Here comes Bryce Harper.
With Ryan Zimmerman going on the disabled list, the already-lightweight Nationals' batting lineup faced the loss of a key player, at least in terms of potential. (Zimmerman's slash line was not exactly helping, at 224/324/345, and my concerns were mounting.) NadyRosa are being pushed beyond legitimate expectations of two players who look satisfactory down at 6 or 7 in the batting order, but not so hot going in at #3.
The Nationals are having a great start, and now face an opponent having almost an equally great start. If Harper was going to be promoted at some point this season, this is as good a time as any, no matter how well he is doing at AAA. If he can keep the momentum going, it will add to the Mystique and Aura of Harper. If not, he's got a taste, and maybe will work harder for the next opportunity.
Friday, 27 April 2012
2012 Game 19 Notes
Highest Leverage PA: 5.9, PA #57, Hundley's K vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
(Also, Lowest Leveraged Win Value at -.159)
Highest Leveraged Win Value: .337, PA #64, Kotsay's 2B vs Clippard, Padres' 8th.
Nationals' Highest Lev Win: .148, PA #49, Werth's HR vs Volquez, Nationals' 7th.
QMAX rating: Success Square (3,4) for Jackson.
Bullpen Award: Goat's Horns for Clippard.
Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche 0.048 Werth 0.030 Ramos 0.027 Bernadina -0.018 Jackson -0.055 Ankiel -0.064 Nady -0.064 Desmond -0.104 Tracy -0.109 Espinosa -0.147It is easy to point the finger at poor Tyler Clippard, who saved the day in the 7th inning, for blowing the game in the 8th. But, seriously, as the Batting Leveraged Win Values show, my Finger of Blame for yesterday's loss points squarely at the Nationals' hitters. The top of the order in particular—Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa and Chad Tracy—had a very poor game, as the numbers show. The bullpen's job is to hold a lead, even one as slim as one run, but a couple of years of messing about with Win Probability has taught me that to expect the bullpen to hold such slim leads game after game is a recipe for a .500 season.
Thursday, 26 April 2012
2012 Game 18 notes
Highest Leverage PA: 2.9 PA #48, Hermida vs Zimmermann, Padres' 6th. Highest Leveraged Win Value: .135, PA #54, LaRoche vs Spence, Nationals' 7th. QMAX rating: Elite Square (2,2) for Zimmermann. Bullpen Award: NoneBatters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche 0.234 DeRosa 0.059 Werth 0.053 Ramos 0.036 Bernadina 0.023 Gorzelanny 0.016 Ankiel 0.012 Espinosa 0.010 Desmond 0.007 Lombardozzi -0.031 Tracy -0.050The result was never really in doubt, as the relatively low leverage of Hermida vs Zimmermann indicates. The bats came alive for this one, as a cumulative win value total of .369 for the batters shows. Nonetheless, Zimmermann's great outing (not a walk!) was of considerable value as well. Gorzelanny fell a few points short of the threshold for a Hero's Palm, given the five-run lead that Zimmermann and the hitters gave him.
Wednesday, 25 April 2012
2012 Game 17 Notes
Highest Leverage PA: 4.3 PA #56, Denorfia vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
Highest Leveraged Win Value: .187, PA #54, Perino vs Clippard, Padres' 7th.
Highest Lev Win Val for Nats: .130, PA #49, Tracy vs Richard, Nationals' 7th.
Lowest Lev Win Val for Nats: -.121, PA #3, DeRosa vs Richard, Nationals' 1st.
QMAX rating: Success Square (1,3) for Gonzalez.
Bullpen Award: Hero's Palm to Clippard, for gaining .142 on Win
Probability
Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Tracy 0.130 Ankiel 0.055 Nady 0.047 Ramos 0.022 Werth -0.015 Bernadina -0.026 Desmond -0.033 Espinosa -0.042 LaRoche -0.05 Lombardozzi -0.068 Gonzalez -0.081 DeRosa -0.141Mark DeRosa's grounding into a double play in the top of first set the tone for this pitcher's duel. The crucial inning on both sides was the seventh, and for both teams the outcome of the game may have turned on bullpen usage. Bud Black may have been too slow in pulling Clayton Richard, while Davey Johnson wasted no time in taking Craig Stammen out when things turned a bit bad for him.
Sunday, 22 April 2012
Rip Van Winkle Day: Wild Card Nationals?
Well, I'm going to resume a probably-erratic posting schedule for the 2012 season. There are some good reasons why I stopped posting, not many of which had to do with the last post. Some of them will come out in subsequent blogs.
I have resumed doing old-fashioned sabermetric analysis this season of the Nationals, with some of your old Big Bad Baseball Annual ideas such as QMAX. In due course I'll be updating some of the data I used to keep. The Bullpen Goat of The Day no longer applies, I'm delighted to report.
In the meantime, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog (RLYW) has for a few years now run some simulated seasons to project what the math suggests is going to happen when we get to the end of game 162, using player projections. RLYW has just updated their preseason projections with the results of the first three weeks of this season. The big news is that the results show the Nationals as one of the newfangled Wild Cards. Getting into at least a one-game playoff would do something for the morale of the long-suffering Washington baseball fan, wouldn't it?
