Should We Have the Melk-Man Delivered?

The rumour mill (or in this case The Oakland Press' Matthew Mowery) reported a 'real' interest on the part of the Tigers for free agent Melky Cabrera. Cabrera has most recently been playing in HomerDome North, where the Blue Jays take flight.

By now, the pattern should be familiar. Out comes the Brock2 projection spreadsheet, and in goes the data. However, I would like to briefly digress to take a look at the pattern of Cabrera's career.

Through age 25 (2010), Melky's career slash line was .267/.328/.379. He had mostly been a CF for the Yankees up to then, with his most recent season being at all three outfield positions for the Braves. From age 26 through age 29, he has a slash line of .309/.351/.458. It's not surprising for a player to peak at this period, but that is quite a jump, adding 42 points of BA, 23 points of OBP and 79 points of slugging. He brings doubles power, rather than home-run power. Brock2 suggests his walk rate is going to improve noticeably over the next four years, with his doubles power staying about the same. We've probably seen the best of his home-run hitting. This is a player who was suspended for violating Major League Baseball's policy on doping.

His Runs Created over the next four years are 58, 78, 66 and 72. Not the greatest for a corner outfielder, but there is definitely a spot for production like that where Tigers' outfield corner positions are concerned. He would likely be a noticeable upgrade over Torii Hunter's hitting production, and thus would improve the Tigers' lineup straightaway.

The stumbling block is money. Beyond the Box Score's free agency calculator suggests an annual average value of around $9 million, which is not a great improvement on his last contract, for which Toronto paid him $8 million.

That said, Melky potentially offers a long-term (four-year) fix of a fielding position, and is not coming off a career year. If I'm going to overpay for 274 runs created over the next four years, I think I would rather do it for a left-fielder than a DH.

Victor Martinez: Four More Years?

It seems the market for Victor Martinez' next contract has been set at four years. If I were GM of the Tigers, would I go after him? He is possibly my favourite Tiger hitter, so my initial reaction would be to get in the bidding, post-haste.

Once again, I turn to the Brock2 spreadsheet to consider this. Let's look at his Fangraphs' WAR and RC for his four seasons with the Tigers:

Season      WAR    RC
2011        2.5    97
2012         0      0
2013        0.9    93
2014        4.4   122

Right away, there is a problem. V-Mart was injured in 2012, which makes projections a little bit difficult. Then, we see that being a DH means one has to be an exceptional hitter to show any real WAR impact. (DHs don't field, which hurts them, in the WARverse.) Basically, a .301 average garnered few WAR. A DH needs to hit somewhere between .320 and .330 to start to be worth the kind of salaries a full-time DH can command. Let's also note that V-Mart's 32 home runs in 2014 is a career high. That's not likely to happen again. Here's his projections in those categories for the next four years, plus what Brock2 thinks his Runs Created will be:

Season     BA     HR    RC
2015      .297    14    67
2016      .289    19    78
2017      .314    16    82
2018      .277    14    67

That 2015 RC value is, I think, too low on account of his missing 2012. I would expect a figure more like 2017's 82 is probable. However, all those numbers are below his previous four-year established performance. That is a very large red flag.

Turning to the Beyond the Box Score free agency calculator, and adding a generous estimate of 1.7 WAR for his injured 2012 season, I get an average annual value for a 36-year-old DH of 14.9 million. But I don't think I want to use that value, because of the career-high home-run total for 2014. ZiPS, Dan Szymborski's projection system, forecast only twelve home runs for 2014, while Steamer had him with fourteen. These projections worked out to a 0.9 WAR (ZiPS) and a 1.3 WAR (Steamer). I would prefer to use a WAR number closer to these than to his actual 4.4 WAR in projecting how much I want to pay Victor Martinez.

Adding them together gives a 2.2 WAR, which leads to a far more realistic annual average value for a 36-year-old DH coming off a career year of $9.7 million. That works out to a 4/$38.8 contract, and that would be my ceiling. But we can't do that, because that is a pay cut relative to his 2014 salary of $12 million. So despite his MVP-worthy heroics for 2014, I would say goodbye to Victor Martinez, and many thanks for a great effort.

The problem for the Tigers is the uncertainty over the expensive contracts for Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, both of whom had seasons below expectations in 2014. The last thing the Tigers need is to tie up $20.8 million in excess realistic-market-value for an aging designated hitter. I tend to think the new-fangled sabermetricians are laughably cheap in paying for quality players, but in this case I think they are probably right.

Washington Nationals 2014 Batted Ball Analysis

My batting reviews use types of batted balls to essay an assessment of how much a hitter's statistics might depart from their 'true talent level'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, getting that dying quail, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike-outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.

Ian  Desmond       79    61   +18
Bryce  Harper      51    41   +10
Jayson  Werth     100    94   + 6
Danny  Espinosa    31    26   + 5
Adam  LaRoche      84    80   + 4
Zach  Walters       5     4   + 1
Michael  Taylor     4     3   + 1
Tyler  Moore       11    11     0
Nate  Schierholtz   4     4     0
Ryan  Zimmerman    32    33   - 1
Steven  Souza       2     3   - 1
Anthony  Rendon   100   102   - 2
Greg  Dobbs         1     3   - 2
Jeff  Kobernus      0     2   - 2
Scott  Hairston     5     8   - 3
Sandy  Leon         2     6   - 4
Wilson  Ramos      38    43   - 5
Jose  Lobaton      17    24   - 7
Nate  McLouth       9    17   - 8
Asdrubal  Cabrera  21    30   -11
Kevin  Frandsen    19    32   -13
Denard  Span       88   102   -14

I only did this analysis once for the Nationals in 2014 and, just like last time, Ian Desmond has been the luckiest batter, while poor Denard Span has been poorly rewarded for his efforts at the plate. Although I haven't don't a study of this, I use a rule of thumb that +/-5 is within reasonable expectations. So the main candidates to expect a decline from next year are Bryce Harper and possibly Jayson Werth (and Desmond), while we should expect more from Jose Lobaton, Nate McLouth, Asdrubal Cabrera and Kevin Frandsen (and Span). So it's just as well the Nationals picked up Span's 2015 option.

