Kyle Ryan's AAA Outings

Kyle Ryan has spent all of the month pitching at the AAA level, and today he makes the jump to the big leagues. What can those minor-league outings tell us about what we could expect to see against the White Sox?

I like to use QMAX, a system developed in the days of the Big Bad baseball Annual, itself a lineal descendant of Bill James' old abstracts. QMAX is helpfully thought of as a means of distinguishing the varying quality of quality and non-quality starts. I have always found it especially useful in helping to understand minor-league outings, even though it was designed with Major-League statistics. It looks at two components of pitching, the ability to miss bats (stuff) and the ability to pitch in the zone (command). Outings are categorised by where they fall on a matrix, such as 'the Success Square', 'the Hit Hard region' and some don't fit into any category at all. The 'Power Precipice' is a zone where pitchers who successfully overpower hitters still find themselves teetering on the brink of a fall because they walk too many. For young players, that's a hopeful sign, because improved command will supplement good stuff. By contrast, the Elite Square reflects the stingiest of pitchers in allowing chances for the opposition, and suggest a pitcher who is ready to try the next level. Here's a list of Kyle Ryan's performances at the AAA level.

2 August Elite Square
 8 August Elite Square
14 August Uncategorised
20 August Elite Square
25 August Success Square/Power Precipice

Now what we know about minor-league baseball is that for pitchers, a lack of command at AAA will mean problems walking batters in the big leagues. We also know that AAA fielders aren't quite as good as major-league ones, so pitchers will suffer a few more hits than they might. In terms of hits given up, the Toledo Mud Hens look to be around league average.

The AAA outings suggest that Ryan is ready to have a cup of coffee at the major-league level, as he has shown some ability at mastering AAA hitters. He is very good at keeping the ball in the strike zone, although it may be his success depends on being a little too crafty for major-league hitters (which is to say that they are harder to fool than minor-leaguers). His k/9s indicate he is a pitch-to-contact type, and his numbers at Erie (AA) might give a clearer idea of what we might expect in the hitter's park that the White Sox play in. There he gave up almost twice as many hits as he did at Toledo, and had an HR/9 of 1.1.
I suspect we'll see something on the order of 5 IP, 5 R, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 2 K. I'd settle for that.

2014 Tigers' Hitters' Batted Balls in Review #2

I haven't posted any of my batted ball or fielding surveys for quite a while, so I thought I'd start a new cycle with the Tigers, who have been most on my mind of late. This review uses a method involving batted balls to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs and the third the positive or negative difference.

J.D.  Martinez         60     41    +19
Victor  Martinez      91     78    +13
Alex  Avila           43     35    + 8
Miguel  Cabrera       87     81    + 6
Rajai  Davis          48     49    - 1
Torii  Hunter         59     60    - 1
Ezequiel  Carrera      3      4    - 1
Eugenio  Suarez       25     26    - 1
Tyler  Collins         0      1    - 1
Alex  Gonzalez         1      4    - 3
Bryan  Holaday         9     12    - 3
Danny  Worth           1      5    - 4
Andrew  Romine        12     20    - 8
Nick  Castellanos     52     60    - 8
Don  Kelly            13     23    -10 
Austin  Jackson       49     60    -11
Ian  Kinsler          68     91    -23

JD-Mart continues to be fortunate on the outcomes of his batted balls, although his luck has faded quite a bit. At the other end of the scale, Ian Kinsler has slumped quite a bit. Most of the other players have moved slightly up or down, although Victor Martinez has continued to hit above his batted-ball weight at about the same pace. I predicted last time that a slump might lead to a run production problem, which as I discussed earlier in fact happened after the All-Star break. I think it is important to note that Rajai Davis has been an adequate replacement for Austin Jackson with the bat — especially with such a strong showing from Eugenio Suarez at shortstop and slight improvement from Torii Hunter — but let's see what the fielding numbers tell us about his defence.

29 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

National League action reigns supreme for a change at the top, although the Nationals are going to have to play under American-League rules during their visit to Seattle. Those two teams have top-notch bullpens, one of the highest bullpen scores I've seen for a series. They also have the best pitching match-up of the day going for them, with blog favourite Jordan Zimmermann facing Felix Hernandez. The AL Central Division clash between Cleveland and Kansas City this weekend has a lot of potential for unsettling the playoff race. a sweep by Cleveland has the potential to bring several fringe teams, including the Indians, into the hunt for October. The match-up between Danny Salazar and Jason Vargas is not without its charms. Meanwhile, pity the poor Arizona Diamondbacks, once again at the bottom of the table, who send Josh Collmenter against Christian Bergman.