I have resumed doing old-fashioned sabermetric analysis this season of the Nationals, with some of your old Big Bad Baseball Annual ideas such as QMAX. In due course I'll be updating some of the data I used to keep. The Bullpen Goat of The Day no longer applies, I'm delighted to report.
In the meantime, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog (RLYW) has for a few years now run some simulated seasons to project what the math suggests is going to happen when we get to the end of game 162, using player projections. RLYW has just updated their preseason projections with the results of the first three weeks of this season. The big news is that the results show the Nationals as one of the newfangled Wild Cards. Getting into at least a one-game playoff would do something for the morale of the long-suffering Washington baseball fan, wouldn't it?
Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Breaking a Wand
The firestorm over Rob Dibble's comments on Strasburg's injury scare has simply underlined for me the fact that I can no longer be a fan of the Nationals' franchise so long as they employ Mr Dibble. This isn't the first time my support for the Expos/Nationals has been strained by off-field events, but I don't need to tell Washington fans that it's quite an awkward time when the team you love changes cities.
Federal Baseball published part of a response by Mr Dibble to the alarm expressed by bloggers at his remarks. In it, Mr Dibble appears intelligent, articulate and well-informed. If only he could avoid 'simpleton speak' more frequently, I might have been able to take this latest example with more equanimity.
I've been having difficulty following baseball this season, one even more disrupted by work/personal life, than the last one. So perhaps I am overreacting on account of a more general ennui. Removing myself from the Nationals' blogosphere will not do it any damage at all. Regardless, if I write here about baseball, it won't be about the Nationals.
Federal Baseball published part of a response by Mr Dibble to the alarm expressed by bloggers at his remarks. In it, Mr Dibble appears intelligent, articulate and well-informed. If only he could avoid 'simpleton speak' more frequently, I might have been able to take this latest example with more equanimity.
I've been having difficulty following baseball this season, one even more disrupted by work/personal life, than the last one. So perhaps I am overreacting on account of a more general ennui. Removing myself from the Nationals' blogosphere will not do it any damage at all. Regardless, if I write here about baseball, it won't be about the Nationals.
Monday, 14 June 2010
Nationals' Fielding Review #2
Being five hours ahead of North America is making it difficult for me to keep up with the games, although that's partly because I have to help with homework and read bedtime stories, as well as going up to the University of London during the day.
Anyway, here is some fielding data. I've replaced the in-season cumulative UZR with Chris Dial's Defensive Runs Saved. You can find an explanation of what he's up to here. UZR/150 is the current UZR extrapolated to 150 games. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached.
Harper commented after the last fielding review on how we need more like three years' data to get a sense of a player's talent as a fielder. This is true, but one of my old-fashioned sabermetric principles is that we should be more interested, as fans, in what happened rather than what we can expect to happen. Over three years, Dunn might turn out to be the worst first-baseman in the league. However, for the moment he's been doing better than I thought we had any right to expect. I'll keep singing praises for his effort and dedication so long as he keeps that up — and even if he starts having difficulties, because he's clearly trying his best. Jolly good show!
Anyway, here is some fielding data. I've replaced the in-season cumulative UZR with Chris Dial's Defensive Runs Saved. You can find an explanation of what he's up to here. UZR/150 is the current UZR extrapolated to 150 games. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached.
Player DRS Change UZR/150 Change RZR Change MLBaverage
Zimmerman (3B) 4 +2 24.7 +3.0 .755 +.008 .704
Desmond (SS) 3 -2 14.8 +0.2 .833 -.034 .811
Gonzalez (3b) 3 -1 44.0 -1.9 .882 +.007 .704
Maxwell (RF) 2 - 21.6 -6.1 .857 +.018 .885
Harris (RF) 0 - 13.3 -0.7 .852 +.044 .885
Kennedy (2b) 0 - - 4.8 -12.2 .800 -.039 .819
Guzmán (SS) 1 +1 8.9 +1.8 .750 -.017 .811
Willingham (LF) -2 - 5.8 +4.9 .880 +.021 .871
Guzmán (2B) 3 +3 - 2.6 +0.5 .839 +.022 .819
Dunn (1B) -2 +1 - 2.7 +2.4 .776 -.006 .772
Bernadina (RF) 1 +1 -11.3 +3.0 .915 +.015 .885
Morgan (CF) 0 -1 -11.8 +0.3 .883 +.009 .916
minimum 73 innings
Harper commented after the last fielding review on how we need more like three years' data to get a sense of a player's talent as a fielder. This is true, but one of my old-fashioned sabermetric principles is that we should be more interested, as fans, in what happened rather than what we can expect to happen. Over three years, Dunn might turn out to be the worst first-baseman in the league. However, for the moment he's been doing better than I thought we had any right to expect. I'll keep singing praises for his effort and dedication so long as he keeps that up — and even if he starts having difficulties, because he's clearly trying his best. Jolly good show!
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