average for the position throughout the league. I find this deeply unsatisfactory. I have been thinking about this problem, and have a solution that I'd like to test; but I make no promises about posting it here at any time.

Moving on to the actual metrics, the most important thing for Nationals fans to note, I think, is just how much Bryce Harper improved as a left-fielder over the course of the season. Nonetheless, he is not much more than an average fielder overall. The defensive star for the Nationals seems to be Anthony Rendon, if one believes UZR, but RZR paints a very different picture. What is strange is that UZR gives him a high range value. One can only throw up one's hands in despair at such a divergent picture. DRA likes Denard Span best, but UZR seems to think he was one of the worse fielders. RZR suggests he was about average. Again, we see a slight divergence between RZR and UZR on Span's ability to range the outfield. Well, at least we can all agree that Adam LaRoche was a bit of a defensive liability, surely. Nope — though UZR and DRA see him as the worst regular on the team, RZR thinks his range was a little bit below league average.

The only person on whom the different metrics reach a consensus is Asdrubal Cabrera, who was got for his bat. Just as well, too. He is seen as a subpar with the glove.

Let me conclude with a note about Jose Lobaton. He was picked up to provide some defensive help, and to be honest he did exactly that. DRA likes his fielding, and his pitch-framing, which last time I checked was -1.7, rose into positive territory. A good acquisition, Mr Rizzo!

Nationals: Do or Die, My Good-bye

I was an Expos fan. In 2004, I listened to many of the games during that last season by means of MLB's GameDay audio. Compared to the previous two seasons of the MLB Expos, that demanded a degree of fortitude and loyalty. I still bear a deep grudge towards Brian O'Nora, who during an interleague game called a foul ball fair for a home run. When the Expos were moved to Washington, I was upset and my initial response was to look for an alternative team to follow, settling on the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, as luck would have it, the Diamondbacks were playing in Washington at the start of the 2005 season, and I decided to listen to Charlie Slowes and Dave Shea. I was charmed by Slowes in particular, and gradually my familiarity with the 2005 Nationals' roster holdovers from the Expos, and their division-leading antics, had me sticking by the team.

For younger Nationals' fans, who found that where baseball teams are concerned it is better to receive than to give, the kind of humility required to hang on to fandom of a team that is moved is possibly hard to envisage. Longer-term Washington baseball fans might know the feeling well, especially after the original Nationals/Senators became the Twins and went on to a very successful 1960s while the Replacements really gave meaning to the old saying, 'First in war, &c'. In this case, I was rooting for a bunch of people who had made life very miserable with their taunts on message boards during 2002-4. Not many Expos' rooters followed me to Washington. In fact, many would despise me for sticking with the franchise.

The next four years saw me dividing my fandom between the Nationals and the team that I actually grew up with, the Detroit Tigers. The improbable 2006 World Series run by the Tigers did a lot to draw my interest, but my preference for National League baseball (no DH! — the reason I became a fan of a National League team in the first place) also pulled me back towards the ex-Expos. I was tugged in two directions.

In 2009, I made a conscious decision at the start of spring training to refocus on the Nationals, and I started writing this blog to help with that. The title of this blog is, in fact, a Latin pun on 'D.C.'. I paradoxically enjoyed following that losing 2009 team, despite its problems. But there were also annoyances, such as the horrible Rob Dibble & Bob Carpenter television duo, and the fact that Nationals Park clearly referenced not the Nationals' franchise history, but the history of Washington baseball. Now that's great for Washington baseball fans, but it creates problems outside of the District. And, in fact, there has been a constant tension between the Expos' heritage and the marketing problem of building a new fan-base. I've never really been comfortable with the Nationals borrowing the Twins' past, given that there was an Expos' past that the Nationals had every right to. But I also understood that the Expos' past could not speak with much authority to Washington's baseball fans.