Milwaukee vs San Francisco  61
Washington vs Seattle       61
Cleveland vs Kansas City    58
Miami vs Atlanta            58
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh    54
Detroit vs White Sox        54
Cubs vs St Louis            50
Yankees vs Toronto          48
Oakland vs Angels           46
Minnesota vs Baltimore      45
Boston vs Tampa Bay         44
Philadelphia vs Mets        43
Texas vs Houston            43
Dodgers vs San Diego        42
Colorado vs Arizona         41

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

28 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

By virtue of its value in the race for the second Wild Card spot in the American League, this afternoon's game between the Yankees and the Tigers is potentially the most entertaining game of the day, by a little bit, over the game between the Rockies and the Giants. The Tigers once again have to draw on their minor-league reserves to send Kyle Lobstein out against Hiroki Kuroda. Overall, it is a mediocre, at best, day for marquee starting pitcher match-ups. Your best bet in this regard is, by a single point a surprising one — Collin McHugh vs Nick Tepesch, in the battle for Texas.

Yankees vs Detroit        60
Colorado vs San Francisco 57
Atlanta vs Mets           54
Minnesota vs Kansas City  53
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore    47
Cleveland vs White Sox    45
Oakland vs Angels         45
Texas vs Houston          43
Cubs vs Cincinnati        42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

27 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The order of today's games is almost identical to that of yesterday's, although Clayton Kershaw versus Wade Miley is a highly entertaining pitching match-up, pulling the Dodgers vs Arizona game up several places off the bottom. (I caught some of yesterday's game, which was no advertisement for the replay system.) Today's top pitching pair is in Detroit, where Shane Greene takes on David Price. However, if one includes bullpens in the calculation, you'll want to watch Atlanta versus the Mets.

Texas vs Seattle            60
Yankees vs Detroit          59
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
St Louis vs Pittsburgh      58
Minnesota vs Kansas City    54
Atlanta vs Mets             55
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      47
Cleveland vs White Sox      47
Miami vs Angels             45
Boston vs Toronto           45
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Dodgers vs Arizona          45
Oakland vs Houston          44
Washington vs Philadelphia  42
Cubs vs Cincinnati          43

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

Tigers 2014 Game 130: V-Mart vs McCarthy

Victor Martinez' duel with Brandon McCarthy last night showed exactly why baseball is a game of fine distinctions, and well worth one's close attention. Let me show you three strike-zone plots from BrooksBaseball.net.

1st inning

3rd inning

6th inning

V-Mart, as I like to call him, went 1 for 3, which is a .333 batting average, so he did rather well by traditional standards. More than that, though, we can see that in the first plate appearance McCarthy kept changing the plane on V-Mart, until V-Mart chased a pitch well off the plate that he foul-tipped into the catcher's glove. Tom Gage, of the Detroit News, tweeted that it was 'a heckuva pitch', which put me on alert.

In the third, V-Mart swung at the first pitch, a sinker to a spot that McCarthy hadn't used in the first PA, and sent a grounder to Mark Teixeira at first. Teixeira made the play unassisted.

In the sixth, the two previous PAs came together. McCarthy went back to working highish, outside and away. When that didn't work, he went back to the sinker, only this time he reversed the first PA, now working down and over the plate. V-Mart connected for a single on this one, and eventually would score on Nick Castellanos' single.

The only slight cloud on the evening was the nine hits that Rick Porcello surrendered. He made up for that with not issuing a single walk, but his performance was not dominant, and explains why I never felt comfortable given the Tigers' bullpen uncertainties. This was a good win for the Tigers, despite Alex Gordon's walk-off in Kansas City, which meant the Tigers could only keep pace with the Royals. I'm afraid I'm not entirely sold on #RoyalsDevilMagic yet, no matter how frequently Rany Jazayerli tweets about it. I'm still going with Jim Price's view that 'the MoJo is moving towards Detroit'.

