Washington Nationals Fielding in Review 2014

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers, one that closes the book on the 2014 Nationals fielding as monitored on this blog. ('Last time' was a l-o-o-o-n-n-g time ago, the end of July.) My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        8.8     +1.8    0.2
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.8     -2.9   -2.6
Span (CF)          -4.7     -4.3    .924    -.010       .919        8.2     +3.6    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       2.3     +2.2    .784    -.004       .787        5.0     -0.7    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -5.0     -3.1    .793    -.007       .796      -13.2     -5.2    n/a
Harper (LF)         1.5     +2.8    .886    +.014       .881        1.1     +6.6    n/a
Desmond (SS)        0.1     +2.4    .822    +.019       .799      -10.3     +0.5    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.6     +2.9    .931    -.002       .906      -10.0     -1.4    n/a
Rendon (3B)         4.2     +3.8    .683    -.016       .709        4.2     +1.8    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .907    +.002       .881      - 3.0     -3.6    n/a
A. Cabrera (2B)    -2.2     ---     .758     ---        .787      - 1.5     ---     n/a 
minimum 220 innings

I have been tracking fielding in this manner for a few years now, and my only solid conclusion is that by and large outfielders tend to find their RZR level for the season quite quickly, while infielders can be more mercurial. A metric like UZR, by contrast, swings quite wildly over the course of the season at all positions. This is the fundamental problem with metrics that apply a relative standard, which is the approach adopted the most widely accepted fielding metrics. This is to say that most fielding metrics measure a player's performance against an average for the position throughout the league. I find this deeply unsatisfactory. I have been thinking about this problem, and have a solution that I'd like to test; but I make no promises about posting it here at any time.

Moving on to the actual metrics, the most important thing for Nationals fans to note, I think, is just how much Bryce Harper improved as a left-fielder over the course of the season. Nonetheless, he is not much more than an average fielder overall. The defensive star for the Nationals seems to be Anthony Rendon, if one believes UZR, but RZR paints a very different picture. What is strange is that UZR gives him a high range value. One can only throw up one's hands in despair at such a divergent picture. DRA likes Denard Span best, but UZR seems to think he was one of the worse fielders. RZR suggests he was about average. Again, we see a slight divergence between RZR and UZR on Span's ability to range the outfield. Well, at least we can all agree that Adam LaRoche was a bit of a defensive liability, surely. Nope — though UZR and DRA see him as the worst regular on the team, RZR thinks his range was a little bit below league average.

The only person on whom the different metrics reach a consensus is Asdrubal Cabrera, who was got for his bat. Just as well, too. He is seen as a subpar with the glove.

Let me conclude with a note about Jose Lobaton. He was picked up to provide some defensive help, and to be honest he did exactly that. DRA likes his fielding, and his pitch-framing, which last time I checked was -1.7, rose into positive territory. A good acquisition, Mr Rizzo!

2014 Nationals' Fielding Review #6

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        7.0     +0.6   -1.7
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        5.7     +1.3   -2.0
Span (CF)          -0.4     +1.5    .934    +.016       .923        2.6     +2.9    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.1     -1.1    .788    +.004       .788        5.7     +2.1    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -1.9     +2.4    .800    +.004       .807      - 8.0      ---    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.3     +0.1    .872    +.023       .871      - 5.5     -2.1    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -2.3     +0.3    .803    +.005       .793      -10.8     -0.4    n/a
Werth (RF)         -4.5     -2.9    .933    +.004       .895      - 8.6     -3.5    n/a
Rendon (3B)         0.4     +0.7    .699    -.006       .708        2.4     +1.4    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .905    +.003       .871        0.6     -1.6    n/a
Rendon (2B)         2.0     ---     .857     ---        .788      - 8.0     ---     n/a 
minimum 180 innings

By UZR Denard Span continues to improve, by exactly the same amount as last time. Danny Espinosa gave back all of his UZR improvement from the last review. Span and Anthony Rendon at third are the two players seen as improving both by the traditional statistics of DRA and by the play-by-play analysis of UZR. The only player losing ground under both systems was Jayson Werth. Rendon is now in the list as a secondbaseman as well as a thirdbaseman. Ryan Zimmerman at third just missed the cut.

Overall, both systems see the Nationals as seemingly having to found their level for the season. UZR adds up to a 0.7 increase, which is probably indicative of random variaton. DRA, including catchers, sees an identical improvement. UZR adds up the Nationals' regular fielders to -7.8, or costing the team about three-quarters of a win. DRA sees matters almost twice as bad, with -16.9 runs, or almost two wins. However, one probably ought to double the UZR total to get a better idea of the team's fielding over an entire season.