2012, right down to Mr Slowes' outstanding home-run call on Jayson Werth's walk-off in Game #4 of the NLDS against the Cardinals, was for me a culmination. Despite being in Canada, not Washington, despite being nurtured into my baseball fandom in Tiger Stadium, not DC Stadium, my elation was just as great as that of anyone's along the Potomac. And the sadness that followed after the Game #5 loss was equally as great. I had followed the construction of that team from 2009 with interest. Those events hurt a bit more than the Tigers' loss to the Giants in the World Series. But when the 2013 season rolled around, something had changed between me and the Nationals. I still don't know what, but I felt a distance that wasn't there before. Was it the free agency of John Lannan? The acquisition of Denard Span? The trade of Michael Morse? Was it the fact that the bitter loss of the 2012 NLDS had cemented their identity as a Washington team, as opposed to a continuing example of the Expos' futile pursuit of post-season glory? Not even Slowes & Jageler could shift a sensation that something was rotten in the state of my Nationals'fandom. The 2014 season simply reinforced these feelings of distance. Instead I invested considerable emotion in the ups and downs of the Tigers, who literally uglied their way into an AL Central pennant.

Then, last Saturday night, there was the 1924 Flag That Will Fly Forever, marking the Washington team's World Series victory that season. Except that flag belongs to the Twins, who took it with them along with the makings of a competitive team when they left in 1960. Now I gather that something like it may have been flying over Nationals Park since it opened in 2008, but on Saturday the prominence given it in the television coverage rankled with me. First Washington baseball fans took someone else's team, and now they are taking another club's history. That's one way to look at it. One could just as easily argue that the Twins left it there when they moved to another city. But neutral arbiters have assigned it to the Twins. It's one of those areas where one's predisposition will determine what side of the argument one will find oneself on.

As the Tigers crashed out of the ALDS in miserable fashion, I came to a conclusion: the Expo in me has to let go of the Nationals. Unless I wind up living in the Chesapeake Bay area in the future, I will focus my baseball team fandom on the Tigers. Tonight will be the last game I watch as a fan of the Nationals. I will still make the post-season blog posts I intend to make about the 2014 Nationals, but they will be the last gestures towards a team that I have followed, in some fashion or another, since 2005. Whether the Nationals do or die, I say ave atque vale to a part of my life that sought to maintain ties to a dead franchise and a memory of past times.

2014 Nationals' Fielding Review #6

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        7.0     +0.6   -1.7
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        5.7     +1.3   -2.0
Span (CF)          -0.4     +1.5    .934    +.016       .923        2.6     +2.9    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.1     -1.1    .788    +.004       .788        5.7     +2.1    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -1.9     +2.4    .800    +.004       .807      - 8.0      ---    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.3     +0.1    .872    +.023       .871      - 5.5     -2.1    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -2.3     +0.3    .803    +.005       .793      -10.8     -0.4    n/a
Werth (RF)         -4.5     -2.9    .933    +.004       .895      - 8.6     -3.5    n/a
Rendon (3B)         0.4     +0.7    .699    -.006       .708        2.4     +1.4    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .905    +.003       .871        0.6     -1.6    n/a
Rendon (2B)         2.0     ---     .857     ---        .788      - 8.0     ---     n/a 
minimum 180 innings

By UZR Denard Span continues to improve, by exactly the same amount as last time. Danny Espinosa gave back all of his UZR improvement from the last review. Span and Anthony Rendon at third are the two players seen as improving both by the traditional statistics of DRA and by the play-by-play analysis of UZR. The only player losing ground under both systems was Jayson Werth. Rendon is now in the list as a secondbaseman as well as a thirdbaseman. Ryan Zimmerman at third just missed the cut.

Overall, both systems see the Nationals as seemingly having to found their level for the season. UZR adds up to a 0.7 increase, which is probably indicative of random variaton. DRA, including catchers, sees an identical improvement. UZR adds up the Nationals' regular fielders to -7.8, or costing the team about three-quarters of a win. DRA sees matters almost twice as bad, with -16.9 runs, or almost two wins. However, one probably ought to double the UZR total to get a better idea of the team's fielding over an entire season.

Wilson Ramos' pitch framing went down las time by 2.5 runs and this time by 1.4 runs. Jose Lobaton also slipped a bit, losing 0.4 runs, giving back some of his improvement last time. So, overall, the Nationals' catchers haven't been able to get the calls during this past two weeks or so.
____
* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

2014 Nationals Hitters' Batted Balls in Review #1

I have been spending more time on the World Cup than on baseball this past month, but during that I decided to start another regular review of batters' hitting, similar to my fielding reviews. Where the fielding reviews try to compare different systems to gain some sort of sense of just how much fielding is contributing to wins and losses, this review is going to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.