26 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Today's top pitching match-up is in Philadelphia, between Gio Gonzalez and Cole Hamels. Despite this fact, the game itself is deemed as potentially not very entertaining at all. Why is this? Three factors are involved. The first is that as the Nationals are very likely to make the playoffs and the Phillies are improbable playoff contenders, the game carries little weight in terms of playoff value. A Nationals loss isn't going to hurt their chances all that much, and a Phillies win isn't going to put them in the running for a spot. Secondly, the Phillies bullpen isn't particularly watchable, largely because of a dreadful Left-on-Base percentage. Thirdly, Philles hitters lack power and don't run the bases very well. Basically, the Phillies are dragging down the game's value. So there. Also, I noticed that Detroit now has sneaked ahead of Kansas City in playoff probability. Meanwhile, Yankee fans should take note that their playoff odds are actually worse than those of Cincinnati. That should put things into context.

Texas vs Seattle            60
Yankees vs Detroit          59
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
Minnesota vs Kansas City    56
St Louis vs Pittsburgh      55
Atlanta vs Mets             55
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      48
Miami vs Angels             47
Boston vs Toronto           46
Cleveland vs White Sox      46
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Oakland vs Houston          45
Washington vs Philadelphia  44
Dodgers vs Arizona          44
Cubs vs Cincinnati          43

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

Thinking About Garbage Numbers

On Saturday night, I saw Jarred Cosart's tweet about Adeiny Hechavarria and his fielding metrics. Fielding numbers have been controversial for most of the history of sabermetrics, so anyone with any sense to begin with should regard them as 'informed opinions'. (I also hold the view that this is somewhat true of park factors, pitching numbers and even hitting numbers, albeit to lesser degrees as one advances along that list.) Inspired by Jarred Cosart, I went to check the garbage dump at FanGraphs, and this morning my thunder was stolen, somewhat, by Jeff Sullivan's post on the matter.

What Sullivan didn't look at, but what I did look at straightaway on Saturday night, was the lesser-known 'Inside Edge' numbers at FanGraphs. 'Inside Edge' is assembled by scouts who assign a difficulty value to plays. Read more here, and Inside Edge's website is here. I found Inside Edge interesting in thinking about Miguel Cabrera's fielding during 2013, in that it suggested Cabrera did extremely well with routine plays at third base, but was somewhat taxed the more he had to move. That fit my own impression better than some awful number spat out by UZR or DRS.

This link to 2014's qualified shortstops table of Inside Edge data is sortable, if you click on the column tops. What you will see is that Adeiny Hechavarria is about average at making routine plays (those Inside Edge rates as being 60% 'field-able' or more), but slumps down the list at plays I would call 'marginal' (40-60% 'field-ability'). Looking at 'difficult' plays (40% or less), however, Hechavarria puts in his best performance. Now, if you look at FanGraphs rating of his UZR or DRS in more detail, what you'll see is that he's below average in range and in turning the double play. If he can get to a ball, he's unlikely to make an error, but he doesn't get to all the balls that he could. We see this also borne out by the Inside Edge data I described above, in that he performs badly at what I called 'marginal' plays.

There's a sense that both sides of this argument are right, which is not really the way for a humble blogger like me to get attention and land a high-paying job in the industry. Hechavarria is very good at making plays most shortstops cannot, which will often occur at critical moments in a game, and good enough at making the routine plays. But he doesn't fill the space in between too well.

25 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The day's top pitching match-up, John Lackey vs Francisco Liriano, carries the key National League Central Division clash to the top of the day's chart. Tracking the playoff odds each day, one can see how much a single pairing of results makes one realise a race is much closer than it might feel. The Blue Jays lost quite a bit of ground over the weekend, although their odds were never good. Thus, both their game with the Red Sox and the game between the Rockies and the Giants start out with the same potential entertainment score, but once one adjusts for relative positions in the race, where the Giants remain on the cusp of the second wild-card spot, the Blue Jays' game falls five points in value. Running off a solid winning streak would probably help the Blue Jays immensely at this point.

St Louis vs Pittsburgh      59
Texas vs Seattle            58
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
Yankees vs Royals           57
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      48
Boston vs Toronto           46
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Oakland vs Houston          44
Miami vs Angels             44
Washington vs Philadelphia  42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

Tigers' 2014 Game 128: Miguel Cabrera's Double Plays

Miguel Cabrera hit into two double plays on Saturday night, the first of which killed off a rally, and the second of which possibly cost the Tigers an additional insurance run. In this case it appears that Cabrera made the right choice but got a bad result. Those pitches were in the general area where he has enjoyed the best success. Offered in evidence, a heat map taken from BrooksBaseball.net On this I have done my own 'eyeball Mark One' plot of where the balls would have been. I also include the two plots, again taken from BrooksBaseball.net, of the two plate appearances using PitchFX to show the balls relationship to the strike zone so you can decide if my locations are about right.

