2012 Game 27 NATITUDE Series

Highest Leverage PA:         2.6, PA #41, Harper F7 vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
                             2.6, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .320, PA #42, Werth HR vs Worley, Nationals' 5th.
Lowest Opp Clutch Value:    -.047, PA #7, Galvis F6 vs Gonzalez, Phillies 2nd.
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,2) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Werth          0.245
Lombardozzi    0.189
Ankiel         0.161
Tracy          0.058
Gonzalez       0.056
Desmond       -0.031
Espinosa      -0.054
Ramos         -0.099
Harper        -0.129

Here's a game where the usefulness of the Leverage Index in assigning value is readily apparent. Jayson Werth's 5th inning home run boosted the Nationals' chances of winning by 64 per cent. Ian Desmond's and Chad Tracy's homers only by 5 per cent each. The difference is context. Werth's fence-clearer came with the Nationals down by a run in the 5th. The Nationals were up by three in the bottom of the 6th when Desmond's blast occurred. Tracy's came with the Nationals up by four in the 7th. Basically, leverage tells us that a home team with a three-run lead after six innings, is very likely to win the game already. There just aren't enough PAs left for the visitors to get the two or three rallies they need to make up the difference.

2012 Game 26 NATITUDE Series

A busy weekend got in the way of my being able to blog. By the time the Nationals play again, de civitate sabermetricarum will be caught up PLUS with the long-promised batting rankings in place.

Highest Leverage PA:         6.4, PA #91, Ramos 1B vs Schwimmer, Nationals' 11th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .357, PA #66, Flores 2B vs Qualls, Nationals' 8th.
Lowest Clutch Value:        -.096, PA #73, Galvez F7 vs Rodriguez, Phillies 9th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (2,3) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Ramos          0.333
Flores         0.236
Tracy          0.230
Ankiel         0.164
Bernadina      0.058
Nady           0.030
Harper         0.028
Strasburg     -0.016
Espinosa      -0.032
Lombardozzi   -0.044
Moore         -0.060
Werth         -0.172
Desmond       -0.354

ALL HAIL PINCH HITTERS! They earned a .421 Leveraged Win Value (a/k/a 'clutch hitting') for the Nationals in this game, with Ramos, Bernadina and Nady all contributing. A team only needs a .500 value to win a game, at least on paper, so the pinch hitters basically did it all themselves. It may come as a surprise that Flores' double in the sixth out-clutched Bernadina's game-winning blow in the 11th, but it goes back to what I was saying about how when the home team ties the game in late innings, it puts home-field advantage into play. The bullpen also played an important role, but no individual stood out. Poor Ian Desmond's recent surge was unceremoniously halted in a long game. Those fielder's choices in the 6th and 8th really hurt

2012 Game 25

Highest Leverage PA:         2.9, PA #59, Upton F8 vs Rodriguez, D'backs' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .139, PA #43, Harper 2B vs Kennedy, Nationals' 6th.
Lowest Clutch Value:        -.114, PA #31, Pollock GDP vs Detilwer, D'backs' 5th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (2,4) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:               Hero's Palm for Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Harper         0.105
Desmond        0.061
Ankiel         0.027
Werth          0.013
Tracy         -0.013
Bernadina     -0.016
Detwiler      -0.053
Espinosa      -0.094
Ramos         -0.094
Lombardozzi   -0.096

This game was a pitching victory. Not only did Ross Detwiler put in another above-average start for a FIFTH STARTER (who normally are the dregs of the starting rotation), but three successive pitchers came out of the bullpen in highish-leverage situations and navigated to successful conclusions. Ryan Mattheus broke new ground by being brought in with the Leverage Index registering 2.3. this is his highest reading of the season so far, and suggests that Davey Johnson has developed a lot of confidence in him. Henry Rodriguez faced the highest leverage of any reliever, and acquitted himself nicely.

Will Rodriguez get an outing if a save situation arises tonight? He has pitched two days in a row.

2012 Game 24

Highest Leverage PA:         5.2, PA #71, Desmond HR vs Putz, Nationals' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .640, PA #71, Desmond HR vs Putz, Nationals' 9th.
QMAX rating:                 None (5,3) for Jackson.
Bullpen Award:               Hero's Palm for Stammen.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Desmond        0.594
Harper         0.310
Werth          0.126
Lombardozzi    0.083
Ramos         -0.025
Jackson       -0.041
Moore         -0.068
Nady          -0.075
Espinosa      -0.133
Ankiel        -0.135
LaRoche       -0.197

Pity poor Ian Desmond, who has bust out of a slump. The last two days his Leveraged Win (or 'Clutch') Values with the bat have been in positive territory for the first time in a while. Yet all the headline attention has gone to Bryce Harper. Well, he's taking it for the team, I'm sure.