Wilson Ramos' pitch framing went down las time by 2.5 runs and this time by 1.4 runs. Jose Lobaton also slipped a bit, losing 0.4 runs, giving back some of his improvement last time. So, overall, the Nationals' catchers haven't been able to get the calls during this past two weeks or so.
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* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

2014 Nationals Fielding Review #3

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. The last is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. DRA is added to these two, while I have dropped Dewan's Defensive Runs Saved. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    MLBaverage     DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        6.3     +0.2   -1.2
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.7     --     -0.3
Span (CF)          -1.4     +1.2    .929    -.003       .914      - 3.6     +0.4    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.0     +0.3    .779    +.013       .789        2.3     -2.2    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -2.3     -2.1    .868    +.022       .812      - 1.1     +2.9    n/a
McLouth (LF)       -1.0      --     .880     ---        .872      - 0.8     --      n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.7     -0.2    .875     ---        .872      - 2.6     +0.8    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -4.6     -0.1    .795    +.033       .775      -10.7     +0.8    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.3     -3.5    .932    -.023       .895      - 0.8     +2.0    n/a
Rendon (3B)        -1.2     +2.8    .707    +.009       .709        1.0     +1.5    n/a
minimum 130 innings

The abysmal Nationals' fielding of the early season now seems to have done a little bit of 'regression to the mean, no matter what particular statistic one looks at. We see some extreme results, with DRA, the method using traditional fielding statistics, seeing improvement from Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth, while UZR takes a remarkably opposed view. RZR splits the difference, with one up and one down. Interestingly, RZR now sees Ian Desmond as an above-average shortstop, while DRA and RZR think he is improved but still the worst regular on the team. Anthony Rendon has improved quite dramatically with more time at third base.

If one sums the UZR changes, the Nationals' regulars have deteriorated by about -1.6 runs, and locates the problem on the right side of the field, with Werth and LaRoche dampening the improvement elsewhere. DRA sees a 6.1-run improvement, which is half a win. The Nationals are winning more, too. Once again, my own impression aligns more with DRA.

As a side note, the pitch-framing data for the catchers shows some improvement for Lobaton, who scored -2.1 last time.
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* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

Nationals 2014 Game 52 and Tigers 2014 Game 49: illi contigit et tunc mea felis moriut

The Nationals went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position, and Anthony Rendon managed to be at the plate for three of those. More and more I think I want to see him switch with Span and move into to the leadoff position. He walks a bit more than Denard Span, and maybe he'll do a better job of setting the table than coming up with men on. (Not that it makes a lot of difference after the first time through the lineup.) The problem, though, is that Span hits a lot more ground balls than Rendon, and certainly the tenth would have ended more quickly if they had been swapped yesterday, as it seems like Span would have grounded into a double play.

Despite my worries about Jordan Zimmermann, yesterday he put in a fringy quality start, at the limit of the QMAX Success Square despite giving up eight hits. He threw more fastballs, more breaking balls and fewer sliders. His fastballs look like they had a bit more velocity, but at some cost in movement.

Highest Leverage PA:     6.1, McGehee single vs Barrett, Marlins 10th. 
Highest LI Win Value:   -.773 McGehee single vs Barrett, Marlins 10th.
QMAX rating:             (4,3) for Zimmermann (SS).
Bullpen Award:           Barrett, Goat's Head.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.876
McLouth        0.837
Desmond        0.163
Hairston       0.097
Espinosa       0.069
Ramos         -0.010
Zimmermann    -0.022
Moore         -0.032
Dobbs         -0.289
Frandsen      -0.466
LaRoche       -0.496
Werth         -0.511
Rendon        -0.810

vs Mets

vs Marlins

Having met disappointment in DC, I headed across country via the magic of the Internet and was entranced by a eminently watchable pitching duel between Anibal Sanchez and Scott Kazmir in Oakland. Kazmir's amazing 'fall off the table' pitch time and again fooled Tiger batters. Sanchez met him pitch for pitch, working the zone in such a way that gained the umpire's approval but left the Athletics to stalk away shaking their heads with grimaces of disgust. Sanchez was pulled in the ninth after giving up a double and then the ghost of Jose Valverde, disguised as Joe Nathan, took the mound. 'Oimoi', as they used to say in Ancient Greek tragedy.

