Thinking About Garbage Numbers

On Saturday night, I saw Jarred Cosart's tweet about Adeiny Hechavarria and his fielding metrics. Fielding numbers have been controversial for most of the history of sabermetrics, so anyone with any sense to begin with should regard them as 'informed opinions'. (I also hold the view that this is somewhat true of park factors, pitching numbers and even hitting numbers, albeit to lesser degrees as one advances along that list.) Inspired by Jarred Cosart, I went to check the garbage dump at FanGraphs, and this morning my thunder was stolen, somewhat, by Jeff Sullivan's post on the matter.

What Sullivan didn't look at, but what I did look at straightaway on Saturday night, was the lesser-known 'Inside Edge' numbers at FanGraphs. 'Inside Edge' is assembled by scouts who assign a difficulty value to plays. Read more here, and Inside Edge's website is here. I found Inside Edge interesting in thinking about Miguel Cabrera's fielding during 2013, in that it suggested Cabrera did extremely well with routine plays at third base, but was somewhat taxed the more he had to move. That fit my own impression better than some awful number spat out by UZR or DRS.

This link to 2014's qualified shortstops table of Inside Edge data is sortable, if you click on the column tops. What you will see is that Adeiny Hechavarria is about average at making routine plays (those Inside Edge rates as being 60% 'field-able' or more), but slumps down the list at plays I would call 'marginal' (40-60% 'field-ability'). Looking at 'difficult' plays (40% or less), however, Hechavarria puts in his best performance. Now, if you look at FanGraphs rating of his UZR or DRS in more detail, what you'll see is that he's below average in range and in turning the double play. If he can get to a ball, he's unlikely to make an error, but he doesn't get to all the balls that he could. We see this also borne out by the Inside Edge data I described above, in that he performs badly at what I called 'marginal' plays.

There's a sense that both sides of this argument are right, which is not really the way for a humble blogger like me to get attention and land a high-paying job in the industry. Hechavarria is very good at making plays most shortstops cannot, which will often occur at critical moments in a game, and good enough at making the routine plays. But he doesn't fill the space in between too well.

2014 Marlins' Hitters' Batted Balls in Review #1

For reasons I hope to explain at some point later on, I am returning some comment on the Miami Marlins to this blog. I am quite enthusiastic about the information in my batted balls' surveys, so I'll resume coverage with a look at these.

This review uses a method involving batted balls to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.

As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection.

What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.

wRC    BBXR
Giancarlo  Stanton        76    57    19
Marcell  Ozuna            50    37    13
Christian  Yelich         50    41    13
Jarrod  Saltalamacchia    31    28     3
Henderson  Alvarez         2     3   - 1
Rafael  Furcal             1     3   - 2
Greg  Dobbs              - 1     1   - 2
Casey  McGehee            58    61   - 3
Derek  Dietrich           21    24   - 3
Jeff  Baker               14    18   - 4
Jeff  Mathis               8    12   - 4
Jake  Marisnick            0     4   - 4
Reed  Johnson             12    17   - 5
Donovan  Solano           11    16   - 5
Garrett  Jones            41    47   - 6
Ed  Lucas                 10    16   - 6
Adeiny  Hechavarria       27    39   -12

Stanton's offensive contribution to the team has been splendid this season, but he's been hitting a bit over his head. Ozuna and Yelich have also been exceeding reasonable expectations. By contrast Hechavarria has struggled to get his maximum hitting value. But what really interests me in comparing the Marlins to the other two teams I have been looking at, is how the sort of range which falls within what I would consider random variation is largely negative for the marlins. Only Saltalamacchia has been doing a little bit better. This could be a harbinger of a slight improvement in the Marlins' offensive fortunes, provided those first three hitters keep having such good fortune.