24 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The contest between the Mariners and the Red Sox finishes the weekend as the potentially most entertaining game. The series has been first or second each day, swapping with the Giants and Nationals yesterday. Both the Mariners and the Giants have been amongst the most potentially entertaining teams since I started doing this in the spring. The best pitching match-up is at Yankee Stadium, where Chris Sale goes against Chris Capuano, which just edges out Max Scherzer versus Kyle Gibson in Target Field, a ball park I have decided is not aesthetically appealing on the television. What's all that brown about? Aficionados of BETA development processes will be eager to learn that I have tweaked the formula quite significantly in that I have reduced the impact of the playoff value. Otherwise, by the end of the season it would have accounted for 100 per cent of the PEGS. As it stands, by the end of the season it will now only account for 70 per cent of the PEGS, and I may yet reduce that further. Tweet me (@frapaolotweets) if you have strong opinions about what value it should possess.

Seattle vs Boston           61
San Francisco vs Washington 60
Detroit vs Minnesota        58
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     57
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       56
Kansas City vs Texas        52
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        48
White Sox vs Yankees        48
St Louis vs Philadelphia    47
Angels vs Oakland           46
Houston vs Cleveland        45
Baltimore vs Cubs           45
San Diego vs Arizona        43
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

Summer of Discontent

Yesterday's ugly game between the Tigers and the Twins is, one hopes, that moment when the Tigers hit rock bottom. I'm thankful that it is the Royals who have chased down the Tigers this season, because they are the only AL Central team that I don't feel some Tigers-inspired animosity towards.

When one looks at the season overall, the Tigers have not been what we would be led to believe they were since the All-Star break. The last time they put together a winning streak of more than three games was one of five games 8-12 July (which included beating the Royals a couple of times). Since the All-Star game, the Tigers have only the one three-game winning streak, the beating up of the poor Colorado Rockies at home in the beginning of August. By contrast, the Tigers have suffered three four-game losing streaks in that time, if one includes the pre-break loss on 13 July against the Royals.

After last night, it is easy to blame the bullpen for the woes, but I don't see it like that. In 34 games starting 18 July, the Tigers have scored four or fewer runs 22 times. That is two-thirds of their games. Their record in those games is 5-17. They scored 119 runs and allowed 251, for a Pythagorean winning percentage of .207 against an actual one of .227. By contrast, in the 91 games before the break, the Tigers scored four or fewer runs 50 times, or just over half of their games. Their record in those games was 16-34. They scored 171 runs in those games, and allowed 300. That's an actual .320 winning percentage against a Pythagorean .265 winning percentage.

The Tigers are still beating their Pythagorean winning percentage in these low-scoring games. The big problem is a greater proportion of their games fall into this category, which is a fault of the hitting, not the pitching. (Don't forget, this excludes yesterday's game, because the Tigers scored six.

This picture, created using Bill Petti's spray chart tool sums up a serious problem for the Tigers, one that I think needs to be addressed in constructing the lineup. It compares Miguel Cabrera's batted-ball hits and outs for 2014 (right) versus 2013 (left). Note how this season the batted balls don't seem to fly as far, and how many fall just short of the seats. This power outage is killing the Tigers. The Big Man needs to adjust his approach, and maybe needs to be protection for Victor Martinez. Something must be done, because time is running out.

23 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Eyes interested in youthful pitchers will be drawn to Target Field today, where Buck Farmer goes for the Tigers in the day game, while Trevor May pitches for the home team in the night cap. Otherwise, your top pitching match-up is in Los Angeles tonight, with Jacob DeGrom facing Zack Greinke. If I didn't adjust for playoff chances, that would be your top game of the day, followed by the Angels vs Oakland, then a tie between Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee and San Francisco vs Washington.

