With the mea culpa out the way, let's talk leather. No, not Jim Bowden's supposed trouser preferences, but the gloves of our ballplayers. Actually, maybe you wouldn't want me to draw attention to this. I've seen the figures already.
To recapitulate, the columns below show the Nationals' fielding as measured by Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), a fielding metric devised by Mitchell Lichtman of The Book fame. It's widely accepted as the 'gold standard' of fielding. The first column is 'raw UZR', which measures the total effect of a player's fielding at a given position, in terms of runs above or below a notional 'average fielder' over the innings he played this past season. The second column is the gain or loss since the last time I did this exercise. The third column is UZR/150, or the total UZR score normalized to what it would be over 150 games. It has a comparative value—you immediately can see how one player at a position compares to another. The fourth column is the gain or loss in UZR/150 since last time. Next we have Revised Zone Rating RZR, which measures how many times a player caught the ball, given the chances to catch the ball. Then the gain or loss, etc. Finally, the average RZR at that player's position in MLB. The order is total innings played at that position. The guys in bold are the biggest gainers in each of the three columns. The cut-off point is 120 innings.
Player UZR Change UZR/150 Change RZR Change MLBaverage
Zimmerman (3B) 17.9 + 5.2 14.1 - 2.8 .748 -.021 .712
Guzmán (SS) - 2.5 + 1.9 - 1.8 + 1.2 .785 +.016 .801
Johnson (1B) - 5.8 + 0.2 - 5.9 + 0.9 .776 +.006 .782
Willingham (LF) - 4.7 - 2.3 - 7.1 - 1.1 .925 +.006 .894
Dukes (RF) 3.6 - 3.6 - 5.8 - 4.3 .893 -.005 .908
Dunn (1b) -13.9 - 6.6 -18.7 +16.7 .651 +.115 .782
Dunn (LF) -14.4 - 2.0 -28.4 - 4.1 .832 n.c. .894
Hernandez (2B) 2.0 + 0.8 3.7 + 1.4 .859 +.005 .813
Harris (CF) - 6.1 - 1.0 -13.6 + 2.4 .935 -.003 .931
Morgan (CF) 13.0 - 0.2 31.7 - 4.2 .960 -.004 .931
Kearns (RF) 2.1 + 0.4 11.1 + 5.8 .893 n.c. .908
Gonzalez (2b) - 3.0 + 0.8 - 5.8 +10.5 .775 +.018 .813
Belliard (2B) 2.2 - 1.1 5.0 - 6.3 .871 -.022 .813
Gonzalez (SS) - 3.6 + 2.2 -26.2 +13.8 .691 +.043 .801
Dukes (CF) - 4.8 + 0.3 -15.1 + 3.5 .898 n.c. .931
Willingham (RF) - 1.0 - 0.3 -5.3 - 3.0 .966 +.004 .905
Maxwell (CF) 5.0 n/a 26.2 n/a .932 n/a .931
Dunn (RF) - 8.1 + 0.2 -33.0 + 5.8 .761 n.c. .908
Harris (LF) 1.9 n/a 12.6 n/a .846 n/a .894
Desmond (ss) 0.3 n/a 0.9 n/a .738 n/a .801
Orr (2B) 3.9 n/a 27.4 n/a .891 n/a .813
Trying to estimate the impact of fielding, of course, is an inexact business. UZR doesn't think Willingham is as good a fielder as RZR does, for example. Nonetheless, we can make some assessments.
1) Going by RZR, which for various reasons I prefer, the Nationals' fielding wasn't as bad as one might think, but it's really not at all good.
2) Adam Dunn dramatically improved as a firstbaseman; but he still was the worst in the league.
3) Alberto Gonzalez was not an improvement over Anderson Hernandez.
4) Desmond probably isn't a significant improvement over Guzmán at shortstop. It may be that Guzmán still ought to be the starting shortstop next season. Unless he's traded.
5) Zimmerman might be a Gold Glove thirdbaseman, but his statistics are not conclusive evidence. Nonetheless, he is a singular bright spot on the infield.
6) Dukes was an average fielder for a while, but by season's end he wasn't. Combine that with his batting problems, and one has to wonder if his off-field baggage really renders him a marginal major-leaguer.
7) Maxwell and Morgan are pretty good centrefielders.
8) Willingham is an enigma. Is he average or not?
9) Rizzo basically traded away his best infield options, where he had a choice, suggesting he doesn't rate fielding particularly highly.
I'll return to the fielding again, but my thoughts are currently moving toward the lineup.
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