Washington Nationals Fielding in Review 2014

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers, one that closes the book on the 2014 Nationals fielding as monitored on this blog. ('Last time' was a l-o-o-o-n-n-g time ago, the end of July.) My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        8.8     +1.8    0.2
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        2.8     -2.9   -2.6
Span (CF)          -4.7     -4.3    .924    -.010       .919        8.2     +3.6    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       2.3     +2.2    .784    -.004       .787        5.0     -0.7    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -5.0     -3.1    .793    -.007       .796      -13.2     -5.2    n/a
Harper (LF)         1.5     +2.8    .886    +.014       .881        1.1     +6.6    n/a
Desmond (SS)        0.1     +2.4    .822    +.019       .799      -10.3     +0.5    n/a
Werth (RF)         -1.6     +2.9    .931    -.002       .906      -10.0     -1.4    n/a
Rendon (3B)         4.2     +3.8    .683    -.016       .709        4.2     +1.8    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .907    +.002       .881      - 3.0     -3.6    n/a
A. Cabrera (2B)    -2.2     ---     .758     ---        .787      - 1.5     ---     n/a 
minimum 220 innings

I have been tracking fielding in this manner for a few years now, and my only solid conclusion is that by and large outfielders tend to find their RZR level for the season quite quickly, while infielders can be more mercurial. A metric like UZR, by contrast, swings quite wildly over the course of the season at all positions. This is the fundamental problem with metrics that apply a relative standard, which is the approach adopted the most widely accepted fielding metrics. This is to say that most fielding metrics measure a player's performance against an average for the position throughout the league. I find this deeply unsatisfactory. I have been thinking about this problem, and have a solution that I'd like to test; but I make no promises about posting it here at any time.

Moving on to the actual metrics, the most important thing for Nationals fans to note, I think, is just how much Bryce Harper improved as a left-fielder over the course of the season. Nonetheless, he is not much more than an average fielder overall. The defensive star for the Nationals seems to be Anthony Rendon, if one believes UZR, but RZR paints a very different picture. What is strange is that UZR gives him a high range value. One can only throw up one's hands in despair at such a divergent picture. DRA likes Denard Span best, but UZR seems to think he was one of the worse fielders. RZR suggests he was about average. Again, we see a slight divergence between RZR and UZR on Span's ability to range the outfield. Well, at least we can all agree that Adam LaRoche was a bit of a defensive liability, surely. Nope — though UZR and DRA see him as the worst regular on the team, RZR thinks his range was a little bit below league average.

The only person on whom the different metrics reach a consensus is Asdrubal Cabrera, who was got for his bat. Just as well, too. He is seen as a subpar with the glove.

Let me conclude with a note about Jose Lobaton. He was picked up to provide some defensive help, and to be honest he did exactly that. DRA likes his fielding, and his pitch-framing, which last time I checked was -1.7, rose into positive territory. A good acquisition, Mr Rizzo!

Stranding Inherited Runners 2014: Highlighting Tigers

Matt Snyder at CBS' Eye on Baseball (the Home for All Baseball Fans, as I think Dayn Perry puts it) has once again generated a list using Baseball Reference's Play Index of relievers performance in 2014 at stranding runners on base. Because the Tigers' relief corps has been a matter of some controversy this season, I thought I'd highlight their performance. These are drawn from a list of 110 relievers who over the season added up to having at least twenty-five runners on base when they came into the game.

Player        IRS%     Rank
Hardy         27.6      62
Alburquerque  27.7      63
Coke          36.5      92
Krol          42.1     103

The Tigers' relievers were not particularly good at keeping runners from scoring. None of them are in the top half of the ranking, let alone in an elite zone like the top third or quarter. This isn't really a surprise to those who followed the games. We can surmise from this that Brad Ausmus' main options in a jam during the season were Phil Coke and Al Alburquerque, although Blaine Hardy seems to have taken over from Coke after he arrived to stay.

It does raise the question of why Ausmus changed his bullpen set-up in the playoffs, though. Alburquerque had the second-best percentage by not very much. But, then again, the 2013 table shows he was a much riskier proposition the year before, with a IRS% of 35%.

Even more astonishingly, that 2013 performance was still good enough for second-best on the team. (Phil Coke's 33.3% was the best.) The Tigers may have come in for a lot of criticism for their bullpen this season, but last season was worse. Dombrowski's efforts to improve that sector show he achieved something.

What to offer Giancarlo Stanton?

Yesterday, one of my favourite sites, MLBTradeRumors.com, mentioned that contract talks between Giancarlo Stanton and the Miami Marlins were underway.

Earlier this year, I wrote a post about how much Ian Desmond might actually be worth on the market, based on what the Washington Nationals suggested he might be worth in their contract offer to him. I am going to use some of the information discussed there, combined with Beyond the Box Score's recent post on estimating free-agent contracts, to see just what kind of price the Marlins might need to pay. Stanton, who won a Silver Slugger award for his performance in 2014, is going to be an expensive proposition, but signing him would do a lot to challenge the 'fire-sale cheapskate ownership' reputation of the Marlins franchise that began after 1997.

Projecting careers is a fool's errand, especially after the kind of traumatic injury experienced by Stanton. Some comparisons have been made to Tony Conigliaro, making projecting just next season somewhat problematic. How much will that experience affect Stanton's ability to stand in the box and attack the ball? Worse still, I don't have a super-sophisticated projection model like ZiPS or Steamer. I do, however, have a Brock2 spreadsheet, based on a system that Bill James devised about thirty years ago. This lets me work out a basic Runs Created value for each of Stanton's seasons, which we can compare to his FanGraphs WAR for the same season:

Season      WAR      RC
2010        2.3       59
2011        3.2       97
2012        5.6       97
2013        2.3       74
2014        6.1      118

There is a big difference in relating WAR to RC in 2010 and 2013 and in relating 2011 to 2012. Examining FanGraphs' breakdown of WAR values between batting, fielding and base-running in more detail, what one sees is that 2011 is suppressed by poor base-running and a lower fielding score. In 2013, Stanton fielded a lot worse than he did in 2010. So we have to be a little bit careful here. Stanton's 6.1 in 2014 for a 118 RunsCreated is probably the benchmark to use, as his base-running and fielding numbers fall around the medians for his career.

Stanton has two arbitration years remaining. What we need is to estimate the value of his next two seasons by WAR, and then guess what they might lead an arbitrator to award. Using that 118 RC = 6.1 WAR value for 2014, for 2015 Brock2 projects Stanton at 121 RC and for 2016 a projection of 126 RC. These work out to 6.3 WAR and 6.5 WAR respectively. MLB Trade Rumors has already projected a $13 million salary for 2015, a doubling of his 2014 salary. Despite the injury, Stanton played quite a bit, making 639 Plate Appearances, and playing time is an important component of arbitration raises. One probably ought to anticipate a similar doubling of salary based on his 2015 projected Runs Created, so let's say Stanton can expect something like $35 million over the next two seasons, allowing him to underperform his projection a little, a possibility after such a horrific injury.

