2014 Nationals' Fielding Review #6

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        7.0     +0.6   -1.7
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        5.7     +1.3   -2.0
Span (CF)          -0.4     +1.5    .934    +.016       .923        2.6     +2.9    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.1     -1.1    .788    +.004       .788        5.7     +2.1    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -1.9     +2.4    .800    +.004       .807      - 8.0      ---    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.3     +0.1    .872    +.023       .871      - 5.5     -2.1    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -2.3     +0.3    .803    +.005       .793      -10.8     -0.4    n/a
Werth (RF)         -4.5     -2.9    .933    +.004       .895      - 8.6     -3.5    n/a
Rendon (3B)         0.4     +0.7    .699    -.006       .708        2.4     +1.4    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .905    +.003       .871        0.6     -1.6    n/a
Rendon (2B)         2.0     ---     .857     ---        .788      - 8.0     ---     n/a 
minimum 180 innings

By UZR Denard Span continues to improve, by exactly the same amount as last time. Danny Espinosa gave back all of his UZR improvement from the last review. Span and Anthony Rendon at third are the two players seen as improving both by the traditional statistics of DRA and by the play-by-play analysis of UZR. The only player losing ground under both systems was Jayson Werth. Rendon is now in the list as a secondbaseman as well as a thirdbaseman. Ryan Zimmerman at third just missed the cut.

Overall, both systems see the Nationals as seemingly having to found their level for the season. UZR adds up to a 0.7 increase, which is probably indicative of random variaton. DRA, including catchers, sees an identical improvement. UZR adds up the Nationals' regular fielders to -7.8, or costing the team about three-quarters of a win. DRA sees matters almost twice as bad, with -16.9 runs, or almost two wins. However, one probably ought to double the UZR total to get a better idea of the team's fielding over an entire season.

Wilson Ramos' pitch framing went down las time by 2.5 runs and this time by 1.4 runs. Jose Lobaton also slipped a bit, losing 0.4 runs, giving back some of his improvement last time. So, overall, the Nationals' catchers haven't been able to get the calls during this past two weeks or so.
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* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.

2012 Game 33

Highest Leverage PA:     3.9, PA #39, Harper 4-6 force vs Latos, Nats' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value:    .160, PA #33, Ramos HR vs Latos, Nationals' 5th.
                         .160, PA #45, Espinosa HR vs Arredondo, Nats' 6th.
Lowest Opp. Clutch Val:  -.120, PA #50, Phillips L6-3 DP vs Zimmermann, Reds' 6th
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,2) for Zimmermann.
Bullpen Award:               Hero's Palm for Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Espinosa       0.277
Ramos          0.158
LaRoche        0.052
Desmond        0.031
Zimmermann     0.006
Moore         -0.016
Bernadina     -0.047
Zimmerman     -0.108
Ankiel        -0.193
Harper        -0.196

Wilson Ramos' torn ACL marred one of those tense, splendid games that are a joy for fans but probably a bit stressful for the players. Ramos hasn't received a whole lot of notice in the Season of Bryce, but he was putting together a useful season as a key contributor with the bat in clutch situations. The Nationals may well miss him more than the few weeks of Jayson Werth or Michael Morse. Contending teams always feature a couple of chaps like Ramos having career years from the lower reaches of the lineup. At least he went out on a high note with that homer. As far as the game went, on the manager's show the next day Davey Johnson commented on Bryce Harper's current troubles with the bat by highlighting exactly that 4-6 force out singled out as the most leveraged plate appearance of the game. No consolation to Harper that if he was going to be got out in spectacular fashion, it had to be at such a highly-leveraged moment.

CORRECTION
A careless copying error led to Clippard getting a Hero's Palm that should have gone to Henry Rodriguez. The Bullpen Awards table has been modified.
— 17 May 2012

Leveraged Win Values for Batters

The sidebar on the left now includes the aggregate Leveraged Win Values of each batter, including all games between 21st April and 8th May. I shall be adding subsequent games and updating the list regularly. It ought to be pointed out that Adam LaRoche's position at the top of the list was not affected by his home run in the 9th inning in the game of 8th May. He only about doubled his total for the season during the period!

The numbers basically capture what percentage of a win each batter has contributed given what he did in a plate appearance in the particular context of the game at that exact moment. I've taken to calling it 'clutch' in the short summaries heading my individual game comments. Thus, LaRoche's accumulated plate appearances during the period covered were worth an entire win, and then some, in themselves.

The most glaring matter requiring comment is Danny Espinosa's situation. Espinosa is clearly well adrift of the impact of most regulars. I confess to not understanding Davey Johnson's persistence in putting him any higher than seventh in the lineup. If it's a case of not having too many left-handed hitters in succession, placing Wilson Ramos behind Chad Tracy (where Espinosa batted on Tuesday night) seems to make far more sense, based on these numbers.

I'd also just like to note that Tracy has been a pleasant surprise so far.

2012 Game 26 NATITUDE Series

A busy weekend got in the way of my being able to blog. By the time the Nationals play again, de civitate sabermetricarum will be caught up PLUS with the long-promised batting rankings in place.

Highest Leverage PA:         6.4, PA #91, Ramos 1B vs Schwimmer, Nationals' 11th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .357, PA #66, Flores 2B vs Qualls, Nationals' 8th.
Lowest Clutch Value:        -.096, PA #73, Galvez F7 vs Rodriguez, Phillies 9th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (2,3) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Ramos          0.333
Flores         0.236
Tracy          0.230
Ankiel         0.164
Bernadina      0.058
Nady           0.030
Harper         0.028
Strasburg     -0.016
Espinosa      -0.032
Lombardozzi   -0.044
Moore         -0.060
Werth         -0.172
Desmond       -0.354

ALL HAIL PINCH HITTERS! They earned a .421 Leveraged Win Value (a/k/a 'clutch hitting') for the Nationals in this game, with Ramos, Bernadina and Nady all contributing. A team only needs a .500 value to win a game, at least on paper, so the pinch hitters basically did it all themselves. It may come as a surprise that Flores' double in the sixth out-clutched Bernadina's game-winning blow in the 11th, but it goes back to what I was saying about how when the home team ties the game in late innings, it puts home-field advantage into play. The bullpen also played an important role, but no individual stood out. Poor Ian Desmond's recent surge was unceremoniously halted in a long game. Those fielder's choices in the 6th and 8th really hurt