Tuesday, 29 May 2012

2012 Game 45

Highest Leverage PA:      2.2, PA#35 Minor GDP vs Strasburg, Braves 4th.
Highest WPA/LI Value:     .255, PA #44, Uggla HR vs Strasburg, Braves 5th.
Highest WPA/LI Fldg Play: .068, PA#35 Minor GDP vs Strasburg, Braves 4th.
QMAX rating:             (5,5) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:           Hero's Palm for Gorzelanny.
Batters' WPA/LI Values:
Espinosa       0.156
Harper         0.114
Tracy          0.061
Ankiel         0.036
LaRoche        0.028
Nady           0.007
Strasburg     -0.004
Desmond       -0.011
Gorzelanny    -0.033
Zimmerman     -0.043
Moore         -0.050
Flores        -0.074
And this one also belongs to the Nationals' hitting. This looks like Strasburg's worst start of the season so far, but the bullpen did a better job of holding back the Braves than they did on Friday night. Espinosa's and Harper's home runs were supported by crucial extra-base hits from Desmond, Ankiel and Nady. A solid team effort with the bats.

Sunday, 27 May 2012

2012 Game 44

Highest Leverage PA:     3.1, PA#58 Zimmerman 2B vs Hudson, Nationals 7th.
Highest WPA/LI Value:    .115, PA #7, Ankiel 3B vs Hudson, Nationals 1st
QMAX rating:             (5,5) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:           None.
Batters' WPA/LI Values:
Zimmerman      0.094
Ankiel         0.092
Desmond        0.069
Wang           0.020
Tracy          0.000
Harper        -0.013
Flores        -0.020
Lombardozzi   -0.036
Detwiler      -0.045
Espinosa      -0.073
LaRoche       -0.144
And this one belongs to the Nationals' hitting. I don't count this as Detwiler's worst outing, because he didn't give up many hits. His command (or the umpire's strike zone) deserted him in this game as he gave up more walks than innings pitched. Also, is the #5 starter now going to be by committee?

Having lamented the lack of a sequential offense in my last game digest, we were treated to two examples of that in this game, with single, double, single, hit by pitch and triple producing four runs in the first. Then, in the seventh, two walks and two doubles added another three runs. Zimmerman's doubles in both of these innings helped him top the WPA/LI list. And this happened against a good team (although the Reds have been looking a bit better of late)! This game filled me with hope in the way the series against the Orioles triggered some unhappy flashbacks.

Friday, 25 May 2012

Part One: Root, root, root for the...

...laundry? Player? Flag?

I found Tom Tango's stimulating post about how one decides who to root for resonating quite powerfully with me.

I was born and raised in Detroit, and so the first team I cheered for was the 'home team', the Detroit Tigers. I also naturally developed an interest in the Red Wings, the Lions and U of M football. (I had no interest whatsoever in basketball then.) Baseball was by far my favourite sport, and I was all for laundry then. However, in professional football, for reasons I don't really recall, I began to latch on to particular players. My interest in the Lions quickly waned, while I remained a fan of the NFL. The watershed moment came in 1973. Although I was all of twelve years old, the introduction of the designated hitter rule struck me as a deeply evil flouting of tradition. At some point in 1972 I had discovered that my little transistor radio could receive the Cincinnati Reds broadcasts. So I switched to the Reds, and became a NATIONAL LEAGUE fan.

I was rooting for rules and accessibility.

The next development drew on my football experience, in that I began to follow players more closely. In 1976, I joined an APBA league, and suddenly the idea of rooting for a single team at all seemed unpleasantly confining. Via The Sporting News, I was already getting a lot of information on individual players, and the APBA experience of breaking up rosters in a distribution draft simply shattered the link between person and laundry completely. My focus remained on the National League, but the old 'splendid isolation' from the nasty DH was ended. The trade of a player might lead me to follow a team, as in the case of Tony Perez going from the Reds to the Montreal Expos, which was my first link with the Nationals' franchise.

Two years later, I left Detroit for Southampton, England, and a new era in sports fandom. Basically, I was not a fan of much sport at all. Insofar as I was a fan, the flag trumped all. But that was a consequence of the sports I was following. I briefly tried to be an England cricket fan, but my main sporting interest from 1980 until 1995 was rugby union, and specifically the Five Nations' International Championship between England, Wales, Scotland, Ireland and France. However, I was not at first an England fan. Partly, this was because I was not accepted as 'English', with my harsh Michigan accent. But also because some similarity of appearance (mostly the hair) was found by my friends between me and the 'Blonde Bombshell' of the French back row, Jean-Pierre Rives. I remained a French fan through the years of Serge Blanco and then Philippe Saint-Andre and 'the Try from the End of the World'.

Rooting for players had been transformed into rooting for laundry, in that there was no reason for me to continue with 'Allez les Bleus after Rives had retired in 1984. But I did.

One reason for that was an English lock named Wade Dooley. This policeman from Lancashire was a horrible brute on the playing field, whose sins went unremarked by the rugby announcer Nigel Starmer-Smith, quite a patriotic Englishman in pointing out the cheating play of England's opponents. Together, they prevented me from following my natural inclination to back England (as I had done in cricket), until this attitude hardened to the point that to this day I cannot bring myself to support England in rugby, or any other sport with the exception of cricket, with any degree of comfort. Thanks, Starmer-Smith.

So rooting against a player worked just as effectively as rooting for one.

By the early 1990s I had been living in London for about ten years, but begun taking regular trips to Florence, Italy. Soccer ('football' in English) held little appeal to me up to then, but my love of Italy and the broadcasting of Football Italia on Channel 4 in England sowed the seeds of me becoming a fan of calcio. Florence's Fiorentina was (and still is) my team, but at the time I was also living a short bus ride from Selhurst Park, a soccer ground where Wimbledon FC played. Rules had intervened again, as rugby union had abandoned 'shamateurism' and officially gone professional. This coincided with some other playing-rule changes that paradoxcially made the game less interesting to watch (a minority opinion, to be sure).