When one gets to Stanton's free-agency years, the problems begin because at this moment we have almost no idea how many years the Marlins might offer, nor how many Stanton might be looking for. There are effectively three broad-based options here. The obvious first two are a long contract that basically ties up Stanton's most productive years, or a short contract that allows Stanton to return to free agency with a prime year or two left giving him a chance at a second monster contract. Based on his Brock2 projection, Stanton would probably want a short contract to end after his age 29 season (2019), the Marlins might want to keep him through age 31 (2021). A longer-term contract would probably see the Marlins wanting him through age 38 (2028), although they might want to curtail it at age 35 (2025) in order to reduce the risk of carrying a high-salaried underperforming player. Stanton probably wants to go right to age 40 (2030), which would still give him a chance to sign a one-year deal with a contender needing veteran leadership from a proven winner.

A third option could be a longish deal with an opt-out. This has the advantage from Stanton's point of view of putting pressure to contend on the Marlins or whatever team they may trade him to after agreeing to an opt-out. Stanton has made it plain he wants to get to the post-season, and he wants to see Marlins' ownership show a similar commitment.

The Beyond the Box Score free agency calculator suggests that, after three 6+ WAR seasons, a free agent right-fielder can expect an annual average value salary of $39.2 million. Since this is based on a 2014 season, we can only expect this sum to go up. I suspect the actual figure might be between $42-45 million, given that MLB player wages rise somewhere between 5 and 8 per cent per annum. That kind of annual salary equals the Marlins' entire estimated payroll for 2014, according to Baseball-Reference. It is also double what the Marlins were estimated to have offered Albert Pujols in 2011.

The only way this deal is going to work for the Marlins, I believe, is with a substantial chunk of deferred money, the technique Jerry Colangelo and Joe Garagiola, Jr used to build the 2001 World Champion Diamondbacks. I suspect Stanton's willingness to sign with the Marlins is going to depend on his willingness to accept a substantial number of deferred payments.

What kind of proposal might open the negotiations? I think I would copy Alex Rodriguez' contract with the Texas Rangers, signed during the 2000/01 off-season. That was a ten-year deal with an opt-out after the seventh year, with an average annual value of $25.2 million and about 20 per cent of the pre-opt-out salaries deferred. I would add together two arbitration years at a value of $35 million, and eight years at $40 million to give a total of $355 million. That gives an annual average value of $35.5 million, and an estimated actual in-season value during the first seven years of about $30 million after the deferrals. (I actually would prefer to defer a lot more, ideally as much as 50 per cent.) I'm honestly not sure I'd go much above $355 million simply because I'm not convinced the South Florida market can sustain a large payroll for an extended period. The evidence is that Floridians are not even particularly good about supporting even winners over the long haul. Sometimes it is better to work around one's shortcomings, than to pretend they don't exist.

The immediate problem, though, is that such an offer means finding an additional $17 million for 2015, before adding any other payroll. At the moment Cot's says that the Marlins have about $18 million in commitments for 2015. Adding $30 million for Stanton will take that up to $48 million, before anyone else's arbitration raise or salaries for pre-arbitration players. For 2015, the Marlins might be looking at a payroll in the $70-80 million range to be as competitive as Stanton would like. That's almost a doubling of payroll in one season. Is that really affordable right now? It's hard to say given Mr Loria's history of tight control on the team's spending.

Fearless Joe Sheehan Predicts #1

•The Diamondbacks' signing of Troy Glaus is a strange move. ... His contract--I'll call this one now--is untradable the moment he signs it, which means in two years he'll be blocking a spot the D'backs may eventually need for Conor Jackson or Jamie D'Antona.

Source.

December 11, 2004: Signed as a Free Agent with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
December 27, 2005: Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks with Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays for Miguel Batista and Orlando Hudson.

Source.

Nationals: Do or Die, My Good-bye

I was an Expos fan. In 2004, I listened to many of the games during that last season by means of MLB's GameDay audio. Compared to the previous two seasons of the MLB Expos, that demanded a degree of fortitude and loyalty. I still bear a deep grudge towards Brian O'Nora, who during an interleague game called a foul ball fair for a home run. When the Expos were moved to Washington, I was upset and my initial response was to look for an alternative team to follow, settling on the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, as luck would have it, the Diamondbacks were playing in Washington at the start of the 2005 season, and I decided to listen to Charlie Slowes and Dave Shea. I was charmed by Slowes in particular, and gradually my familiarity with the 2005 Nationals' roster holdovers from the Expos, and their division-leading antics, had me sticking by the team.

For younger Nationals' fans, who found that where baseball teams are concerned it is better to receive than to give, the kind of humility required to hang on to fandom of a team that is moved is possibly hard to envisage. Longer-term Washington baseball fans might know the feeling well, especially after the original Nationals/Senators became the Twins and went on to a very successful 1960s while the Replacements really gave meaning to the old saying, 'First in war, &c'. In this case, I was rooting for a bunch of people who had made life very miserable with their taunts on message boards during 2002-4. Not many Expos' rooters followed me to Washington. In fact, many would despise me for sticking with the franchise.

The next four years saw me dividing my fandom between the Nationals and the team that I actually grew up with, the Detroit Tigers. The improbable 2006 World Series run by the Tigers did a lot to draw my interest, but my preference for National League baseball (no DH! — the reason I became a fan of a National League team in the first place) also pulled me back towards the ex-Expos. I was tugged in two directions.

In 2009, I made a conscious decision at the start of spring training to refocus on the Nationals, and I started writing this blog to help with that. The title of this blog is, in fact, a Latin pun on 'D.C.'. I paradoxically enjoyed following that losing 2009 team, despite its problems. But there were also annoyances, such as the horrible Rob Dibble & Bob Carpenter television duo, and the fact that Nationals Park clearly referenced not the Nationals' franchise history, but the history of Washington baseball. Now that's great for Washington baseball fans, but it creates problems outside of the District. And, in fact, there has been a constant tension between the Expos' heritage and the marketing problem of building a new fan-base. I've never really been comfortable with the Nationals borrowing the Twins' past, given that there was an Expos' past that the Nationals had every right to. But I also understood that the Expos' past could not speak with much authority to Washington's baseball fans.