Seattle vs Boston           63
San Francisco vs Washington 61
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       60
Detroit vs Minnesota        58 (consolidated score for both games)
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     57
Kansas City vs Texas        54
St Louis vs Philadelphia    48
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        46
White Sox vs Yankees        45
Houston vs Cleveland        44
Angels vs Oakland           43
Baltimore vs Cubs           42
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             42
San Diego vs Arizona        38

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

22 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Today sees notably weaker pitching match-ups than yesterday, and the teams at the top are characterised by strong bullpens, rather than a great pairing of starters. The top combination among the starters is Yordany Ventura going against Colby Lewis in Arlington, which only gets third place on the actual PEGS rating. Detroit's precarious playoff situation pushes an otherwise weak game up the chart, while the lack of playoff impact pushes the Angels visit to Oakland a bit further down than otherwise might be merited. But that's a big divisional contest. Pittsburgh's visit to Milwaukee is another interesting playoff-divisional set-to, but the Pirates' fading hopes have pulled that down a little, as they will depend quite a bit on results in Washington and Cincinnati to improve their odds.

San Francisco vs Washington 64
Seattle vs Boston           62
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       61
Kansas City vs Texas        58
Detroit vs Minnesota        55
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     55
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        48
St Louis vs Philadelphia    46
White Sox vs Yankees        45
Houston vs Cleveland        45
Angels vs Oakland           44
Baltimore vs Cubs           43
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             41
San Diego vs Arizona        39

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

21 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provided entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

PEGS for 21/VIII/2014

San Francisco vs Cubs  65
Atlanta vs Cincinnati  62
Detroit vs Tampa Bay   61
Cleveland vs Minnesota 55
Houston vs Yankees     53
San Diego vs Dodgers   53
Angels vs Boston       52
Arizona vs Washington  51

By pitching match-ups alone, today's top game is the West Coast encounter setting Tyson Ross against Clayton Kershaw.

Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Some months ago, I mentioned that I was thinking about an alternative to NERD, Fangraphs' method of determining the aesthetic appeal of a day's games. NERD has two problems. The first is that a couple of its categories correlate too closely, I'm told. More importantly, though, NERD is all about new-fangled Sabermetrics (which themselves are arguably outmoded), while I come from old-school Sabermetrics of the 1980s. So I've been working on my own system which is now ready to move from GAMMA to BETA format, and thus is ready to be shared with a wider audience.

For teams, I focus on the five tools of baseball players, plus my own relief preferences. So I assess batting points by hitting for power, getting on base (which replaces hitting for average) and baserunning. For fielding I go for range and arm, using UZR. For relievers I want to watch teams that don't change pitchers too often, who work fast and who leave runners on base. For pitchers, who receive an individual score, I look at the ability to work fast, to induce swings at pitches outside the zone, who miss bats, and who succeed at keeping walks and home runs down. Basically, I thought about the Leverage Index, and tried to emphasise those player skills that contribute to raising the leverage of a plate appearance for hitters, and reducing it for fielders and pitchers.

Everything is converted to the 20-80 scouting scale. 50 is the average score. Above 50 is more likely to be entertaining. Below 50 less so.

Here are today's Potentially Entertaining Game Scores (PEGS)

Atlanta vs Pittsburgh    70
Seattle vs Philadelphia  62
Detroit vs Tampa Bay     58
San Francisco vs Cubs    57
Kansas City vs Colorado  53
Cincinnati vs St Louis   50
Toronto vs Milwaukee     48
Cleveland vs Minnesota   46
Texas vs Miami           45
Angels vs Boston         45
Houston vs Yankees       45
Baltimore vs White Sox   45
Mets vs Oakland          43
Arizona vs Washington    42
San Diego vs Dodgers     42

Robbie Ray's Minor League Outings

So Robbie Ray has rejoined the Big Club, and is set to pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. We last saw him in May, when he followed two good outings against the Red Sox and the Twins with a bit of a confidence-wrecker versus the Rangers. How has he been doing since?

