2012 Game 33

Highest Leverage PA:     3.9, PA #39, Harper 4-6 force vs Latos, Nats' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value:    .160, PA #33, Ramos HR vs Latos, Nationals' 5th.
                         .160, PA #45, Espinosa HR vs Arredondo, Nats' 6th.
Lowest Opp. Clutch Val:  -.120, PA #50, Phillips L6-3 DP vs Zimmermann, Reds' 6th
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,2) for Zimmermann.
Bullpen Award:               Hero's Palm for Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Espinosa       0.277
Ramos          0.158
LaRoche        0.052
Desmond        0.031
Zimmermann     0.006
Moore         -0.016
Bernadina     -0.047
Zimmerman     -0.108
Ankiel        -0.193
Harper        -0.196

Wilson Ramos' torn ACL marred one of those tense, splendid games that are a joy for fans but probably a bit stressful for the players. Ramos hasn't received a whole lot of notice in the Season of Bryce, but he was putting together a useful season as a key contributor with the bat in clutch situations. The Nationals may well miss him more than the few weeks of Jayson Werth or Michael Morse. Contending teams always feature a couple of chaps like Ramos having career years from the lower reaches of the lineup. At least he went out on a high note with that homer. As far as the game went, on the manager's show the next day Davey Johnson commented on Bryce Harper's current troubles with the bat by highlighting exactly that 4-6 force out singled out as the most leveraged plate appearance of the game. No consolation to Harper that if he was going to be got out in spectacular fashion, it had to be at such a highly-leveraged moment.

CORRECTION
A careless copying error led to Clippard getting a Hero's Palm that should have gone to Henry Rodriguez. The Bullpen Awards table has been modified.
— 17 May 2012

Leveraged Win Values for Batters

The sidebar on the left now includes the aggregate Leveraged Win Values of each batter, including all games between 21st April and 8th May. I shall be adding subsequent games and updating the list regularly. It ought to be pointed out that Adam LaRoche's position at the top of the list was not affected by his home run in the 9th inning in the game of 8th May. He only about doubled his total for the season during the period!

The numbers basically capture what percentage of a win each batter has contributed given what he did in a plate appearance in the particular context of the game at that exact moment. I've taken to calling it 'clutch' in the short summaries heading my individual game comments. Thus, LaRoche's accumulated plate appearances during the period covered were worth an entire win, and then some, in themselves.

The most glaring matter requiring comment is Danny Espinosa's situation. Espinosa is clearly well adrift of the impact of most regulars. I confess to not understanding Davey Johnson's persistence in putting him any higher than seventh in the lineup. If it's a case of not having too many left-handed hitters in succession, placing Wilson Ramos behind Chad Tracy (where Espinosa batted on Tuesday night) seems to make far more sense, based on these numbers.

I'd also just like to note that Tracy has been a pleasant surprise so far.

2012 Game 22

Highest Leverage PA:         3.3, PA #46, Loney 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .172, PA #46, Londy 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th.
Highest Nats' Clutch Value:  .073, PA #21, Desmond 2B vs Capuano, Nationals' 4th.
QMAX rating:                 Power Precipice (2,5) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

LaRoche        0.032
Moore          0.026
Harper        -0.007
Desmond       -0.014
Lombardozzi   -0.024
Ankiel        -0.041
Gonzalez      -0.043
Tracy         -0.059
Espinosa      -0.068
Flores        -0.170
Nady          -0.190

So the Nationals finished a six-game western road trip going 2-4. We have got a better measure of the team after this, as we can see that the problem is that they do not have enough offense to carry a playoff-calibre pitching staff into the post-season. It could be a team-wide slump, but for this particular game I question Davey Johnson's lineup. migraine led to Jayson Werth being a late scratch, which is the sort of thing that can't be helped, but Danny Espinosa is not the player I would have put in his place at #3. I would have gone with either "Country" (as opposed to "Mary") Tyler Moore or Bryce Harper, and probably Moore. The fact is, though Gio Gonzalez fell off the Power Precipice in the sixth, he still pitched well enough for a win, if he had the hitters to back him up.