Ian  Desmond             42      33    + 9
Adam  LaRoche            49      43    + 6
Danny  Espinosa          22      20    + 2
Zach  Walters             4       3    + 1 
Anthony  Rendon          56      56      0
Ryan  Zimmerman          24      24      0
Bryce  Harper            12      12      0
Wilson  Ramos            19      20    - 1
Tyler  Moore              8       9    - 1
Scott  Hairston           4       5    - 1
Steven  Souza             0       1    - 1
Jayson  Werth            53      55    - 2
Greg  Dobbs               1       3    - 2
Jose  Lobaton            11      14    - 3
Nate  McLouth            11      15    - 4
Sandy  Leon               2       6    - 4 
Kevin  Frandsen          12      20    - 8
Denard  Span             40      58    -18

Poor Denard Span. He has been poorly rewarded for his efforts at the plate. I don't think any other hitter is wildly out of line with his results, but I do note that Danny Espinosa, whose .214/.282/.343 slash line isn't all that impressive to begin with, has been hitting a little bit above expectations.

2014 Nationals Fielding Review #4

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. The last is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. DRA is added to these two, while I have dropped Dewan's Defensive Runs Saved. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        6.6     +0.3   -1.7
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.5     -0.2   -0.6
Span (CF)          -3.4     -2.0    .925    -.004       .923      - 3.9     -0.3    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.1     +0.1    .790    +.011       .784        1.1     -1.2    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -1.4     +0.9    .807    -.065       .812      - 5.8     -4.7    n/a
McLouth (LF)       -0.7     +0.3    .880     ---        .873      - 1.3     -0.5    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.6     +0.1    .875     ---        .873      - 2.9     -0.3    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -3.9     +0.7    .799    +.004       .793      - 8.7     +2.0    n/a
Werth (RF)         -2.3     -1.0    .933    +.001       .900      - 4.0     -3.2    n/a
Rendon (3B)         0.5     +1.5    .713    +.006       .706        0.4     -0.6    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.7      --     .971     ---        .873        2.2      --     n/a
minimum 160 innings

Let's start by looking at where the systems agree. UZR, RZR and DRA all think that Denard Span's fielding declined, with UZR seeing the decline as quite sharp. All three are also of the opinion that Ian Desmond's fielding has improved, with DRA seeing a substantial improvement. All other indicators are mixed, but RZR and DRA think Adam LaRoche's fielding has suffered in the past couple of weeks. DRA and UZR think Jayson Werth's fielding has declined. The interesting thing here is that in the last review DRA thought these same two players improved. I am of the opinion that this might well reflect the influence of Werth's counterparts on other teams pushing the league averages up. LaRoche's sharp RZR decline makes me think the falls in UZR and DRA are more meaningful.

Looking at overall sums, UZR sees a slight improvement of +0.6, which might have been a lot better except for the bad scores from Werth and Span. DRA, by contrast, sees a -8.7-run decline, which is almost an entire win. RZR sees all the regulars performing around league average, with the exceptions of Werth and Ryan Zimmerman. Owing to family issues, I haven't been able to follow the games over this time, so I can't comment about which I think better matches my impressions.

Both catchers saw their pitch-framing runs saved decline by 0.3.
____
* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

Nationals 2014 Game 52 and Tigers 2014 Game 49: illi contigit et tunc mea felis moriut

The Nationals went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position, and Anthony Rendon managed to be at the plate for three of those. More and more I think I want to see him switch with Span and move into to the leadoff position. He walks a bit more than Denard Span, and maybe he'll do a better job of setting the table than coming up with men on. (Not that it makes a lot of difference after the first time through the lineup.) The problem, though, is that Span hits a lot more ground balls than Rendon, and certainly the tenth would have ended more quickly if they had been swapped yesterday, as it seems like Span would have grounded into a double play.

