Leveraged Win Values for Batters

The sidebar on the left now includes the aggregate Leveraged Win Values of each batter, including all games between 21st April and 8th May. I shall be adding subsequent games and updating the list regularly. It ought to be pointed out that Adam LaRoche's position at the top of the list was not affected by his home run in the 9th inning in the game of 8th May. He only about doubled his total for the season during the period!

The numbers basically capture what percentage of a win each batter has contributed given what he did in a plate appearance in the particular context of the game at that exact moment. I've taken to calling it 'clutch' in the short summaries heading my individual game comments. Thus, LaRoche's accumulated plate appearances during the period covered were worth an entire win, and then some, in themselves.

The most glaring matter requiring comment is Danny Espinosa's situation. Espinosa is clearly well adrift of the impact of most regulars. I confess to not understanding Davey Johnson's persistence in putting him any higher than seventh in the lineup. If it's a case of not having too many left-handed hitters in succession, placing Wilson Ramos behind Chad Tracy (where Espinosa batted on Tuesday night) seems to make far more sense, based on these numbers.

I'd also just like to note that Tracy has been a pleasant surprise so far.

2012 Game 27 NATITUDE Series

Highest Leverage PA:         2.6, PA #41, Harper F7 vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
                             2.6, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .320, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Lowest Opp Clutch Value:    -.047, PA #7, Galvis F6 vs Gonzalez, Phillies 2nd.
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,2) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Werth          0.245
Lombardozzi    0.189
Ankiel         0.161
Tracy          0.058
Gonzalez       0.056
Desmond       -0.031
Espinosa      -0.054
Ramos         -0.099
Harper        -0.129

Here's a game where the usefulness of the Leverage Index in assigning value is readily apparent. Jayson Werth's 5th inning home run boosted the Nationals' chances of winning by 64 per cent. Ian Desmond's and Chad Tracy's homers only by 5 per cent each. The difference is context. Werth's fence-clearer came with the Nationals down by a run in the 5th. The Nationals were up by three in the bottom of the 6th when Desmond's blast occurred. Tracy's came with the Nationals up by four in the 7th. Basically, leverage tells us that a home team with a three-run lead after six innings, is very likely to win the game already. There just aren't enough PAs left for the visitors to get the two or three rallies they need to make up the difference.

2012 Game 17 Notes

Highest Leverage PA:          4.3 PA #56, Denorfia vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
Highest Leveraged Win Value:  .187, PA #54, Perino vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
Highest Lev Win Val for Nats: .130, PA #49, Tracy vs Richard, Nationals' 7th.
Lowest Lev Win Val for Nats:  -.121, PA #3, DeRosa vs Richard, Nationals' 1st.
QMAX rating:                  Success Square (1,3) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:                Hero's Palm to Clippard, for gaining .142 on Win
                              Probability

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Tracy          0.130
Ankiel         0.055
Nady           0.047
Ramos          0.022
Werth         -0.015
Bernadina     -0.026
Desmond       -0.033
Espinosa      -0.042
LaRoche       -0.05
Lombardozzi   -0.068
Gonzalez      -0.081
DeRosa        -0.141

Mark DeRosa's grounding into a double play in the top of first set the tone for this pitcher's duel. The crucial inning on both sides was the seventh, and for both teams the outcome of the game may have turned on bullpen usage. Bud Black may have been too slow in pulling Clayton Richard, while Davey Johnson wasted no time in taking Craig Stammen out when things turned a bit bad for him.