29 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

National League action reigns supreme for a change at the top, although the Nationals are going to have to play under American-League rules during their visit to Seattle. Those two teams have top-notch bullpens, one of the highest bullpen scores I've seen for a series. They also have the best pitching match-up of the day going for them, with blog favourite Jordan Zimmermann facing Felix Hernandez. The AL Central Division clash between Cleveland and Kansas City this weekend has a lot of potential for unsettling the playoff race. a sweep by Cleveland has the potential to bring several fringe teams, including the Indians, into the hunt for October. The match-up between Danny Salazar and Jason Vargas is not without its charms. Meanwhile, pity the poor Arizona Diamondbacks, once again at the bottom of the table, who send Josh Collmenter against Christian Bergman.

Milwaukee vs San Francisco  61
Washington vs Seattle       61
Cleveland vs Kansas City    58
Miami vs Atlanta            58
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh    54
Detroit vs White Sox        54
Cubs vs St Louis            50
Yankees vs Toronto          48
Oakland vs Angels           46
Minnesota vs Baltimore      45
Boston vs Tampa Bay         44
Philadelphia vs Mets        43
Texas vs Houston            43
Dodgers vs San Diego        42
Colorado vs Arizona         41

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

28 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

By virtue of its value in the race for the second Wild Card spot in the American League, this afternoon's game between the Yankees and the Tigers is potentially the most entertaining game of the day, by a little bit, over the game between the Rockies and the Giants. The Tigers once again have to draw on their minor-league reserves to send Kyle Lobstein out against Hiroki Kuroda. Overall, it is a mediocre, at best, day for marquee starting pitcher match-ups. Your best bet in this regard is, by a single point a surprising one — Collin McHugh vs Nick Tepesch, in the battle for Texas.

Yankees vs Detroit        60
Colorado vs San Francisco 57
Atlanta vs Mets           54
Minnesota vs Kansas City  53
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore    47
Cleveland vs White Sox    45
Oakland vs Angels         45
Texas vs Houston          43
Cubs vs Cincinnati        42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

27 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The order of today's games is almost identical to that of yesterday's, although Clayton Kershaw versus Wade Miley is a highly entertaining pitching match-up, pulling the Dodgers vs Arizona game up several places off the bottom. (I caught some of yesterday's game, which was no advertisement for the replay system.) Today's top pitching pair is in Detroit, where Shane Greene takes on David Price. However, if one includes bullpens in the calculation, you'll want to watch Atlanta versus the Mets.

Texas vs Seattle            60
Yankees vs Detroit          59
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
St Louis vs Pittsburgh      58
Minnesota vs Kansas City    54
Atlanta vs Mets             55
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      47
Cleveland vs White Sox      47
Miami vs Angels             45
Boston vs Toronto           45
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Dodgers vs Arizona          45
Oakland vs Houston          44
Washington vs Philadelphia  42
Cubs vs Cincinnati          43

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

26 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Today's top pitching match-up is in Philadelphia, between Gio Gonzalez and Cole Hamels. Despite this fact, the game itself is deemed as potentially not very entertaining at all. Why is this? Three factors are involved. The first is that as the Nationals are very likely to make the playoffs and the Phillies are improbable playoff contenders, the game carries little weight in terms of playoff value. A Nationals loss isn't going to hurt their chances all that much, and a Phillies win isn't going to put them in the running for a spot. Secondly, the Phillies bullpen isn't particularly watchable, largely because of a dreadful Left-on-Base percentage. Thirdly, Philles hitters lack power and don't run the bases very well. Basically, the Phillies are dragging down the game's value. So there. Also, I noticed that Detroit now has sneaked ahead of Kansas City in playoff probability. Meanwhile, Yankee fans should take note that their playoff odds are actually worse than those of Cincinnati. That should put things into context.

Texas vs Seattle            60
Yankees vs Detroit          59
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
Minnesota vs Kansas City    56
St Louis vs Pittsburgh      55
Atlanta vs Mets             55
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      48
Miami vs Angels             47
Boston vs Toronto           46
Cleveland vs White Sox      46
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Oakland vs Houston          45
Washington vs Philadelphia  44
Dodgers vs Arizona          44
Cubs vs Cincinnati          43

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

25 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The day's top pitching match-up, John Lackey vs Francisco Liriano, carries the key National League Central Division clash to the top of the day's chart. Tracking the playoff odds each day, one can see how much a single pairing of results makes one realise a race is much closer than it might feel. The Blue Jays lost quite a bit of ground over the weekend, although their odds were never good. Thus, both their game with the Red Sox and the game between the Rockies and the Giants start out with the same potential entertainment score, but once one adjusts for relative positions in the race, where the Giants remain on the cusp of the second wild-card spot, the Blue Jays' game falls five points in value. Running off a solid winning streak would probably help the Blue Jays immensely at this point.