Despite my worries about Jordan Zimmermann, yesterday he put in a fringy quality start, at the limit of the QMAX Success Square despite giving up eight hits. He threw more fastballs, more breaking balls and fewer sliders. His fastballs look like they had a bit more velocity, but at some cost in movement.

Highest Leverage PA:     6.1, McGehee single vs Barrett, Marlins 10th. 
Highest LI Win Value:   -.773 McGehee single vs Barrett, Marlins 10th.
QMAX rating:             (4,3) for Zimmermann (SS).
Bullpen Award:           Barrett, Goat's Head.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.876
McLouth        0.837
Desmond        0.163
Hairston       0.097
Espinosa       0.069
Ramos         -0.010
Zimmermann    -0.022
Moore         -0.032
Dobbs         -0.289
Frandsen      -0.466
LaRoche       -0.496
Werth         -0.511
Rendon        -0.810

vs Mets

vs Marlins

Having met disappointment in DC, I headed across country via the magic of the Internet and was entranced by a eminently watchable pitching duel between Anibal Sanchez and Scott Kazmir in Oakland. Kazmir's amazing 'fall off the table' pitch time and again fooled Tiger batters. Sanchez met him pitch for pitch, working the zone in such a way that gained the umpire's approval but left the Athletics to stalk away shaking their heads with grimaces of disgust. Sanchez was pulled in the ninth after giving up a double and then the ghost of Jose Valverde, disguised as Joe Nathan, took the mound. 'Oimoi', as they used to say in Ancient Greek tragedy.

Highest Leverage PA:     7.5, Donaldson HR vs Nathan, Athletics 9th. 
Highest LI Win Value:   -1.819, Donaldson HR vs Nathan, Athletics 9th.
QMAX rating:             (1,1) for Sanchez (ES).
Bullpen Award:           Nathan, Goat's Head.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Rajai          0.026
V-Mart         0.004
A-Jax         -0.014
Worth         -0.020
JD-Mart       -0.039
Cabrera       -0.038
Castellanos   -0.044
Hunter        -0.047
Avila         -0.085
Kinsler       -0.188

Nationals 2014 Game 46: Vibravit, Praeterivit

Highest Leverage PA:     4.1, PA#65, Ramos K vs Broxton, Nationals' 8th.
Greatest LI Win Value:   -.145, PA#16, Roark GDP vs Simon, Nationals' 2nd.
QMAX rating:             (4,4) for Roark (Uncategorised).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.181
McLouth        0.056
Dobbs         -0.047
Moore         -0.059
Roark         -0.103
Desmond       -0.104
Frandsen      -0.111
Werth         -0.157
Espinosa      -0.158
Ramos         -0.185

Denard Span's home run filled one with hope, but this was an example of the kind of game the Nationals really need to win on a regular basis if there is to be any hope of post-season baseball for Washington. Tanner Roark's GDP in the 2nd inning signified the true course the contest would take. After the Reds took the lead in the fourth inning, the Nationals went 0 for 3 with runners in scoring position. Nationals' hitters also struck out five times in the ensuing five innings before Aroldis Chapman came in, which works out as a 9 K/9 for a pitcher. That's as if the Nationals were facing 2013's Cliff Lee. But, in fact, they faced Alfredo Simon (5.6 K/9 in 2014 so far) and Jonathan Broxton (6.8 K/9). The Nationals certainly flattered those two last night.

Nationals 2014 Game 45: Quinque Palmi

Highest Leverage PA:     3.2, PA#42, Heisey 5-3g.o. vs Fister, Reds' 6th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .101, PA#23, e5 allowing Fister to score, Nationals' 3rd.
QMAX rating:             (3,2) for Fister (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.171
Fister         0.023
Moore          0.004
Werth          0.002
Walters        0.000
Frandsen      -0.008
Espinosa      -0.012
Rendon        -0.013
Lobaton       -0.038
Desmond       -0.069

Doug Fister's third start of 2014 was not quite as good as his second start, but still significantly better than his first start, moreso in hit prevention than in command. Denard Span's five-hit game led the Nationals' hitting, which is greatly reflected in the LI Win Values. One is entitled to wonder why the overall values are quite so low after scoring nine runs. Early big leads hurt leverage badly.

