2012 Game 44

Highest Leverage PA:     3.1, PA#58 Zimmerman 2B vs Hudson, Nationals 7th.
Highest WPA/LI Value:    .115, PA #7, Ankiel 3B vs Hudson, Nationals 1st
QMAX rating:             (5,5) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' WPA/LI Values:

Zimmerman      0.094
Ankiel         0.092
Desmond        0.069
Wang           0.020
Tracy          0.000
Harper        -0.013
Flores        -0.020
Lombardozzi   -0.036
Detwiler      -0.045
Espinosa      -0.073
LaRoche       -0.144

And this one belongs to the Nationals' hitting. I don't count this as Detwiler's worst outing, because he didn't give up many hits. His command (or the umpire's strike zone) deserted him in this game as he gave up more walks than innings pitched. Also, is the #5 starter now going to be by committee?

Having lamented the lack of a sequential offense in my last game digest, we were treated to two examples of that in this game, with single, double, single, hit by pitch and triple producing four runs in the first. Then, in the seventh, two walks and two doubles added another three runs. Zimmerman's doubles in both of these innings helped him top the WPA/LI list. And this happened against a good team (although the Reds have been looking a bit better of late)! This game filled me with hope in the way the series against the Orioles triggered some unhappy flashbacks.

2012 Game 35

Highest Leverage PA:     4.2, PA #78, Guzman GDP vs Burnett, Padres' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:    .165, PA #56, Desmond 2B vs Mikoleas, Nationals' 6th.
Lowest Opp. Clutch Val:  -.218, PA #78, Guzman GDP vs Burnett, Padres' 9th.
QMAX rating:             Hit Hard (6,3) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:           Hero's Palm for Burnett.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Desmond        0.234
Zimmerman      0.169
Bernadina      0.135
Flores         0.081
Tracy          0.062
Ankiel         0.041
Nady          -0.007
Stammen       -0.024
Leon          -0.032
Detwiler      -0.042
Harper        -0.084
Espinosa      -0.108
LaRoche       -0.149

This was a very good result for the Nationals. They turned around from a heartbreaker in Cincinnati, went the next evening with not much rest after a night of travel to play in unpleasant conditions, and hung on in a ding-dong battle until they came out the winners. It speaks a lot of the character of this team. Unlike a lot of sabermetrically minded types, I put some value on what can't be measured, because in results like this, though we can't measure it, we can see it on display. Furthermore, it wasn't just one player who carried the team, but an effort involving the top and the bottom of the lineup, and even the chaps off the bench.

A word, though, about Ross Detwiler. I've been very excited about his start to this season, but it is a bad time for him to suffer a bit of a slump, with Wang's return from the disabled list closer every day. Although he continues to exhibit exemplary control, he has got knocked around a bit in his last two starts. I'm just a little worried.

2012 Game 30

Highest Leverage PA:         6.8, PA #63, Ankiel K vs Grilli, Nationals' 8th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .145, PA #70, Desmond 2B vs Hanrahan, Nats' 9th.
QMAX rating:                 Success square (4,2) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Desmond        0.144
Nady           0.123
LaRoche        0.052
Lombardozzi    0.029
Tracy         -0.012
Detwiler      -0.027
Ramos         -0.031
Moore         -0.056
Espinosa      -0.081
Zimmerman     -0.088
Harper        -0.212
Ankiel        -0.236

Ross Detwiler put in yet another quality quality start, although it was his worst outing since 15 April. Despite that, the Nationals' bats couldn't come through before Detwiler left the game. Indeed, this game was another example of the Nationals lineup being unable to create a league-average number of runs for a game. It might be easy to point a finger at Ian Desmond's brain-cramp in the Pirates' 3rd inning, as being at fault, but then where does that leave McCutchen's home run in the Pirates' 8th? Desmond, in fact, did sterling work with the bat. If I was to point an accusing finger anywhere, it would be at the disaster of the Nationals' 8th inning. Not a single run was scored then. Bad show, chaps.

2012 Game 25

Highest Leverage PA:         2.9, PA #59, Upton F8 vs Rodriguez, D'backs' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:        .139, PA #43, Harper 2B vs Kennedy, Nationals' 6th.
Lowest Clutch Value:        -.114, PA #31, Pollock GDP vs Detilwer, D'backs' 5th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (2,4) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:               Hero's Palm for Rodriguez.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

Harper         0.105
Desmond        0.061
Ankiel         0.027
Werth          0.013
Tracy         -0.013
Bernadina     -0.016
Detwiler      -0.053
Espinosa      -0.094
Ramos         -0.094
Lombardozzi   -0.096

This game was a pitching victory. Not only did Ross Detwiler put in another above-average start for a FIFTH STARTER (who normally are the dregs of the starting rotation), but three successive pitchers came out of the bullpen in highish-leverage situations and navigated to successful conclusions. Ryan Mattheus broke new ground by being brought in with the Leverage Index registering 2.3. this is his highest reading of the season so far, and suggests that Davey Johnson has developed a lot of confidence in him. Henry Rodriguez faced the highest leverage of any reliever, and acquitted himself nicely.

Will Rodriguez get an outing if a save situation arises tonight? He has pitched two days in a row.

2012 Game 20

Highest Leverage PA:         2.9, PA #67, DeRosa F8 vs Jansen, Nationals' 9th.
                             2.9, PA #70 Flores' K vs Jansen, Nationals' 9th
Highest Leveraged Win Value: .209, PA #43, LaRoche HR vs Kershaw, Nationals' 6th.
QMAX rating:                 Success Square (3,3) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:               None.

Batters' Leveraged Win Values:

LaRoche        0.209
Tracy          0.044
Detwiler       0.027
Bernadina     -0.035
Lombardozzi   -0.067
Espinosa      -0.071
Werth         -0.072
Nady          -0.074
Desmond       -0.118
Flores        -0.125
DeRosa        -0.172

Let's start with a bold, optimistic statement: the Nationals are half of a playoff team. That half is the pitching. Think about this — the club's designated FIFTH STARTER held his own against one of the BEST PITCHERS IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE. Ross Detwiler has pitched nothing like a typical fifth starter so far this season, and he has kept his team in the game in almost every outing. Take a moment to give him a pat on the back.

Ryan Mattheus did well, although not enough to earn a Hero's Palm. The reason is down to the batters. I'm not going to dwell on that. I'm sure they are working hard at making adjustments. They got fairly close last night, just fell a bit short. Against a player of the calibre of Clayton Kershaw, that's what can happen. However, against lesser mortals they need to get it done, and then we can all look forward to games in September that are not just meaningful opportunities to play the role of spoiler.