2012, right down to Mr Slowes' outstanding home-run call on Jayson Werth's walk-off in Game #4 of the NLDS against the Cardinals, was for me a culmination. Despite being in Canada, not Washington, despite being nurtured into my baseball fandom in Tiger Stadium, not DC Stadium, my elation was just as great as that of anyone's along the Potomac. And the sadness that followed after the Game #5 loss was equally as great. I had followed the construction of that team from 2009 with interest. Those events hurt a bit more than the Tigers' loss to the Giants in the World Series. But when the 2013 season rolled around, something had changed between me and the Nationals. I still don't know what, but I felt a distance that wasn't there before. Was it the free agency of John Lannan? The acquisition of Denard Span? The trade of Michael Morse? Was it the fact that the bitter loss of the 2012 NLDS had cemented their identity as a Washington team, as opposed to a continuing example of the Expos' futile pursuit of post-season glory? Not even Slowes & Jageler could shift a sensation that something was rotten in the state of my Nationals'fandom. The 2014 season simply reinforced these feelings of distance. Instead I invested considerable emotion in the ups and downs of the Tigers, who literally uglied their way into an AL Central pennant.

Then, last Saturday night, there was the 1924 Flag That Will Fly Forever, marking the Washington team's World Series victory that season. Except that flag belongs to the Twins, who took it with them along with the makings of a competitive team when they left in 1960. Now I gather that something like it may have been flying over Nationals Park since it opened in 2008, but on Saturday the prominence given it in the television coverage rankled with me. First Washington baseball fans took someone else's team, and now they are taking another club's history. That's one way to look at it. One could just as easily argue that the Twins left it there when they moved to another city. But neutral arbiters have assigned it to the Twins. It's one of those areas where one's predisposition will determine what side of the argument one will find oneself on.

As the Tigers crashed out of the ALDS in miserable fashion, I came to a conclusion: the Expo in me has to let go of the Nationals. Unless I wind up living in the Chesapeake Bay area in the future, I will focus my baseball team fandom on the Tigers. Tonight will be the last game I watch as a fan of the Nationals. I will still make the post-season blog posts I intend to make about the 2014 Nationals, but they will be the last gestures towards a team that I have followed, in some fashion or another, since 2005. Whether the Nationals do or die, I say ave atque vale to a part of my life that sought to maintain ties to a dead franchise and a memory of past times.

Kyle Ryan's AAA Outings

Kyle Ryan has spent all of the month pitching at the AAA level, and today he makes the jump to the big leagues. What can those minor-league outings tell us about what we could expect to see against the White Sox?

I like to use QMAX, a system developed in the days of the Big Bad baseball Annual, itself a lineal descendant of Bill James' old abstracts. QMAX is helpfully thought of as a means of distinguishing the varying quality of quality and non-quality starts. I have always found it especially useful in helping to understand minor-league outings, even though it was designed with Major-League statistics. It looks at two components of pitching, the ability to miss bats (stuff) and the ability to pitch in the zone (command). Outings are categorised by where they fall on a matrix, such as 'the Success Square', 'the Hit Hard region' and some don't fit into any category at all. The 'Power Precipice' is a zone where pitchers who successfully overpower hitters still find themselves teetering on the brink of a fall because they walk too many. For young players, that's a hopeful sign, because improved command will supplement good stuff. By contrast, the Elite Square reflects the stingiest of pitchers in allowing chances for the opposition, and suggest a pitcher who is ready to try the next level. Here's a list of Kyle Ryan's performances at the AAA level.

2 August Elite Square
 8 August Elite Square
14 August Uncategorised
20 August Elite Square
25 August Success Square/Power Precipice

Now what we know about minor-league baseball is that for pitchers, a lack of command at AAA will mean problems walking batters in the big leagues. We also know that AAA fielders aren't quite as good as major-league ones, so pitchers will suffer a few more hits than they might. In terms of hits given up, the Toledo Mud Hens look to be around league average.

The AAA outings suggest that Ryan is ready to have a cup of coffee at the major-league level, as he has shown some ability at mastering AAA hitters. He is very good at keeping the ball in the strike zone, although it may be his success depends on being a little too crafty for major-league hitters (which is to say that they are harder to fool than minor-leaguers). His k/9s indicate he is a pitch-to-contact type, and his numbers at Erie (AA) might give a clearer idea of what we might expect in the hitter's park that the White Sox play in. There he gave up almost twice as many hits as he did at Toledo, and had an HR/9 of 1.1.
I suspect we'll see something on the order of 5 IP, 5 R, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 2 K. I'd settle for that.

2014 Tigers' Hitters' Batted Balls in Review #2

I haven't posted any of my batted ball or fielding surveys for quite a while, so I thought I'd start a new cycle with the Tigers, who have been most on my mind of late. This review uses a method involving batted balls to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs and the third the positive or negative difference.

J.D.  Martinez         60     41    +19
Victor  Martinez      91     78    +13
Alex  Avila           43     35    + 8
Miguel  Cabrera       87     81    + 6
Rajai  Davis          48     49    - 1
Torii  Hunter         59     60    - 1
Ezequiel  Carrera      3      4    - 1
Eugenio  Suarez       25     26    - 1
Tyler  Collins         0      1    - 1
Alex  Gonzalez         1      4    - 3
Bryan  Holaday         9     12    - 3
Danny  Worth           1      5    - 4
Andrew  Romine        12     20    - 8
Nick  Castellanos     52     60    - 8
Don  Kelly            13     23    -10 
Austin  Jackson       49     60    -11
Ian  Kinsler          68     91    -23

JD-Mart continues to be fortunate on the outcomes of his batted balls, although his luck has faded quite a bit. At the other end of the scale, Ian Kinsler has slumped quite a bit. Most of the other players have moved slightly up or down, although Victor Martinez has continued to hit above his batted-ball weight at about the same pace. I predicted last time that a slump might lead to a run production problem, which as I discussed earlier in fact happened after the All-Star break. I think it is important to note that Rajai Davis has been an adequate replacement for Austin Jackson with the bat — especially with such a strong showing from Eugenio Suarez at shortstop and slight improvement from Torii Hunter — but let's see what the fielding numbers tell us about his defence.

29 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

National League action reigns supreme for a change at the top, although the Nationals are going to have to play under American-League rules during their visit to Seattle. Those two teams have top-notch bullpens, one of the highest bullpen scores I've seen for a series. They also have the best pitching match-up of the day going for them, with blog favourite Jordan Zimmermann facing Felix Hernandez. The AL Central Division clash between Cleveland and Kansas City this weekend has a lot of potential for unsettling the playoff race. a sweep by Cleveland has the potential to bring several fringe teams, including the Indians, into the hunt for October. The match-up between Danny Salazar and Jason Vargas is not without its charms. Meanwhile, pity the poor Arizona Diamondbacks, once again at the bottom of the table, who send Josh Collmenter against Christian Bergman.

