Tigers 2014 Games 73, 74, 75: verrunt in Texas

The Tigers began their Texas tour with a visit to the Ballpark at Arlington, possibly my least favourite ballpark in the major leagues, with its pastiche approach to architectural design. They came away with three victories, led by the bats of Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez. The starting pitching was solid, with an excellent start from Rick Porcello, but the bullpen again suffered ugly moments, with both Joe Nathan and Al Alburquerque giving cause for concern in Game 74 (25th June). From here it was on to Houston, to face an Astros team that wasn't playing with quite the verve it had in late May and early June.

QMAX ratings:   (3,3) for Smyly (Success Square)
                (5,3) for Sanchez (Uncategorised)
                (1,2) for Porcello (Elite Square)

Bullpen Awards: None

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values: 
Kinsler       0.285
V-Mart        0.230
Avila         0.066
Suarez        0.061
Davis         0.054
Jackson       0.029
JD-Mart       0.005
Cabrera       0.004
Holaday      -0.018
Castellanos  -0.049
Hunter       -0.111

Tigers 2014 Game 28: Radius a Sole?

Highest Leverage PA:     1.8, PA#46, Carter reach on e4 vs Ray, Astros' 6th.
Highest LI Win Value:    .117, PA#52, Dominguez GDP vs Reed, Astros' 7th.
QMAX rating:             (3,3) for Ray (Success Square).
Bullpen Award:           None.

Batters' Aggregate LI Win Values:

Worth          0.060
Kinsler        0.049
Cabrera        0.047
V Martinez     0.041
Castellanos    0.018
Avila          0.011
Jackson        0.001
Hunter        -0.002
JD Martinez   -0.060

There was a higher-leveraged event than PA#46, which was when Jason Castro was put out at 2B following Ian Kinsler's drop of Chris Carter's pop-up in the sixth.

The question that arises for Nationals' fans is whether the Nationals will miss Robbie Ray in the long run. Was the trade for Doug Fister really worth it? We are in no position to give any kind of definitive answer after one big-league start. All we can do is assess the effect the trade had on the Nationals' farm system. Without doubt losing Ray weakened the Nationals' farm system. One notes the next two left-handers on the Baseball America prospect list have the following written about them in the Prospect Handbook:

Solis: "Staying healthy has been an issue for Solis since college days...[he] has a chance to be a No 4 starter in the majors."

Purke: Purke has lost prospect lustre...he still has a chance to become a back-end starter if he can harness his command."

Sammy Solis is showing on MiLB.com as on the disabled list still, having suffered a back injury. The most recent report on his health I can find is an early April Baseball America report. Matt Purke's ERA in AA currently stands at 7.18. QMAXing his AA starts this season produces 3 Uncategorised, 2 Hit Hard and 1 Success Square outing. The Success Square credit was earned in his last start, on 7 May, so perhaps we can take some heart from that.

If you haven't already seen it, there is a good article about Ray's outing on Fangraphs. What's really interesting is that author Jeff Sullivan notes that Ray has scrapped plans for a slider and is working on a curve ball. The Tigers under Dave Dombrowski have put a lot of emphasis on power fastball-slider pitching. Ray currently represents a departure from that. Also, if you missed the Tigers' radio broadcast of the game, we learned that Ray popped up on the Tigers' radar after an outing against their AA farm club at Erie last season. The Ray trade looks like one that was planned for a long time which, given the Dombrowski's track record, is not necessarily bad news for the Nationals.