Now I was rooting for 'place' — the teams representing my two residences so to speak (a stretch in the case of Wimbledon, who were tenants of the laughable Crystal Palace at Selhurst, but they were still my closest Premiership side).

2012 Game 43

Highest Leverage PA:     2.3, PA #43, LaRoche 4-3g vs Hamels, Nationals 6th.
Highest WPA/LI Value:    .204, PA #15, Fontenot 1B vs Jackson, Phillies 2nd.
QMAX rating:             Success Square (4,3) for Jackson.
Bullpen Award:           None.
Batters' WPA/LI Values:
Harper         0.086
Flores         0.071
Espinosa       0.009
Nady          -0.031
Zimmerman     -0.041
Ankiel        -0.065
Lombardozzi   -0.080
Jackson       -0.107
Desmond       -0.119
LaRoche       -0.225
Apologies for the week-long AWOL. The absence was partly a consequence of a decision to switch from my own system of 'leveraged win values' to the Baseball-Reference.com method of Win Probability Added/Leverage Index (or WPA/LI for short). I will explain the effect of this change in a subsequent post, but there is one important one. Those games I don't have a chance to listen to in 'real time' can be analysed more quickly with the help of Baseball Reference.

Wednesday's game with the Phillies was another example of those games where the bats let down a decent, rather than good, pitching performance. Edwin Jackson pitched just well enough to have a game that a team will win more often than not, but as WPA/LI shows oh-so-starkly, the Nationals' hitters couldn't hold up their end of the bargain. Three times the Nationals had a runner on third base, but couldn't convert that 'Red Zone' visit into a score. I am growing concerned at the Nationals' difficulty in sustaining a sequential offense, as opposed to the home runs like Adam LaRoche's 9th inning effort. But that's a topic for another post.

Friday, 18 May 2012

2012 Game 36

Highest Leverage PA:     2.5, PA #7, Baker 1B vs Strasburg, Padres' 1st.
Highest Clutch Value:    .130, PA #7, Baker 1B vs Strasburg, Padres' 1st.
QMAX rating:             Hit Hard (6,4) for Strasburg.
Bullpen Award:           None.
Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
LaRoche        0.116
Desmond        0.101
Gorzelanny     0.042
Harper         0.041
Lombardozzi    0.010
Strasburg     -0.008
Flores        -0.031
Ankiel        -0.053
Espinosa      -0.089
Bernadina     -0.126
Zimmerman     -0.143
A dispiriting game, this was quite the opposite of Monday night's. After this, one can only go home and hope for tomorrow being a better day. I was a bit concerned with Ryan Perry's innings. Either he's not getting enough work to stay sharp, or he's really the seventh man in the bullpen and ought to be looking nervously towards Chien Ming Wang's return. Meanwhile, I find myself thinking more playing time needs to be found for Steve Lombardozzi. He did a decent job in Ryan Zimmerman's absence, and seems to get his hits despite warming the bench for extended periods.

Thursday, 17 May 2012

A Note on Radio Guys

Back in 2010, when the San Diego Padres were in the race for the National League West title, I found myself often tuning in to their broadcasts. One of the things I do for Nationals (and other teams I might follow closely) is keep score. But when I do a 'bedtime broadcast', picking up a West Coast game not involving a team I am tracking, is just listen. It isn't quite an aural wallpaper, because I'm listening to hear opinions of other players, but I don't pay as close attention as I would to the mighty duo of Charlie Slowes and Dave Jageler.

Well, except I also have a habit of listening to the visiting broadcasts on GameDay Audio. I do this to get insight into the park.

Back in 2010, I was entertained by Leitner's voice, but this time I found his commentary made it very difficult to track the game statistically. (He also offered some bone-headed views on sabermetrics.) I post a negative note because this is the first time a visiting broadcaster has driven me away from their coverage in quite a while. I'm not sure if I've changed or if Leitner has.

2012 Game 35

Highest Leverage PA:     4.2, PA #78, Guzman GDP vs Burnett, Padres' 9th.
Highest Clutch Value:    .165, PA #56, Desmond 2B vs Mikoleas, Nationals' 6th.
Lowest Opp. Clutch Val:  -.218, PA #78, Guzman GDP vs Burnett, Padres' 9th.
QMAX rating:             Hit Hard (6,3) for Detwiler.
Bullpen Award:           Hero's Palm for Burnett.
Batters' Leveraged Win Values:
Desmond        0.234
Zimmerman      0.169
Bernadina      0.135
Flores         0.081
Tracy          0.062
Ankiel         0.041
Nady          -0.007
Stammen       -0.024
Leon          -0.032
Detwiler      -0.042
Harper        -0.084
Espinosa      -0.108
LaRoche       -0.149
This was a very good result for the Nationals. They turned around from a heartbreaker in Cincinnati, went the next evening with not much rest after a night of travel to play in unpleasant conditions, and hung on in a ding-dong battle until they came out the winners. It speaks a lot of the character of this team. Unlike a lot of sabermetrically minded types, I put some value on what can't be measured, because in results like this, though we can't measure it, we can see it on display. Furthermore, it wasn't just one player who carried the team, but an effort involving the top and the bottom of the lineup, and even the chaps off the bench.

A word, though, about Ross Detwiler. I've been very excited about his start to this season, but it is a bad time for him to suffer a bit of a slump, with Wang's return from the disabled list closer every day. Although he continues to exhibit exemplary control, he has got knocked around a bit in his last two starts. I'm just a little worried.