Milwaukee vs San Francisco  61
Washington vs Seattle       61
Cleveland vs Kansas City    58
Miami vs Atlanta            58
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh    54
Detroit vs White Sox        54
Cubs vs St Louis            50
Yankees vs Toronto          48
Oakland vs Angels           46
Minnesota vs Baltimore      45
Boston vs Tampa Bay         44
Philadelphia vs Mets        43
Texas vs Houston            43
Dodgers vs San Diego        42
Colorado vs Arizona         41

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

28 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

By virtue of its value in the race for the second Wild Card spot in the American League, this afternoon's game between the Yankees and the Tigers is potentially the most entertaining game of the day, by a little bit, over the game between the Rockies and the Giants. The Tigers once again have to draw on their minor-league reserves to send Kyle Lobstein out against Hiroki Kuroda. Overall, it is a mediocre, at best, day for marquee starting pitcher match-ups. Your best bet in this regard is, by a single point a surprising one — Collin McHugh vs Nick Tepesch, in the battle for Texas.

Yankees vs Detroit        60
Colorado vs San Francisco 57
Atlanta vs Mets           54
Minnesota vs Kansas City  53
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore    47
Cleveland vs White Sox    45
Oakland vs Angels         45
Texas vs Houston          43
Cubs vs Cincinnati        42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

27 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The order of today's games is almost identical to that of yesterday's, although Clayton Kershaw versus Wade Miley is a highly entertaining pitching match-up, pulling the Dodgers vs Arizona game up several places off the bottom. (I caught some of yesterday's game, which was no advertisement for the replay system.) Today's top pitching pair is in Detroit, where Shane Greene takes on David Price. However, if one includes bullpens in the calculation, you'll want to watch Atlanta versus the Mets.

Texas vs Seattle            60
Yankees vs Detroit          59
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
St Louis vs Pittsburgh      58
Minnesota vs Kansas City    54
Atlanta vs Mets             55
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      47
Cleveland vs White Sox      47
Miami vs Angels             45
Boston vs Toronto           45
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Dodgers vs Arizona          45
Oakland vs Houston          44
Washington vs Philadelphia  42
Cubs vs Cincinnati          43

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

Tigers 2014 Game 130: V-Mart vs McCarthy

Victor Martinez' duel with Brandon McCarthy last night showed exactly why baseball is a game of fine distinctions, and well worth one's close attention. Let me show you three strike-zone plots from BrooksBaseball.net.

1st inning

3rd inning

6th inning

V-Mart, as I like to call him, went 1 for 3, which is a .333 batting average, so he did rather well by traditional standards. More than that, though, we can see that in the first plate appearance McCarthy kept changing the plane on V-Mart, until V-Mart chased a pitch well off the plate that he foul-tipped into the catcher's glove. Tom Gage, of the Detroit News, tweeted that it was 'a heckuva pitch', which put me on alert.

In the third, V-Mart swung at the first pitch, a sinker to a spot that McCarthy hadn't used in the first PA, and sent a grounder to Mark Teixeira at first. Teixeira made the play unassisted.

In the sixth, the two previous PAs came together. McCarthy went back to working highish, outside and away. When that didn't work, he went back to the sinker, only this time he reversed the first PA, now working down and over the plate. V-Mart connected for a single on this one, and eventually would score on Nick Castellanos' single.

The only slight cloud on the evening was the nine hits that Rick Porcello surrendered. He made up for that with not issuing a single walk, but his performance was not dominant, and explains why I never felt comfortable given the Tigers' bullpen uncertainties. This was a good win for the Tigers, despite Alex Gordon's walk-off in Kansas City, which meant the Tigers could only keep pace with the Royals. I'm afraid I'm not entirely sold on #RoyalsDevilMagic yet, no matter how frequently Rany Jazayerli tweets about it. I'm still going with Jim Price's view that 'the MoJo is moving towards Detroit'.

26 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Today's top pitching match-up is in Philadelphia, between Gio Gonzalez and Cole Hamels. Despite this fact, the game itself is deemed as potentially not very entertaining at all. Why is this? Three factors are involved. The first is that as the Nationals are very likely to make the playoffs and the Phillies are improbable playoff contenders, the game carries little weight in terms of playoff value. A Nationals loss isn't going to hurt their chances all that much, and a Phillies win isn't going to put them in the running for a spot. Secondly, the Phillies bullpen isn't particularly watchable, largely because of a dreadful Left-on-Base percentage. Thirdly, Philles hitters lack power and don't run the bases very well. Basically, the Phillies are dragging down the game's value. So there. Also, I noticed that Detroit now has sneaked ahead of Kansas City in playoff probability. Meanwhile, Yankee fans should take note that their playoff odds are actually worse than those of Cincinnati. That should put things into context.

Texas vs Seattle            60
Yankees vs Detroit          59
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
Minnesota vs Kansas City    56
St Louis vs Pittsburgh      55
Atlanta vs Mets             55
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      48
Miami vs Angels             47
Boston vs Toronto           46
Cleveland vs White Sox      46
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Oakland vs Houston          45
Washington vs Philadelphia  44
Dodgers vs Arizona          44
Cubs vs Cincinnati          43

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

Thinking About Garbage Numbers

On Saturday night, I saw Jarred Cosart's tweet about Adeiny Hechavarria and his fielding metrics. Fielding numbers have been controversial for most of the history of sabermetrics, so anyone with any sense to begin with should regard them as 'informed opinions'. (I also hold the view that this is somewhat true of park factors, pitching numbers and even hitting numbers, albeit to lesser degrees as one advances along that list.) Inspired by Jarred Cosart, I went to check the garbage dump at FanGraphs, and this morning my thunder was stolen, somewhat, by Jeff Sullivan's post on the matter.

What Sullivan didn't look at, but what I did look at straightaway on Saturday night, was the lesser-known 'Inside Edge' numbers at FanGraphs. 'Inside Edge' is assembled by scouts who assign a difficulty value to plays. Read more here, and Inside Edge's website is here. I found Inside Edge interesting in thinking about Miguel Cabrera's fielding during 2013, in that it suggested Cabrera did extremely well with routine plays at third base, but was somewhat taxed the more he had to move. That fit my own impression better than some awful number spat out by UZR or DRS.

This link to 2014's qualified shortstops table of Inside Edge data is sortable, if you click on the column tops. What you will see is that Adeiny Hechavarria is about average at making routine plays (those Inside Edge rates as being 60% 'field-able' or more), but slumps down the list at plays I would call 'marginal' (40-60% 'field-ability'). Looking at 'difficult' plays (40% or less), however, Hechavarria puts in his best performance. Now, if you look at FanGraphs rating of his UZR or DRS in more detail, what you'll see is that he's below average in range and in turning the double play. If he can get to a ball, he's unlikely to make an error, but he doesn't get to all the balls that he could. We see this also borne out by the Inside Edge data I described above, in that he performs badly at what I called 'marginal' plays.

