Monday, 25 August 2014

25 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The day's top pitching match-up, John Lackey vs Francisco Liriano, carries the key National League Central Division clash to the top of the day's chart. Tracking the playoff odds each day, one can see how much a single pairing of results makes one realise a race is much closer than it might feel. The Blue Jays lost quite a bit of ground over the weekend, although their odds were never good. Thus, both their game with the Red Sox and the game between the Rockies and the Giants start out with the same potential entertainment score, but once one adjusts for relative positions in the race, where the Giants remain on the cusp of the second wild-card spot, the Blue Jays' game falls five points in value. Running off a solid winning streak would probably help the Blue Jays immensely at this point.

St Louis vs Pittsburgh      59
Texas vs Seattle            58
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
Yankees vs Royals           57
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      48
Boston vs Toronto           46
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Oakland vs Houston          44
Miami vs Angels             44
Washington vs Philadelphia  42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

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