Highest Leverage PA:     7.5, Donaldson HR vs Nathan, Athletics 9th. 
Highest LI Win Value:   -1.819, Donaldson HR vs Nathan, Athletics 9th.
QMAX rating:             (1,1) for Sanchez (ES).
Bullpen Award:           Nathan, Goat's Head.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Rajai          0.026
V-Mart         0.004
A-Jax         -0.014
Worth         -0.020
JD-Mart       -0.039
Cabrera       -0.038
Castellanos   -0.044
Hunter        -0.047
Avila         -0.085
Kinsler       -0.188

Nationals 2014 Game 04: Painful Loss

Highest Leverage PA:     5.1, PA#64, Zimmmerman K vs Carpenter, Nationals' 8th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .148, PA#31, Gattis HR vs Zimmermann, Braves' 5th.
QMAX rating:             (3,3) for Zimmermann (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           Goat's Head for Clippard.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Werth          0.150
Rendon         0.146
Zimmermann    -0.026
Lobaton       -0.041
McLouth       -0.047
Frandsen      -0.049
Espinosa      -0.055
Zimmerman     -0.063
Desmond       -0.113
Span          -0.130
LaRoche       -0.215
Harper        -0.221

The data from this game of 3rd April was not yet recorded in the sidebar, so I have finally got round to processing it. The Braves beat the Nationals 2-1, at Nationals' Park. As the LI Win Values data above shows, the defeat owed a lot to a failure to drive in baserunners. When one sees high plus and negative values at the extremes, that marks out baserunners who don't score. Adam LaRoche's numbers were badly damaged when he was thrown out at home in the fourth.

Tracking the Aggregate LI Win Value showed the Nationals with a narrow edge until the eighth inning, when the Braves' Carpenter allowed Anthony Rendon to single and walked Jayson Werth. The next three Nationals' batters, however, struck out. The Aggregate LI Win Value only finally drifted into negative territory then.

A tense game that was a joy to follow, even if it ended in heartbreak.

2014 Nationals' Fielding Review #1

With a month of the season completed, it is time to start reviewing the fielding data periodically. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me. I've used John Dewan's Defensive Runs Saved, Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. The last is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. I'll do something about pitch-framing runs saved another time, perhaps.

Player              DRS   Change  UZR      Change  RZR   Change   MLBaverage   DRA
Lobaton (C)         -1    --       n/a      --     n/a     ---         n/a      5.9
Span (CF)            1    --      -0.4      --    .922     ---        .912     -2.9  
Espinosa (2B)       -3    --      -1.0      --    .757     ---        .785      4.4
LaRoche (1B)         0    --      -0.2      --    .846     ---        .814     -3.2
Harper (LF)          1    --      -1.8      --    .875     ---        .865     -2.9
Desmond (SS)        -4    --      -4.6      --    .740     ---        .768     -8.7
Werth (RF)          -7    --      -1.9      --    .959     ---        .886     -1.2
Rendon (3B)         -3    --      -5.0      --    .642     ---        .721     -2.4
minimum 120 innings

I was a bit shocked that Ryan Zimmerman was absent even with a 70-inning minimum. Has he really been gone that long?

What the RZR data highlights is how poor the Nationals' infield defence is, relative to the rest of the league. Anthony Rendon in particular is hurting the Nationals' at third base. Jayson Werth doesn't look so bad in RZR, but his DRS number is a bit disturbing.

UPDATE: I have added the one-year numbers of Michael Humphrey's Defensive Regression Analysis system, available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com, Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

Nationals 2014 Game 32: surge in primis

Highest Leverage PA:     2, PA#14, Olivo K vs Zimmermann, Dodgers 2nd.
                         2, PA#50, Ethier ground out vs Storen, Dodgers 7th.   
Highest LI Win Value:    .135, PA#6, Rendon homer vs Greinke, Nationals 1st.
QMAX rating:             (5,3) for Zimmermann (Uncategorised).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Span           0.121
Rendon         0.039
Hairston       0.025
Zimmermann     0.013
LaRoche        0.004
Moore          0.000
Espinosa      -0.001
Frandsen      -0.003
Leon          -0.004
Walters       -0.019
Werth         -0.029
McLouth       -0.050
Desmond       -0.078

'The Red Badge of Natitude' was awarded by F P Santangelo to the small number of fans (even the Dodger ones who congregated together) who were able to remain in the ballpark through a three-hour rain delay. This game was never really in doubt from the Nationals' point of view, and really does not offer the players much in the way of rewards, but nor in terms of demerits.

I have to wonder if Anthony Rendon and Denard Span should swap places in the lineup. Span's OBP is a humbling (for a leadoff hitter) .304, and Rendon's .331 might serve the team better in the leadoff spot. Span also has struck out in about 12 per cent of his plate appearances, whereas Rendon is at over 16 per cent. The tradition #2 hitter is a bat-control chap, and Span fits that a bit better. Of course, the sabermetric solution would probably be to put Rendon or Jayson Werth in the second spot, so maybe I should not complain.