As you can see, the game was won by the bats for a change. The only thing I'd point out is that Stammen's fine two-inning stint produced a good chunk of value, too. So he gets a Hero's Palm.

2012 Game 23

Highest Leverage PA:         3.1, PA #45, Ankiel GDP vs Cahill, Nationals' 6th.
                             3.1, PA #61, Cahill GDP vs Mattheus, D'backs' 8th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .120, PA #44, Lombardozzi 1B vs Cahill, Nats' 6th.
QMAX rating:                 Soldier of Fortune (6,2) for Zimmermann.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Lombardozzi    0.099
Desmond        0.073
Bernadina      0.026
Werth          0.025
Zimmermann    -0.043
Harper        -0.071
Espinosa      -0.074
Ramos         -0.077
LaRoche       -0.104
Ankiel        -0.293

This loss was the most disconcerting one of the season so far, at least for me. As the Leveraged PA and 'Clutch' Value numbers indicate, the Nationals lost the game in the sixth inning, when Cahill induced Ankiel's double play ball. (Ankiel's horrible Leveraged Win Value is largely made up of the -.208 value accrued in this single plate appearance.) That was followed by the disastrous Diamondbacks' 7th, when an intentional walk came back to bite the Nationals in the nether parts. At the moment, four runs is an insurmountable lead for the level of offense the Nationals are achieving.

A note on Zimmermann's QMAX rating — To quote the fabled Big Bad Baseball Annual, the Soldier of Fortune outing is the kind 'where pitchers with exceptional control can work effectively despite giving up more hits than innings pitched'. That is to say, Zimmermann pitched well enough to entertain the possiblity of a win, although not the likelihood. It is, as it were, the geographical antipode of the Power Precipice.

2012 Game 22

Highest Leverage PA:         3.3, PA #46, Loney 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .172, PA #46, Londy 1b vs Gonzalez, Dodgers' 6th.
Highest Nats' Clutch Value:  .073, PA #21, Desmond 2B vs Capuano, Nationals' 4th.
QMAX rating:                 Power Precipice (2,5) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

LaRoche        0.032
Moore          0.026
Harper        -0.007
Desmond       -0.014
Lombardozzi   -0.024
Ankiel        -0.041
Gonzalez      -0.043
Tracy         -0.059
Espinosa      -0.068
Flores        -0.170
Nady          -0.190

So the Nationals finished a six-game western road trip going 2-4. We have got a better measure of the team after this, as we can see that the problem is that they do not have enough offense to carry a playoff-calibre pitching staff into the post-season. It could be a team-wide slump, but for this particular game I question Davey Johnson's lineup. migraine led to Jayson Werth being a late scratch, which is the sort of thing that can't be helped, but Danny Espinosa is not the player I would have put in his place at #3. I would have gone with either "Country" (as opposed to "Mary") Tyler Moore or Bryce Harper, and probably Moore. The fact is, though Gio Gonzalez fell off the Power Precipice in the sixth, he still pitched well enough for a win, if he had the hitters to back him up.

2012 Game 21

Highest Leverage event: 7.4, PA #74, Uribe scores on wild pitch, Dodgers' 9th.
Highest Leverage PA:    5.7, PA #74, Kennedy FC vs Rodriguez, Dodgers' 9th.
Highest Leveraged Win Value: .363, PA #72, Uribe vs Rodriguez, Dodgers' 9th.
Highest Nats' Lev Win Value: .178, PA #44, LaRoche HR vs Billingsley, Nats' 7th.
QMAX rating:                 Elite Square (2,1) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:               Goat's Horns for Henry Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

LaRoche        0.239
Ramos          0.096
Espinosa       0.069
Strasburg      0.019
Harper         0.013
Tracy          0.003
Ankiel        -0.023
Werth         -0.124
Lombardozzi   -0.181
Desmond       -0.204

An unmitigated disaster. Taking into account the leverage index and the win value of the event, Uribe's scoring on a wild pitch was worth more to the Dodgers than Kemp's game-winning home run. The reason for this is that this event made it more likely that the Dodgers would win the game in the end. That's the way leverage works — it helps identify the turning point of the game. Home teams have the advantage, especially in extra innings. Once the game was tied, the odds favoured the Dodgers.