This review uses a method involving batted balls to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.
As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.
What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.
wRC BBXR Giancarlo Stanton 76 57 19 Marcell Ozuna 50 37 13 Christian Yelich 50 41 13 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 31 28 3 Henderson Alvarez 2 3 - 1 Rafael Furcal 1 3 - 2 Greg Dobbs - 1 1 - 2 Casey McGehee 58 61 - 3 Derek Dietrich 21 24 - 3 Jeff Baker 14 18 - 4 Jeff Mathis 8 12 - 4 Jake Marisnick 0 4 - 4 Reed Johnson 12 17 - 5 Donovan Solano 11 16 - 5 Garrett Jones 41 47 - 6 Ed Lucas 10 16 - 6 Adeiny Hechavarria 27 39 -12
Stanton's offensive contribution to the team has been splendid this season, but he's been hitting a bit over his head. Ozuna and Yelich have also been exceeding reasonable expectations. By contrast Hechavarria has struggled to get his maximum hitting value. But what really interests me in comparing the Marlins to the other two teams I have been looking at, is how the sort of range which falls within what I would consider random variation is largely negative for the marlins. Only Saltalamacchia has been doing a little bit better. This could be a harbinger of a slight improvement in the Marlins' offensive fortunes, provided those first three hitters keep having such good fortune.