Tuesday, 23 June 2009

Nationals' Fielding Weekly #2

Everybody asserted that the Nationals' broke their losing streak because they made more of the plays in the field they should have done. I'm not going to report that this is wrong; it's very right. Here's some numbers, showing Ultimate Zone Rating, Ultimate Zone Rating Adjusted to 150 Games (both from Fangraphs), and Revised Zone Rating (from The Hardball Times). I've also put in columns showing the changes from last week.

Player UZR Change UZR/150 Change RZR Change
Zimmerman (3b) 8.4 + 0.4 19.0 - 0.9 .767 -.004
Johnson (1b) -5.9 - 0.5 -11.3 + 0.9 .733 +.002
Guzman (ss) -4.9 + 0.1 -11.6 + 1.0 .747 +.006
Hernandez (2b) 1.6 + 1.2 4.3 + 0.1 .862 -.006
Dunn (lf) -4.9 - 0.3 -14.9 + 1.6 .800 +.031
Kearns (rf) 0.3 + 0.3 - 4.3 + 1.6 .875 -.004
Dukes (cf) -6.0 - 1.6 -23.7 - 4.5 .897 -.014
Willingham (lf) -0.1 - 0.1 0.8 - 0.7 .880 n.c.
Harris (cf) -5.9 + 1.3 -28.4 +14.5 .912 +.018
Dunn (rf) -6.3 n.c. -33.7 + 0.1 .756 n.c.
Belliard (2b) 2.1 + 0.1 13.2 + 0.2 .904 n.c.
Gonzalez (ss) -1.3 - 0.2 -11.9 n.c. .730 +.008
Dukes (rf) 1.3 + 0.5 10.6 + 6.9 .938 +.038
Maxwell (cf) 1.9 n.c. 36.4 + 0.5 .833 n.c.
Dunn (1b) -1.9 n.c. -47.5 + 0.1 .600 n.c.
Harris (2b) -1.7 n.c. -36.8 + 0.1 .733 n.c.
Milledge (cf) -0.5 - 0.1 - 9.4 - 1.0 .727 n.c.

Some notes.
1) UZR adjusts for other players and shows a +/- in terms of runs; RZR does not and works like batting average. That's why people who didn't actually play still get adjustments. It would help to know average RZR at each position, but instead you'll have to look at UZR to get an idea of how good they are relative to their peers.
2) In spite of all the noise in certain broadcasting quarters, the Nationals' problem with the leather was not on the infield, but the outfield. The top three RZR gains are all from outfielders. Result = 4 wins.
3) Dunn, Harris, Dukes, reading left to right, is probably the first-choice outfield at the moment. KEEP DUKES OUT OF CENTRE IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.
4) Gonzalez, given more playing time, hasn't risen to the occasion. I'd be inclined to abandon my 'groundball pitcher = Gonzalez at short' theory.

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