As my two GIFs show, Fister's 2014 pattern still does not quite match his 2013 one. He's still not getting the ball down quite as much. Is it intentional?

2013 Doug Fister

2014 Doug Fister

Nationals 2014 Game 32: surge in primis

Highest Leverage PA:     2, PA#14, Olivo K vs Zimmermann, Dodgers 2nd.
                         2, PA#50, Ethier ground out vs Storen, Dodgers 7th.   
Highest LI Win Value:    .135, PA#6, Rendon homer vs Greinke, Nationals 1st.
QMAX rating:             (5,3) for Zimmermann (Uncategorised).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.121
Rendon         0.039
Hairston       0.025
Zimmermann     0.013
LaRoche        0.004
Moore          0.000
Espinosa      -0.001
Frandsen      -0.003
Leon          -0.004
Walters       -0.019
Werth         -0.029
McLouth       -0.050
Desmond       -0.078

'The Red Badge of Natitude' was awarded by F P Santangelo to the small number of fans (even the Dodger ones who congregated together) who were able to remain in the ballpark through a three-hour rain delay. This game was never really in doubt from the Nationals' point of view, and really does not offer the players much in the way of rewards, but nor in terms of demerits.

I have to wonder if Anthony Rendon and Denard Span should swap places in the lineup. Span's OBP is a humbling (for a leadoff hitter) .304, and Rendon's .331 might serve the team better in the leadoff spot. Span also has struck out in about 12 per cent of his plate appearances, whereas Rendon is at over 16 per cent. The tradition #2 hitter is a bat-control chap, and Span fits that a bit better. Of course, the sabermetric solution would probably be to put Rendon or Jayson Werth in the second spot, so maybe I should not complain.

2014 Game 3: All Hail The Z-Man!

Highest Leverage PA:     2.6, PA#56 LaRoche single vs Familia, Nationals 7th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .111, PA #12, Zimmerman HR vs Wheeler, Nationals 2nd.
QMAX rating:             (4,4) for Roark (Uncategorised).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Zimmerman      0.220
Span           0.168
Werth          0.074
Espinosa       0.070
LaRoche        0.055
Rendon         0.042
Hairston       0.042
Frandsen      -0.003
Leon          -0.023
Roark         -0.058
Harper        -0.074
Desmond       -0.277

Zimmerman was the Star, Span continued on a tear, and the game was basically won by the hitters. Roark did not do badly, but his QMAX rating demonstrates a rather nondescript performance, which is still to be applauded.

(I had to return to my mother's abode in order to help her through some treatments, and in doing so had to clear a ton of work before I left. So I fell behind. I shall catch up as best I can, but I probably won't be current for a couple of days and may have to leave a gap in coverage.)

2014 Game 1: Denard of Menthon?

My intentions to write a few posts during the Spring Training season were undone when my mother developed a grave illness. Posting may be erratic this season, as usual.

Highest Leverage PA:     5.5, PA#69 Span 2B vs Parnell, Nationals 9th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .363, PA #69, Span 2B vs Parnell, Nationals 9th.
QMAX rating:             (3,3) for Strasburg (Success Square zone).
Bullpen Award:           Goat's Head for Tyler Clippard.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.431
Rendon         0.205
McLouth        0.109
Lobaton        0.106
Espinosa       0.081
LaRoche        0.057
Desmond        0.013
Werth         -0.004
Strasburg     -0.024
Harper        -0.043
Ramos         -0.087
Zimmerman     -0.277

Not only did Denard Span have the highest-leveraged plate appearance of the game, he also had the second-highest, in the 7th against Rice. He delivered both times. Denard rescued a floundering Nationals' effort. Let's toast him with a cask of brandy!

Despite a difficult start, Stephen Strasburg still managed to keep his appearance in the QMAX Success Square, just. So he did his job.

Matt Williams showed great confidence in rookie hurler Aaron Barrett, who entered the game with the highest leverage at stake of any of the relief pitchers the Nationals used. However, he was facing some of the weaker hitters in the Mets' lineup at that point, so the risks were lower than they might have been.

(My title alludes to the patron of a certain breed of rescue dogs.)