There's a sense that both sides of this argument are right, which is not really the way for a humble blogger like me to get attention and land a high-paying job in the industry. Hechavarria is very good at making plays most shortstops cannot, which will often occur at critical moments in a game, and good enough at making the routine plays. But he doesn't fill the space in between too well.

25 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The day's top pitching match-up, John Lackey vs Francisco Liriano, carries the key National League Central Division clash to the top of the day's chart. Tracking the playoff odds each day, one can see how much a single pairing of results makes one realise a race is much closer than it might feel. The Blue Jays lost quite a bit of ground over the weekend, although their odds were never good. Thus, both their game with the Red Sox and the game between the Rockies and the Giants start out with the same potential entertainment score, but once one adjusts for relative positions in the race, where the Giants remain on the cusp of the second wild-card spot, the Blue Jays' game falls five points in value. Running off a solid winning streak would probably help the Blue Jays immensely at this point.

St Louis vs Pittsburgh      59
Texas vs Seattle            58
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
Yankees vs Royals           57
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      48
Boston vs Toronto           46
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Oakland vs Houston          44
Miami vs Angels             44
Washington vs Philadelphia  42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

Tigers' 2014 Game 128: Miguel Cabrera's Double Plays

Miguel Cabrera hit into two double plays on Saturday night, the first of which killed off a rally, and the second of which possibly cost the Tigers an additional insurance run. In this case it appears that Cabrera made the right choice but got a bad result. Those pitches were in the general area where he has enjoyed the best success. Offered in evidence, a heat map taken from BrooksBaseball.net On this I have done my own 'eyeball Mark One' plot of where the balls would have been. I also include the two plots, again taken from BrooksBaseball.net, of the two plate appearances using PitchFX to show the balls relationship to the strike zone so you can decide if my locations are about right.

24 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The contest between the Mariners and the Red Sox finishes the weekend as the potentially most entertaining game. The series has been first or second each day, swapping with the Giants and Nationals yesterday. Both the Mariners and the Giants have been amongst the most potentially entertaining teams since I started doing this in the spring. The best pitching match-up is at Yankee Stadium, where Chris Sale goes against Chris Capuano, which just edges out Max Scherzer versus Kyle Gibson in Target Field, a ball park I have decided is not aesthetically appealing on the television. What's all that brown about? Aficionados of BETA development processes will be eager to learn that I have tweaked the formula quite significantly in that I have reduced the impact of the playoff value. Otherwise, by the end of the season it would have accounted for 100 per cent of the PEGS. As it stands, by the end of the season it will now only account for 70 per cent of the PEGS, and I may yet reduce that further. Tweet me (@frapaolotweets) if you have strong opinions about what value it should possess.

Seattle vs Boston           61
San Francisco vs Washington 60
Detroit vs Minnesota        58
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     57
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       56
Kansas City vs Texas        52
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        48
White Sox vs Yankees        48
St Louis vs Philadelphia    47
Angels vs Oakland           46
Houston vs Cleveland        45
Baltimore vs Cubs           45
San Diego vs Arizona        43
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

Summer of Discontent

Yesterday's ugly game between the Tigers and the Twins is, one hopes, that moment when the Tigers hit rock bottom. I'm thankful that it is the Royals who have chased down the Tigers this season, because they are the only AL Central team that I don't feel some Tigers-inspired animosity towards.

When one looks at the season overall, the Tigers have not been what we would be led to believe they were since the All-Star break. The last time they put together a winning streak of more than three games was one of five games 8-12 July (which included beating the Royals a couple of times). Since the All-Star game, the Tigers have only the one three-game winning streak, the beating up of the poor Colorado Rockies at home in the beginning of August. By contrast, the Tigers have suffered three four-game losing streaks in that time, if one includes the pre-break loss on 13 July against the Royals.

After last night, it is easy to blame the bullpen for the woes, but I don't see it like that. In 34 games starting 18 July, the Tigers have scored four or fewer runs 22 times. That is two-thirds of their games. Their record in those games is 5-17. They scored 119 runs and allowed 251, for a Pythagorean winning percentage of .207 against an actual one of .227. By contrast, in the 91 games before the break, the Tigers scored four or fewer runs 50 times, or just over half of their games. Their record in those games was 16-34. They scored 171 runs in those games, and allowed 300. That's an actual .320 winning percentage against a Pythagorean .265 winning percentage.

The Tigers are still beating their Pythagorean winning percentage in these low-scoring games. The big problem is a greater proportion of their games fall into this category, which is a fault of the hitting, not the pitching. (Don't forget, this excludes yesterday's game, because the Tigers scored six.

This picture, created using Bill Petti's spray chart tool sums up a serious problem for the Tigers, one that I think needs to be addressed in constructing the lineup. It compares Miguel Cabrera's batted-ball hits and outs for 2014 (right) versus 2013 (left). Note how this season the batted balls don't seem to fly as far, and how many fall just short of the seats. This power outage is killing the Tigers. The Big Man needs to adjust his approach, and maybe needs to be protection for Victor Martinez. Something must be done, because time is running out.

23 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Eyes interested in youthful pitchers will be drawn to Target Field today, where Buck Farmer goes for the Tigers in the day game, while Trevor May pitches for the home team in the night cap. Otherwise, your top pitching match-up is in Los Angeles tonight, with Jacob DeGrom facing Zack Greinke. If I didn't adjust for playoff chances, that would be your top game of the day, followed by the Angels vs Oakland, then a tie between Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee and San Francisco vs Washington.

Seattle vs Boston           63
San Francisco vs Washington 61
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       60
Detroit vs Minnesota        58 (consolidated score for both games)
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     57
Kansas City vs Texas        54
St Louis vs Philadelphia    48
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        46
White Sox vs Yankees        45
Houston vs Cleveland        44
Angels vs Oakland           43
Baltimore vs Cubs           42
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             42
San Diego vs Arizona        38

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

22 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Today sees notably weaker pitching match-ups than yesterday, and the teams at the top are characterised by strong bullpens, rather than a great pairing of starters. The top combination among the starters is Yordany Ventura going against Colby Lewis in Arlington, which only gets third place on the actual PEGS rating. Detroit's precarious playoff situation pushes an otherwise weak game up the chart, while the lack of playoff impact pushes the Angels visit to Oakland a bit further down than otherwise might be merited. But that's a big divisional contest. Pittsburgh's visit to Milwaukee is another interesting playoff-divisional set-to, but the Pirates' fading hopes have pulled that down a little, as they will depend quite a bit on results in Washington and Cincinnati to improve their odds.

