Sunday 22 April 2012

Rip Van Winkle Day: Wild Card Nationals?

Well, I'm going to resume a probably-erratic posting schedule for the 2012 season. There are some good reasons why I stopped posting, not many of which had to do with the last post. Some of them will come out in subsequent blogs.

I have resumed doing old-fashioned sabermetric analysis this season of the Nationals, with some of your old Big Bad Baseball Annual ideas such as QMAX. In due course I'll be updating some of the data I used to keep. The Bullpen Goat of The Day no longer applies, I'm delighted to report.

In the meantime, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog (RLYW) has for a few years now run some simulated seasons to project what the math suggests is going to happen when we get to the end of game 162, using player projections. RLYW has just updated their preseason projections with the results of the first three weeks of this season. The big news is that the results show the Nationals as one of the newfangled Wild Cards. Getting into at least a one-game playoff would do something for the morale of the long-suffering Washington baseball fan, wouldn't it?

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