I like to use QMAX, a system developed in the days of the Big Bad baseball Annual, itself a lineal descendant of Bill James' old abstracts. QMAX is helpfully thought of as a means of distinguishing the varying quality of quality and non-quality starts. I have always found it especially useful in helping to understand minor-league outings, even though it was designed with Major-League statistics. It looks at two components of pitching, the ability to miss bats (stuff) and the ability to pitch in the zone (command). Outings are categorised by where they fall on a matrix, such as 'the Success Square', 'the Hit Hard region' and some don't fit into any category at all. The 'Power Precipice' is a zone where pitchers who successfully overpower hitters still find themselves teetering on the brink of a fall because they walk too many. For young players, that's a hopeful sign, because improved command will supplement good stuff. Here's a list of Robbie Ray's performances

27 May   Uncategorised
1 June   Hit Hard
12 June  Uncategorised
17 June  Uncategorised
22 June  Success Square/Power Precipice
27 June  Success Square
2 July   Uncategorised
7 July   Uncategorised
13 July  Hit Hard
20 July  Success Square
25 July  success Square
30 July  Hit Hard
4 August Success Square/Power precipice

Now what we know about minor-league baseball is that for pitchers, a lack of command at AAA will mean problems walking batters in the big leagues. We also know that AAA fielders aren't quite as good as major-league ones, so pitchers will suffer a few more hits than they might. In terms of hits given up, the Toledo Mud Hens look to be around league average.

The minor-league outings suggest that Ray is going to have some problems at the big-league level this time round. His command is wayward and he gives up too many hits to say he can get by on his stuff. His K/9 is really down this season, compared to when he was a National. In his uncategorised starts he is almost always let down by his walks. On the bright side, and something not measured in QMAX, is that he keeps the ball in the park. His HR/9 is 0.6 in AAA. If he can get a few "at 'em" balls, and continue to keep the ball in the park, he might serve as a useful stopgap for the Tigers in the present crisis. Tigers' fans need to keep an eye out for ground balls, and the Tigers turning the double play behind him. If that doesn't happen, the slack will have to be picked up by the hitters and the bullpen, and that hasn't been working out too well lately.

EarlyThoughts on Deadline Deals

The trade deadline day proved suitably dramatic. Here is a roundup of my thoughts on the deals involving the teams I keep an eye on.

David Price for Drew Smyly, Austin Jackson and Will Adames I don't think one can analyse this deal properly without taking into account the deal in the offseason that sent Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals, the decline of Justin Verlander and contract negotiations with Max Scherzer. Smyly didn't quite step into Fister's shoes, while the other two elements have put the Tigers in a position of not having more than one plausible candidate for #1 Ace status for 2015, after several years of having two. Trading for Price is a signal to Scherzer that the Tigers are re-tooling for a Scherzer-less future, and puts pressure on Scherzer to think carefully about whether his chances for post-season play may be as good for more dollars elsewhere. But, my goodness, it will take deep pockets to sign both Price and Scherzer.

Having said that, my own impression is that Price may be, as I suggested about Joakim Soria, a player whom the Tigers are getting possibly as he has passed his best. He did not start the season well, although he has come on strong subsequently. Furthermore, I don't like the effect that trading Jackson will have on the Tigers' outfield defence. Verlander, who already has problems, and the newly acquired Price may in particular suffer (although possibly not as much as Scherzer, which further adds to my view that some of this trade is about Scherzer). While Adames was showing promise, the presence of Jose Iglesias and Eugenio Salazar in the organisation meant the Tigers had the depth to deal away a good prospect. Overall, though, I think this trade did not particularly strengthen the team for 2014, but has made it worse in the medium term, if only a little bit. (But a lot if the Tigers cannot sign either of Price or Scherzer.)

Asdrubal Cabrera for Zach Walters This deal is about... well, it is really about hitting. The Nationals have had great difficulty driving in runs for most of the season, and Cabrera ought to make that aspect of their game better. But the deal is really about injuries. I don't think there would be a problem with Anthony Rendon at second base and Ryan Zimmerman at third base and Danny Espinosa on the bench, but the Z-Man can't stay in the field, and the Nationals are really not as good a team without him. I'm not at all convinced that a mid-season shift is going to be as painless for the Nationals' infield defence as some people think. I see the potential for major improvement for 2014 here, at no major cost to the medium-term outlook.

The Marlins' Six-Player Swap with the Astros This is the most appealing trade of the day for me. Jarred Cosart gives the Marlins some depth to the rotation, an area they have been lacking in this season. Enrique Hernandez and Andrew Wates are interesting prospects, and I do wonder if Hernandez is going to move to second base, a la Cabrera with the Nationals. I view both Jake Marisnick and Colin Moran as prospects with busty tendencies. Francis Martes is too far away right now for a team that has an outside chance at something in the immediate future not too gamble on giving away for pieces that might strengthen that chance. I see upgrades for the Marlins all round, here.