San Francisco vs Washington 64
Seattle vs Boston           62
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       61
Kansas City vs Texas        58
Detroit vs Minnesota        55
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     55
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        48
St Louis vs Philadelphia    46
White Sox vs Yankees        45
Houston vs Cleveland        45
Angels vs Oakland           44
Baltimore vs Cubs           43
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             41
San Diego vs Arizona        39

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

21 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provided entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

PEGS for 21/VIII/2014

San Francisco vs Cubs  65
Atlanta vs Cincinnati  62
Detroit vs Tampa Bay   61
Cleveland vs Minnesota 55
Houston vs Yankees     53
San Diego vs Dodgers   53
Angels vs Boston       52
Arizona vs Washington  51

By pitching match-ups alone, today's top game is the West Coast encounter setting Tyson Ross against Clayton Kershaw.

Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Some months ago, I mentioned that I was thinking about an alternative to NERD, Fangraphs' method of determining the aesthetic appeal of a day's games. NERD has two problems. The first is that a couple of its categories correlate too closely, I'm told. More importantly, though, NERD is all about new-fangled Sabermetrics (which themselves are arguably outmoded), while I come from old-school Sabermetrics of the 1980s. So I've been working on my own system which is now ready to move from GAMMA to BETA format, and thus is ready to be shared with a wider audience.

For teams, I focus on the five tools of baseball players, plus my own relief preferences. So I assess batting points by hitting for power, getting on base (which replaces hitting for average) and baserunning. For fielding I go for range and arm, using UZR. For relievers I want to watch teams that don't change pitchers too often, who work fast and who leave runners on base. For pitchers, who receive an individual score, I look at the ability to work fast, to induce swings at pitches outside the zone, who miss bats, and who succeed at keeping walks and home runs down. Basically, I thought about the Leverage Index, and tried to emphasise those player skills that contribute to raising the leverage of a plate appearance for hitters, and reducing it for fielders and pitchers.

Everything is converted to the 20-80 scouting scale. 50 is the average score. Above 50 is more likely to be entertaining. Below 50 less so.

Here are today's Potentially Entertaining Game Scores (PEGS)

Atlanta vs Pittsburgh    70
Seattle vs Philadelphia  62
Detroit vs Tampa Bay     58
San Francisco vs Cubs    57
Kansas City vs Colorado  53
Cincinnati vs St Louis   50
Toronto vs Milwaukee     48
Cleveland vs Minnesota   46
Texas vs Miami           45
Angels vs Boston         45
Houston vs Yankees       45
Baltimore vs White Sox   45
Mets vs Oakland          43
Arizona vs Washington    42
San Diego vs Dodgers     42

Robbie Ray's Minor League Outings

So Robbie Ray has rejoined the Big Club, and is set to pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. We last saw him in May, when he followed two good outings against the Red Sox and the Twins with a bit of a confidence-wrecker versus the Rangers. How has he been doing since?

I like to use QMAX, a system developed in the days of the Big Bad baseball Annual, itself a lineal descendant of Bill James' old abstracts. QMAX is helpfully thought of as a means of distinguishing the varying quality of quality and non-quality starts. I have always found it especially useful in helping to understand minor-league outings, even though it was designed with Major-League statistics. It looks at two components of pitching, the ability to miss bats (stuff) and the ability to pitch in the zone (command). Outings are categorised by where they fall on a matrix, such as 'the Success Square', 'the Hit Hard region' and some don't fit into any category at all. The 'Power Precipice' is a zone where pitchers who successfully overpower hitters still find themselves teetering on the brink of a fall because they walk too many. For young players, that's a hopeful sign, because improved command will supplement good stuff. Here's a list of Robbie Ray's performances

27 May   Uncategorised
1 June   Hit Hard
12 June  Uncategorised
17 June  Uncategorised
22 June  Success Square/Power Precipice
27 June  Success Square
2 July   Uncategorised
7 July   Uncategorised
13 July  Hit Hard
20 July  Success Square
25 July  success Square
30 July  Hit Hard
4 August Success Square/Power precipice

Now what we know about minor-league baseball is that for pitchers, a lack of command at AAA will mean problems walking batters in the big leagues. We also know that AAA fielders aren't quite as good as major-league ones, so pitchers will suffer a few more hits than they might. In terms of hits given up, the Toledo Mud Hens look to be around league average.

The minor-league outings suggest that Ray is going to have some problems at the big-league level this time round. His command is wayward and he gives up too many hits to say he can get by on his stuff. His K/9 is really down this season, compared to when he was a National. In his uncategorised starts he is almost always let down by his walks. On the bright side, and something not measured in QMAX, is that he keeps the ball in the park. His HR/9 is 0.6 in AAA. If he can get a few "at 'em" balls, and continue to keep the ball in the park, he might serve as a useful stopgap for the Tigers in the present crisis. Tigers' fans need to keep an eye out for ground balls, and the Tigers turning the double play behind him. If that doesn't happen, the slack will have to be picked up by the hitters and the bullpen, and that hasn't been working out too well lately.

EarlyThoughts on Deadline Deals

The trade deadline day proved suitably dramatic. Here is a roundup of my thoughts on the deals involving the teams I keep an eye on.

David Price for Drew Smyly, Austin Jackson and Will Adames I don't think one can analyse this deal properly without taking into account the deal in the offseason that sent Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals, the decline of Justin Verlander and contract negotiations with Max Scherzer. Smyly didn't quite step into Fister's shoes, while the other two elements have put the Tigers in a position of not having more than one plausible candidate for #1 Ace status for 2015, after several years of having two. Trading for Price is a signal to Scherzer that the Tigers are re-tooling for a Scherzer-less future, and puts pressure on Scherzer to think carefully about whether his chances for post-season play may be as good for more dollars elsewhere. But, my goodness, it will take deep pockets to sign both Price and Scherzer.

Having said that, my own impression is that Price may be, as I suggested about Joakim Soria, a player whom the Tigers are getting possibly as he has passed his best. He did not start the season well, although he has come on strong subsequently. Furthermore, I don't like the effect that trading Jackson will have on the Tigers' outfield defence. Verlander, who already has problems, and the newly acquired Price may in particular suffer (although possibly not as much as Scherzer, which further adds to my view that some of this trade is about Scherzer). While Adames was showing promise, the presence of Jose Iglesias and Eugenio Salazar in the organisation meant the Tigers had the depth to deal away a good prospect. Overall, though, I think this trade did not particularly strengthen the team for 2014, but has made it worse in the medium term, if only a little bit. (But a lot if the Tigers cannot sign either of Price or Scherzer.)