St Louis vs Pittsburgh      59
Texas vs Seattle            58
Colorado vs San Francisco   58
Yankees vs Royals           57
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore      48
Boston vs Toronto           46
Milwaukee vs San Diego      45
Oakland vs Houston          44
Miami vs Angels             44
Washington vs Philadelphia  42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

24 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

The contest between the Mariners and the Red Sox finishes the weekend as the potentially most entertaining game. The series has been first or second each day, swapping with the Giants and Nationals yesterday. Both the Mariners and the Giants have been amongst the most potentially entertaining teams since I started doing this in the spring. The best pitching match-up is at Yankee Stadium, where Chris Sale goes against Chris Capuano, which just edges out Max Scherzer versus Kyle Gibson in Target Field, a ball park I have decided is not aesthetically appealing on the television. What's all that brown about? Aficionados of BETA development processes will be eager to learn that I have tweaked the formula quite significantly in that I have reduced the impact of the playoff value. Otherwise, by the end of the season it would have accounted for 100 per cent of the PEGS. As it stands, by the end of the season it will now only account for 70 per cent of the PEGS, and I may yet reduce that further. Tweet me (@frapaolotweets) if you have strong opinions about what value it should possess.

Seattle vs Boston           61
San Francisco vs Washington 60
Detroit vs Minnesota        58
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     57
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       56
Kansas City vs Texas        52
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        48
White Sox vs Yankees        48
St Louis vs Philadelphia    47
Angels vs Oakland           46
Houston vs Cleveland        45
Baltimore vs Cubs           45
San Diego vs Arizona        43
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             42

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

23 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Eyes interested in youthful pitchers will be drawn to Target Field today, where Buck Farmer goes for the Tigers in the day game, while Trevor May pitches for the home team in the night cap. Otherwise, your top pitching match-up is in Los Angeles tonight, with Jacob DeGrom facing Zack Greinke. If I didn't adjust for playoff chances, that would be your top game of the day, followed by the Angels vs Oakland, then a tie between Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee and San Francisco vs Washington.

Seattle vs Boston           63
San Francisco vs Washington 61
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       60
Detroit vs Minnesota        58 (consolidated score for both games)
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     57
Kansas City vs Texas        54
St Louis vs Philadelphia    48
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        46
White Sox vs Yankees        45
Houston vs Cleveland        44
Angels vs Oakland           43
Baltimore vs Cubs           42
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             42
San Diego vs Arizona        38

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

22 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Today sees notably weaker pitching match-ups than yesterday, and the teams at the top are characterised by strong bullpens, rather than a great pairing of starters. The top combination among the starters is Yordany Ventura going against Colby Lewis in Arlington, which only gets third place on the actual PEGS rating. Detroit's precarious playoff situation pushes an otherwise weak game up the chart, while the lack of playoff impact pushes the Angels visit to Oakland a bit further down than otherwise might be merited. But that's a big divisional contest. Pittsburgh's visit to Milwaukee is another interesting playoff-divisional set-to, but the Pirates' fading hopes have pulled that down a little, as they will depend quite a bit on results in Washington and Cincinnati to improve their odds.

San Francisco vs Washington 64
Seattle vs Boston           62
Atlanta vs Cincinnati       61
Kansas City vs Texas        58
Detroit vs Minnesota        55
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee     55
Tampa Bay vs Toronto        48
St Louis vs Philadelphia    46
White Sox vs Yankees        45
Houston vs Cleveland        45
Angels vs Oakland           44
Baltimore vs Cubs           43
Miami vs Colorado           42
Mets vs Dodgers             41
San Diego vs Arizona        39

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

21 Aug 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provided entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.

PEGS for 21/VIII/2014

San Francisco vs Cubs  65
Atlanta vs Cincinnati  62
Detroit vs Tampa Bay   61
Cleveland vs Minnesota 55
Houston vs Yankees     53
San Diego vs Dodgers   53
Angels vs Boston       52
Arizona vs Washington  51

By pitching match-ups alone, today's top game is the West Coast encounter setting Tyson Ross against Clayton Kershaw.

Potentially Entertaining Game Scores

Some months ago, I mentioned that I was thinking about an alternative to NERD, Fangraphs' method of determining the aesthetic appeal of a day's games. NERD has two problems. The first is that a couple of its categories correlate too closely, I'm told. More importantly, though, NERD is all about new-fangled Sabermetrics (which themselves are arguably outmoded), while I come from old-school Sabermetrics of the 1980s. So I've been working on my own system which is now ready to move from GAMMA to BETA format, and thus is ready to be shared with a wider audience.

For teams, I focus on the five tools of baseball players, plus my own relief preferences. So I assess batting points by hitting for power, getting on base (which replaces hitting for average) and baserunning. For fielding I go for range and arm, using UZR. For relievers I want to watch teams that don't change pitchers too often, who work fast and who leave runners on base. For pitchers, who receive an individual score, I look at the ability to work fast, to induce swings at pitches outside the zone, who miss bats, and who succeed at keeping walks and home runs down. Basically, I thought about the Leverage Index, and tried to emphasise those player skills that contribute to raising the leverage of a plate appearance for hitters, and reducing it for fielders and pitchers.

Everything is converted to the 20-80 scouting scale. 50 is the average score. Above 50 is more likely to be entertaining. Below 50 less so.

Here are today's Potentially Entertaining Game Scores (PEGS)

Atlanta vs Pittsburgh    70
Seattle vs Philadelphia  62
Detroit vs Tampa Bay     58
San Francisco vs Cubs    57
Kansas City vs Colorado  53
Cincinnati vs St Louis   50
Toronto vs Milwaukee     48
Cleveland vs Minnesota   46
Texas vs Miami           45
Angels vs Boston         45
Houston vs Yankees       45
Baltimore vs White Sox   45
Mets vs Oakland          43
Arizona vs Washington    42
San Diego vs Dodgers     42