2012 Game 28 NATITUDE series

Work took longer than I anticipated, so the batting ratings will now be published tomorrow, including the results of tonight's stunning game.

Highest Leverage PA:         2.2, PA #19, Rollins 3g vs Zimmermann, Phils' 3rd.
                             2.2, PA #20, Pierre 43g vs Zimmermann, Phils' 3rd.
Highest Clutch Value:        .221, PA #26, Pence HR vs Zimmermann, Phils' 4th.
Lowest Opp Clutch Value:    -.074, PA #37, Victorino 463gdp vs Zimmermann, 5th.
QMAX rating:                 (4,4) for Zimmermann.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Harper         0.117
Bernadina      0.040
Desmond       -0.001
Moore         -0.019
Werth         -0.020
Tracy         -0.036
Ramos         -0.042
Zimmermann    -0.042
Espinosa      -0.068
Nady          -0.076
Ankiel        -0.086
Lombardozzi   -0.122

I thought long and hard about awarding a Hero's Palm to Craig Stammen. He did yeoman's work in the 7th, coming in with the bases loaded and getting the team out of the jam. However, the palms are only awarded in victories. Otherwise, this was a thoroughly unremarkable game for the most part, even with Ryan Perry's implosion in the 9th. It came too late to do any real damage, although those two runs in the bottom of the inning would have been considerably more valuable if there had been no implosion.

2012 Game 27 NATITUDE Series

Highest Leverage PA:         2.6, PA #41, Harper F7 vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
                             2.6, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .320, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Lowest Opp Clutch Value:    -.047, PA #7, Galvis F6 vs Gonzalez, Phillies 2nd.
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,2) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Werth          0.245
Lombardozzi    0.189
Ankiel         0.161
Tracy          0.058
Gonzalez       0.056
Desmond       -0.031
Espinosa      -0.054
Ramos         -0.099
Harper        -0.129

Here's a game where the usefulness of the Leverage Index in assigning value is readily apparent. Jayson Werth's 5th inning home run boosted the Nationals' chances of winning by 64 per cent. Ian Desmond's and Chad Tracy's homers only by 5 per cent each. The difference is context. Werth's fence-clearer came with the Nationals down by a run in the 5th. The Nationals were up by three in the bottom of the 6th when Desmond's blast occurred. Tracy's came with the Nationals up by four in the 7th. Basically, leverage tells us that a home team with a three-run lead after six innings, is very likely to win the game already. There just aren't enough PAs left for the visitors to get the two or three rallies they need to make up the difference.

2012 Game 26 NATITUDE Series

A busy weekend got in the way of my being able to blog. By the time the Nationals play again, de civitate sabermetricarum will be caught up PLUS with the long-promised batting rankings in place.

Highest Leverage PA:         6.4, PA #91, Ramos 1B vs Schwimmer, Nationals' 11th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .357, PA #66, Flores 2B vs Qualls, Nationals' 8th.
Lowest Clutch Value:        -.096, PA #73, Galvez F7 vs Rodriguez, Phillies 9th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (2,3) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Ramos          0.333
Flores         0.236
Tracy          0.230
Ankiel         0.164
Bernadina      0.058
Nady           0.030
Harper         0.028
Strasburg     -0.016
Espinosa      -0.032
Lombardozzi   -0.044
Moore         -0.060
Werth         -0.172
Desmond       -0.354

ALL HAIL PINCH HITTERS! They earned a .421 Leveraged Win Value (a/k/a 'clutch hitting') for the Nationals in this game, with Ramos, Bernadina and Nady all contributing. A team only needs a .500 value to win a game, at least on paper, so the pinch hitters basically did it all themselves. It may come as a surprise that Flores' double in the sixth out-clutched Bernadina's game-winning blow in the 11th, but it goes back to what I was saying about how when the home team ties the game in late innings, it puts home-field advantage into play. The bullpen also played an important role, but no individual stood out. Poor Ian Desmond's recent surge was unceremoniously halted in a long game. Those fielder's choices in the 6th and 8th really hurt