Asdrubal Cabrera for Zach Walters This deal is about... well, it is really about hitting. The Nationals have had great difficulty driving in runs for most of the season, and Cabrera ought to make that aspect of their game better. But the deal is really about injuries. I don't think there would be a problem with Anthony Rendon at second base and Ryan Zimmerman at third base and Danny Espinosa on the bench, but the Z-Man can't stay in the field, and the Nationals are really not as good a team without him. I'm not at all convinced that a mid-season shift is going to be as painless for the Nationals' infield defence as some people think. I see the potential for major improvement for 2014 here, at no major cost to the medium-term outlook.

The Marlins' Six-Player Swap with the Astros This is the most appealing trade of the day for me. Jarred Cosart gives the Marlins some depth to the rotation, an area they have been lacking in this season. Enrique Hernandez and Andrew Wates are interesting prospects, and I do wonder if Hernandez is going to move to second base, a la Cabrera with the Nationals. I view both Jake Marisnick and Colin Moran as prospects with busty tendencies. Francis Martes is too far away right now for a team that has an outside chance at something in the immediate future not too gamble on giving away for pieces that might strengthen that chance. I see upgrades for the Marlins all round, here.

Joakim Soria a Tiger?

I just saw a tweet from @RobertMurrayMLB about a rumour that Joakim Soria was to become a Tiger. Let's do a quick-n-dirty comparison of what he might offer the Tigers in one particular area. The comparison is with closer Joe Nathan.

Four Seamer, Soria 140%, Nathan 40%
Slider Soria 161%, Nathan 56%
Curve Soria 112%, Nathan 32%
change Soria 89%, Nathan 0%
Sinker Nathan 48%

BrooksBaseball.net can show you how many times a pitch is 'whiffed' (swung on and missed), which becomes the whiff percentage. A league-average rate for a four-seam fastball is 16% whiffed. Soria's four-seamer is 40 per cent better than that, while batters only whiff on 6 or so of every hundred of Nathan's four-seamers. Soria's four-seamer, slider and curve are all better than league average, while all of Nathan's offerings are worse than average. Soria has the potential to improve greatly the Tigers' closer capability.

Now, having said that, a warning — Soria's performance has declined sharply this month, compared to the rest of the season. Tigers fans should hope that he reverts to his performances earlier in the season.

2014 Marlins' Hitters' Batted Balls in Review #1

For reasons I hope to explain at some point later on, I am returning some comment on the Miami Marlins to this blog. I am quite enthusiastic about the information in my batted balls' surveys, so I'll resume coverage with a look at these.

This review uses a method involving batted balls to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.

wRC    BBXR
Giancarlo  Stanton        76    57    19
Marcell  Ozuna            50    37    13
Christian  Yelich         50    41    13
Jarrod  Saltalamacchia    31    28     3
Henderson  Alvarez         2     3   - 1
Rafael  Furcal             1     3   - 2
Greg  Dobbs              - 1     1   - 2
Casey  McGehee            58    61   - 3
Derek  Dietrich           21    24   - 3
Jeff  Baker               14    18   - 4
Jeff  Mathis               8    12   - 4
Jake  Marisnick            0     4   - 4
Reed  Johnson             12    17   - 5
Donovan  Solano           11    16   - 5
Garrett  Jones            41    47   - 6
Ed  Lucas                 10    16   - 6
Adeiny  Hechavarria       27    39   -12

Stanton's offensive contribution to the team has been splendid this season, but he's been hitting a bit over his head. Ozuna and Yelich have also been exceeding reasonable expectations. By contrast Hechavarria has struggled to get his maximum hitting value. But what really interests me in comparing the Marlins to the other two teams I have been looking at, is how the sort of range which falls within what I would consider random variation is largely negative for the marlins. Only Saltalamacchia has been doing a little bit better. This could be a harbinger of a slight improvement in the Marlins' offensive fortunes, provided those first three hitters keep having such good fortune.

2014 Nationals' Fielding Review #6

Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers. My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com

Player              UZR    Change    RZR   Change    LgAverage      DRA    Change   PFr
Lobaton (C)         n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        7.0     +0.6   -1.7
Ramos (C)           n/a      --      n/a     ---         n/a        5.7     +1.3   -2.0
Span (CF)          -0.4     +1.5    .934    +.016       .923        2.6     +2.9    n/a
Espinosa (2B)       0.1     -1.1    .788    +.004       .788        5.7     +2.1    n/a
LaRoche (1B)       -1.9     +2.4    .800    +.004       .807      - 8.0      ---    n/a
Harper (LF)        -1.3     +0.1    .872    +.023       .871      - 5.5     -2.1    n/a
Desmond (SS)       -2.3     +0.3    .803    +.005       .793      -10.8     -0.4    n/a
Werth (RF)         -4.5     -2.9    .933    +.004       .895      - 8.6     -3.5    n/a
Rendon (3B)         0.4     +0.7    .699    -.006       .708        2.4     +1.4    n/a
Zimmerman (LF)      0.4     ---     .905    +.003       .871        0.6     -1.6    n/a
Rendon (2B)         2.0     ---     .857     ---        .788      - 8.0     ---     n/a 
minimum 180 innings

By UZR Denard Span continues to improve, by exactly the same amount as last time. Danny Espinosa gave back all of his UZR improvement from the last review. Span and Anthony Rendon at third are the two players seen as improving both by the traditional statistics of DRA and by the play-by-play analysis of UZR. The only player losing ground under both systems was Jayson Werth. Rendon is now in the list as a secondbaseman as well as a thirdbaseman. Ryan Zimmerman at third just missed the cut.

Overall, both systems see the Nationals as seemingly having to found their level for the season. UZR adds up to a 0.7 increase, which is probably indicative of random variaton. DRA, including catchers, sees an identical improvement. UZR adds up the Nationals' regular fielders to -7.8, or costing the team about three-quarters of a win. DRA sees matters almost twice as bad, with -16.9 runs, or almost two wins. However, one probably ought to double the UZR total to get a better idea of the team's fielding over an entire season.

Wilson Ramos' pitch framing went down las time by 2.5 runs and this time by 1.4 runs. Jose Lobaton also slipped a bit, losing 0.4 runs, giving back some of his improvement last time. So, overall, the Nationals' catchers haven't been able to get the calls during this past two weeks or so.
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* These are available at the Baseball Gauge of Seamheads.com. Humphreys wrote the excellent Wizardry, which is a way of looking at fielding using only the traditional statistics, and not the newfangled play-by-play metrics.