Friday, 27 April 2012

2012 Game 19 Notes

Highest Leverage PA:         5.9, PA #57, Hundley's K vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
                             (Also, Lowest Leveraged Win Value at -.159)
Highest Leveraged Win Value: .337, PA #64, Kotsay's 2B vs Clippard, Padres' 8th.
Nationals' Highest Lev Win:  .148, PA #49, Werth's HR vs Volquez, Nationals' 7th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (3,4) for Jackson.
Bullpen Award:               Goat's Horns for Clippard.
Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche        0.048
Werth          0.030
Ramos          0.027
Bernadina     -0.018
Jackson       -0.055
Ankiel        -0.064
Nady          -0.064
Desmond       -0.104
Tracy         -0.109
Espinosa      -0.147
It is easy to point the finger at poor Tyler Clippard, who saved the day in the 7th inning, for blowing the game in the 8th. But, seriously, as the Batting Leveraged Win Values show, my Finger of Blame for yesterday's loss points squarely at the Nationals' hitters. The top of the order in particular—Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa and Chad Tracy—had a very poor game, as the numbers show. The bullpen's job is to hold a lead, even one as slim as one run, but a couple of years of messing about with Win Probability has taught me that to expect the bullpen to hold such slim leads game after game is a recipe for a .500 season.

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