I did a bespoke projection for Chien-Ming Wang just the other day, but this time, more as food for thought, I'm going to present the straight Marcel projected ERA for Nationals' rotation options as listed by CBS Sportsline. ERA is obviously earned-run average. FIP is one of those relatively newfangled sabermetric stats that gives a value to home runs, walks and strikeouts that can be turned into an ERA value. It has a better predictive ability than ERA. It's worth mentally adjusting it for defence, in that a good defence will reduce the FIP, and a bad one will increase it.
Lannan 3.98 4.58
Marquis 4.23 4.35
Olsen 4.66 4.85 (shoulder injury)
JD Martin 4.41 4.81
Mock 4.76 4.21
Martis 4.37 4.76
Detwiler 4.26 3.95 (hip surgery)
Balester 4.83 4.90 (ribcage woes)
Stammen 4.42 4.45 (elbow chips)
Chico 4.65 4.72 (elbow surgery)
Wang 4.81 4.19 (shoulder surgery)
I've left off a few names, like Jordan Zimmermann, who isn't going to pitch this season, and some of the veterans lurking around the camp.
To say the least, we've got a lot of options. Also, there are some things that are hard to credit based on what we have seen so far, such as Balester posting an ERA under 5. Basically, going forward, one would expect on this basis to open the season with a rotation of:
Lannan, Marquis, Olsen, JD Martin and Mock.
Next man off the cab rank would be Martis, or maybe Chico. What will happen when Wang is fit is anyone's guess.
Of course, player options are going to play a part in the final outcome. And spring training will render these statistics more or less believable. After all, they are projections, not predictions.